745
FXUS63 KLMK 231423
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1023 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Frontal boundary to pass through the region this evening and
  through the overnight with scattered showers/storms possible.

* Pattern change aloft will lead to well below normal temperatures
  to close out August. Overnight lows are likely to drop into the
  upper 40s in spots. Record low temperatures over in the Bluegrass
  region could be tied/broken Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday mornings.

* Consistent signal for possible showers and storms late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Morning satellite imagery showing mostly sunny skies across the
region this morning.  The exception is down across the Lake
Cumberland region of southern KY where warm advection scheme has led
to the development of clouds and showers.  Temperatures across the
area were in the mid to upper 70s, with a few spots nearing 80.

Current forecast remains on track this morning and into the
afternoon hours. Best chances of scattered showers looks to remain
across the Lake Cumberland region.  Afternoon highs in 83-88 degree
range continue to look good.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Ridging and surface high pressure has allowed skies to remain clear
thus far. However, moisture trapped within the 925-850mb layer is
allowing patchy areas of low stratus to develop at this hour.
Similar to previous nights, this low stratus is expected to spread
out over the region. Over most of the region, we have seen patchy
fog develop, and more areas of fog over the northern half of the
region. Depending on the extent of the low stratus, this could
inhibit further fog development. Will continue to monitor
observations and area cameras. An SPS for fog may be needed in the
next few hours if fog continues to develop.

Within an hour or two of sunrise fog is expected to burn off.
Though, low stratus may stick around like previous mornings. Model
soundings do show a slow mix out of these clouds and given
persistence, will increase cloud coverage and go with slightly
cooler high temperatures for the day.

Through the day, upper ridging will retreat back to the west as a
closed upper low moves into the Great Lakes region and broad
troughing moves into the lower Ohio Valley. Over the southeastern
third of the CWA, we will see a brief return of southwesterly flow
and some limited moisture. This limited moisture, coupled with
troughing and temperatures in the mid 80s, will likely bring
isolated to scattered showers and storms. In this area, we will see
SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg in the late afternoon, which could
produce a strong storm, though confidence is low and severe weather
is not expected.

In the overnight hours, the cold front will move through the region
and exiting to the southeast around sunrise Sunday. Out ahead of the
cold front, broken clouds will move into the region. As the front
moves through an isolated shower will be possible along the front,
though chances are very low due to little available moisture in the
region. This cold front will reinforce slightly below normal
temperatures, a wind shift back to the northwest, and drier
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Sunday through Wednesday Night...

Upper troughing will remain over the Ohio Valley through the middle
of next week. A shortwave riding along the broader troughing will
usher in much cooler temperatures beginning Monday. Sunday high
temperatures look to be in the low-to-mid 80s, where Monday through
Wednesday looks to be in the mid-to-upper 70s. Low temperatures
during this time will likely be in the upper 40s and low 50s, and
urban areas near the mid 50s. Low temperature records may be in
jeopardy these mornings over LEX/SDF/FFT. Cold max temperatures look
to hold at this time, though forecasted highs may only be within a
few degrees of records.

Strong high pressure at the surface will help to keep conditions dry
and skies clear. These conditions will be quite comfortable and a
nice glimpse of fall.

Thursday through End of Next Week...

Upper troughing begins to shift eastward on Thursday and ridging
over the western CONUS will begin to push east and broaden. Late
week, the lower Ohio Valley will likely be between these two
features and under northwesterly flow. Guidance is consistent on
bringing a shortwave into the region which would bring a chance for
showers and storms. Temperatures will likely remain below normal in
the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Low stratus may stick around for a few hours after sunrise, similar
to previous days. Though fog is expected to thin within an hour or
two of sunrise. By the afternoon, stratus will mix out leaving SCT-
BKN Cu and steady westerly winds. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening, though impacts
to terminals is low due highest chances being over the Lake
Cumberland area. A cold front will move into the Ohio Valley
overnight, bringing BKN mid-level clouds out ahead.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....SRW