099
FXUS63 KLMK 061051
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
651 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today from the west.

*  The heaviest rainfall is expected to begin late tonight
   and last through Tuesday evening.

*  Widespread and beneficial rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" expected
   through Tuesday Night. Isolated instances of 2.5+" possible.

*  Cooler and more seasonal temperatures arrive by late week, with
   a mostly dry forecast anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 437 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Today, the axis of the upper ridge now extends north from Maine.
Southern Indiana and central Kentucky sit just inside the western
edge of the ridge, but not for long. A positively tilted upper
trough axis extends from southern California northeast through the
Dakotas and is moving eastward. At the surface, a high sits off the
Atlantic Coast and continues to funnel moisture into the CWA ahead
of an approaching cold front extending from a surface low in
northern Quebec.

Precipitable water values currently around 1.25" over the eastern
half of the CWA and around 1.5-1.75" over the western half of the CWA
will continue to climb to near 2" in the west to 1.5" in the far
eastern areas of the CWA by this evening. As moisture levels
continue to climb with light isentropic lift taking place, showers
will begin to develop this morning. At first, activity will be
isolated to scattered, but as the day continues expect coverage to
become more widespread. Most of the activity during the first half
of the day will be over the western half of the CWA with more
isolated activity farther east.

Model soundings continue to show a very stable profile with little
wind shear. Expecting mostly showers, but some embedded thunder
could be possible. High temperatures are expected to climb into the
mid 70s over the western CWA, in the area that sees more rainfall,
to the low 80s over the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland areas.

Tonight, the overall set-up remains about the same, but showers will
work farther east, filling in the Lake Cumberland area on their way
to eastern Kentucky. Temperatures under continued rainfall and light
warm air advection are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Tuesday, as the cold front gets closer, precipitation chances
fill in becoming widespread over the whole CWA. Rainfall also is
expected to be its heaviest during this time as precipitable water
values climb to near and even over 2" for at least part of the day
over the whole CWA. Sounding still show long skinny profile with
little in the way of instability with weak lapse rates, but some
better shear is available during a limited window. It`s not overly
impressive, but it`s better than we`ve seen in awhile.

By Tuesday night, the cold front pushes it way through central
Kentucky, bringing an end to the rain. Total expected rainfall has
slightly increased from what was expected yesterday. Now, the
forecast has every county in the CWA seeing slightly over an inch to
slightly over 2", and a few areas could see 2.5+".

Ahead of the front, high temperatures are expected to be in the 70s
on Tuesday, and upper 60s in parts of the northern half of the CWA
to the low to mid 70s over southern Kentucky.

Behind the front, upper riding returns, clearing skies. Cold air
advection ahead of a passing surface high dropping southeast through
the Great Lakes will keep the mid 60s to low 70s around for Thursday
under mostly sunny skies, but as the high passes, cold air advection
weakens on Friday, lifting temperatures to the low to mid 70s on
Friday and Saturday. Sunday and Monday will see the return of some
higher 70s as skies remain mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Light showers ahead of an approaching cold front are beginning to
pop up on radar. Minimal impacts are expected today, but tonight as
rain showers increase, ceilings and visibilities will begin to fall.
Tonight, IFR conditions will begin working slowly eastward over HNB
and could reach SDF and BWG before continuing farther east on
Tuesday. Wind currently is expected to remain relatively light.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW