857
FXUS63 KLMK 181908
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
308 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Unseasonably warm and windy today with gusts up to 30-35 mph.

*  Shower and thunderstorm chances over weekend. A few stronger
   storms are possible in southern Indiana Saturday afternoon and
   evening. Stronger storms may again be possible very late Sunday
   night into Monday morning.

*  Dry and seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday before rain chances
   return later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Dry, mild, and breezy conditions continue this afternoon. Gusts have
ranged mostly in the 25 to 35 mph range this afternoon, however a
few notable gusts in the upper 30s have also been observed. Winds
should slacken a bit around sunset, but overall steady to
occasionally gusty winds will continue into the overnight. Also
seeing some dry air mix down across our eastern counties, however
given that we are greening up and area RAWs obs have 10 hour fuel
moistures mostly in the 8-9% range not too concerned about
widespread fire weather concerns. Will continue to monitor.

Expecting showers and storms to mainly stay north and west of our
CWA tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. That being said, we
could get some outflow dominant storms to sneak into our NW counties
mainly in the overnight and pre-dawn hours. Supposed an isolated
severe wind gust could occur, but overall not overly concerned given
that the threat seems to be a bit more focused farther NW.

We will have to watch where the convectively reinforced outflow
boundary ends up tomorrow morning and into the day, because this
will essentially become the new boundary and be focus for any
renewed convective development through the day. Like the idea of a
Marginal Risk over the NW half where HREF probs show a 50-60% chance
of 500 J/KG of ML CAPE, however probs virtually drop off to 0 for
1000 J/KG. So, just enough instability for perhaps a few isolated
strong wind gusts should convective development occur. Overall
confidence is low and certainly acknowledge that it is a conditional
threat on where the outflow boundary ultimately ends up.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Saturday Night - Monday...

A stalled sfc boundary over the region with an active southwest flow
will result in showers and storms Sat night especially over southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky closer to the boundary.

Sunday a strong low pressure system moves northeast from the Plains
to the upper Midwest pulling the Ohio Valley boundary north as a
warm front.  As a result, in southern Indiana and central Kentucky
only isld-sct showers/storms will be possible for part of Sunday.
Most locations could be mainly dry most of Sun-Sun evening with warm
breezy conditions in the warm sector.

Late Sunday night into Monday morning a line of showers/storms just
ahead of the cold front will pass through the region.  There`s
decent shear for storms to work with but elevated CAPE is low.
Overall most models indicate showers/storms to be in a decaying
state passing through southern IN/central KY during an unfavorable
diurnal time Mon morning.  As of this writing, perhaps strong storms
may be possible but no clear severe threat looks apparent for late
Sun night/Monday morning, though this could change as we get closer
to the event.

Total rainfall Sat night through Monday looks to total less than 1
inch.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday
afternoon and then drop back into the low to mid 70s Monday behind
the cold front.

Tuesday - Friday...

Sfc high pressure briefly works in to for Tuesday and most of
Wednesday keeping the area dry. Slightly cooler yet seasonal
temperatures are expected behind the front.  Highs look to be in the
low to mid 70s for Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

The weather pattern quickly becomes active again as southwest flow
sets up along another stalled frontal boundary for the second half
of the week.  Shower/storm chances will return Thu/Friday and
possibly into next weekend.  Temperatures look to be slightly above
normal Wed-Fri with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the
50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through this forecast cycle,
although will have some potentially impactful weather. First off,
will continue to see gusty SSW surface winds between 20 and 30 mph,
gusting up between 30 and 40 mph at times. Will see some mid and
upper sky cover too, but no precipitation expected at the TAF sites
the rest of today.

Tonight, showers and storms will mainly stay north and west of our
airports, however HNB/SDF could possibly see some showers or a stray
storm in the pre-dawn into Saturday morning, depending on how far
south outflow makes it. Lower ceilings will likely find their way
into HNB by Saturday morning, with the best chances for some showers
and storms lingering into the day. BWG/LEX/RGA expected to stay dry.
Could have a marginal LLWS component tonight, which is most likely
at BWG/RGA.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...BJS