739
FXUS63 KLMK 191755
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1255 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  into tonight. The highest threat of severe weather will be across
  southern Indiana with a conditional severe threat across Kentucky.

* Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes,
  damaging winds, and large hail.

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Skies have mostly broken up over the region and we are beginning to
see better surface warming. Dew points have also increased a degree
or two in the upper 50s and low 60s. Currently in a lull as morning
WAA precip has exited the Bluegrass region and storms will begin to
develop over the Mississippi River. Over the next few hours, the
upper trough and low pressure system will approach from the west.
This will bring the left exit region of an upper jet to increase
lift over the region. Warming temperatures and modest dew points
will help to increase instability. A strong LLJ will push in from
the west, which will increase low-level shear. Therefore, the
mesoscale environment is present for isolated to scattered severe
storms this afternoon. Where all of these features come together is
north of the Bluegrass/western KY parkway, with this greatest threat
along and northern of I-64 in southern Indiana and I-71 in northern
Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 408 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Early this morning, we are seeing some moderate to briefly heavy
rain showers move north from TN into south-central KY. These showers
are being driven by upper level divergence, mid-level vorticity wing
over the area, and WAA regime due to weak 850mb LLJ nosing into
southern KY. Model sounding and mesoanalysis suggest up to 250 J/kg
of MLCAPE across that area, so can`t rule out seeing some ticks of
lightning with any stronger updrafts and colder cloud tops. Per hi-
res CAMs, we`ll see these isolated to scattered showers and few
storms continue to shift northward into central KY through the
morning. Little to no severe potential is expected with these due to
the limited instability, the elevated nature of these cells, and
meager shear profiles.


===== Severe Storms Possible Today =====

A sfc low is expected to deepen throughout today as it shifts from
eastern Kansas this morning to the Great Lakes by tonight, and will
be responsible for a Slight risk for severe weather later today
north of the KY Pkwys. Outside of the isolated precip chances across
central KY this morning, most of the area should remain mostly dry
today, with at least some partial clearing of clouds expected
through the afternoon. As the sfc low tracks to the northeast, it
will lift a warm front through the region, placing our forecast area
within the broad warm sector. Temps are already starting out quite
mild with mid to upper 50s this morning, but should see temps warm
into the upper 60s and low 70s by the afternoon. Combined with sfc
dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s, we will realize marginal
instability this afternoon in a high shear environment, leading to
the potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

Even with convection expected later today, there remains some
discrepancy between hi-res guidance, especially with the NAM as it
places some slight subsidence within the column, which limits the
amount of convective activity compared to other model suites due to
interrupting the expected ascent. Despite these concerns, there is
rather good agreement in other components. Model soundings depict a
favorable environment for supercells this afternoon, with MLCAPE
increasing to several hundred J/kg, substantial bulk wind shear
parameters, and backed sfc winds. We`ll see the LLJ strengthen this
afternoon underneath strong mid-level SW winds, which suggest long,
straight hodographs, indicating that we may see splitting
supercells. These supercells will be capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail.

Convective initiation will likely take place to our west sometime
early afternoon across central IL and southwestern IN, within
proximity to the warm front and where the steeper low level lapse
rates will be. This convection then may move eastward along the warm
front and arrive in our area as somewhat discrete supercells, but
could see some small clusters as well. Overall, the greatest tornado
threat for our area remains primarily across southern IN, where
there is slightly better low level curvature in the wind profile,
but still seeing elongated hodographs. Given the magnitude of the
shear profiles, we could see a few supercells end up just south of I-
64 too. South of the KY Pkwys, any convection looks to be much more
isolated, as it will be separated from the warm front but still
within the warm sector.

As we get into the evening time frame, there is good hi-res
consensus on seeing discrete convection turn into more of a broken
linear storm mode ahead of the approaching cold front. Instability
will be gradually decreasing, but strong low-level jetting will keep
our SRH and wind shear parameters quite high. Through the evening,
the threat remains possible for some quick spin-ups embedded in the
broken line, along with damaging winds. Convection will likely
continue into the overnight, though we will see a gradual weakening
trend as instability wanes later into the night. Convection could be
departing our area by 06z tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 408 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

===== Friday into the Weekend =====

Drier conditions are expected for Friday in the wake of the
departing cold front. We`ll see increasing sunshine as cloud cover
clears, though we`ll be in a CAA regime behind the front. Lingering
sfc pressure gradient, along with a backside LLJ moving over the
region, will promote additional gusty winds during the day, with
some mix down leading to gusts in the 25-30 mph range. Per the LREF
grand ensemble and the NBM, best chances for exceeding 30 mph gusts
will be north of I-64. Friday will be one of those unique days where
the daily high occurs at or shortly after midnight, with temps
falling through the entire morning to the upper 40s and low 50s for
most. With some afternoon sun, we could see temps rebound slightly
into the upper 50s and low 60s, with the greatest recovery taking
place across south-central KY.

A secondary sfc low will develop and move across the Gulf States
over the weekend ahead of a weak shortwave. However, majority of the
precip chances will remain south of our area, but can`t completely
rule out a few showers sneaking north from TN into our southern
counties. Chances remain low with only a 20% south of the Pkwys for
early Saturday morning. We`ll have quite a dry layer up to 700mb to
work through, so a 20% PoP might even be somewhat generous. Some
additional low precip chances linger into Saturday evening
underneath upper level troughing, though there remains some
variation on best moisture axis placement over the weekend. Some
rain-snow mix or a switch over to light snow may be possible for
Saturday night into Sunday morning as temps drop into the upper 20s
and low 30s. No accumulations expected here given limited QPF, but
could see some light accums in far eastern KY where better upslope
flow occurs.

There is higher confidence on seeing our temps cool down for Sunday,
with highs remaining in the 30s for most. We`ll be in a stronger CAA
pattern with deeper NW flow ushering in cooler air from the high
plains. Mostly dry weather is expected, with a lingering shower
possible in the Bluegrass area for Sunday morning.

===== Next Week =====

A dry stretch of weather is expected for Monday through Wednesday
morning as an expansive sfc high pressure moves across the country.
Our coldest day of the long term could be Monday, with highs
slightly cooler than Sunday with only mid 30s forecast. However, our
coldest overall temperatures will be Monday night into Tuesday
morning, thanks to the sfc high being directly overhead, leading to
nearly calm winds and clear skycover. Low temps in the upper teens
to low 20s forecast for Tuesday morning.

Our next rain chances during next week could arrive by Wednesday
afternoon, when we see another sfc low track across the Great Lakes.
This would open the door for WAA pattern to return, leading to 50s
back in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, along with the
chance for light to moderate rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

MVFR scattered to broken skies are present and will steadily lift
over the next several hours. Scattered showers and storms are
beginning to develop over western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
They showers and storms will move ENE and intensify. Strong winds,
hail, and tornadoes will be possible. These storms will occur along
the warm front this afternoon. Later this evening, a cold front will
move SE through the region, bringing a line of showers and storms.
These storms may be strong. LLWS may be present for a few hours
after frontal passage. Gusty westerly winds will continue through
the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...SRW