646
FXUS63 KLMK 171510
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1110 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Breezy, cooler, and less humid weather today.

*  Rain chances return Monday with intervals of showers through at
   least Tuesday night.

*  Unseasonably cool temperatures expected late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the region this
morning.  Temperatures were in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  Some
middle 70s were already being seen down along the KY/TN border.

For the rest of the morning and afternoon, mostly sunny skies are
expected.  Some high clouds will likely pass across our far
southwest this afternoon.  Afternoon highs in the middle 70s are
expected across southern IN and the northern half of Kentucky. Upper
70s and lower 80s are generally expected along and south of the
Cumberland Parkway.  Current forecast has this well and only did
some minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Deep occluded low continues to spin over northern Wisconsin, with
the warm conveyor belt and associated severe convection now well to
our south and east, but the sfc cold front still to push through the
Ohio Valley. That boundary should cross the area later this morning,
and a respectable cold advection surge will result in breezy,
cooler, and less humid conditions today. Winds should diminish
fairly quickly tonight as a weak high pressure ridge settles into
the area. Temps today and tonight should run fairly close to climo
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and lows from the mid 50s to
near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Will begin Sunday with shortwave ridging aloft, but that pattern
becomes more amplified and negatively tilted as another low kicks
out onto the High Plains. Weak isentropic lift could trigger a few
showers across south central Kentucky during the day, but better
chances hold off into the night. A stronger moisture feed and
advancing warm front will bring increasing chances for precip late
Sunday night into Monday morning.

The first part of the work week will be active with waves of
convection crossing the area from early Monday through at least
Tuesday evening as the closed low slowly makes its way east. Best
instability and shear to support organized storms will remain off to
our west, but depending on time of day we could have just enough for
a few stronger storms.

Precip chances linger into Wednesday with the cold pool, but the
trof axis finally passes over during the day and upper heights start
to rise again Wednesday night. Temps solidly below normal late in
the week in cool NW flow as the upper low slowly crosses the Great
Lakes. Just enough cyclonic curvature to keep a 20% POP in for
Thursday, but better confidence in dry weather on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period. Sfc cold front
will push through the terminals this morning, with a westerly wind
surge behind it.  Look for sustained winds 15-20 kt with plenty of
gusts near 25 kt by late morning, and continuing until just before
sunset. Skies will remain mostly clear, with some question regarding
mid-level cigs as the cold pool crosses SDF and LEX. Given model
forecast soundings vs what we`re observing now, will just keep it a
scattered mid-level deck, with clearing by 00Z. Dry column will
limit fog potential heading into Sunday morning even as winds lay
down under a weak ridge of sfc high pressure.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM....RAS
AVIATION.....RAS