611
FXUS63 KLMK 191907
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Beautiful weather over the weekend. Temperatures in the low to
   mid 70s for Sunday.

*  Well above normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday with
   mostly dry weather.

*  Midweek cold front to bring a return to near normal temperatures
   and a small chance for showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A 1036mb sfc high sits over the eastern US today, which is keeping a
strong influence on tranquil weather for us. Temperatures have
reached the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon, with plenty of
sunshine. A few thin clouds are moving across south-central Kentucky
today, but the dry conditions will remain.

For tonight, the weak shortwave near the Great Lakes region will
flatten out the eastern US ridge, though strong surface high
pressure will continue to influence quiet weather across our region.
Skies will be mostly clear overnight with light and variable winds.
This should make for a great radiational cooling night, with
temperatures getting down to the lower 40s for most locations. Our
common cool spots or low-lying areas could possibly have
temperatures in the upper 30s. Patchy dense fog will be most likely
near the river valleys before sunrise tomorrow.


For tomorrow, any morning river valley fog should burn off after
sunrise, leading to another sunny day for the region. Surface high
pressure will continue with afternoon temperatures reaching the low-
to-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Synopsis...Mid-level pattern at the beginning of the period will
still depict an anomalous ridge extending across the Eastern and
Central US attached to a subtropical high retrograding along the
Gulf of Mexico and a cut-off low over the Four Corners ahead of an
approaching Pacific trough. During the first half of next week, the
Pacific trough will help eject the upper low towards the Plains and
eventually the Midwest while the northern extent of the ridge moves
to the east and the subtropical high keeps tracking towards northern
Mexico. The Pacific trough will eventually move across the US/Canada
border and amplify southward into the Mid Atlantic thanks to the
TUTT near Bermudas, supporting a frontal passage during the second
half of the week.

Model Confidence/Evaluation...There is good model agreement among
the global deterministic guidance through Wednesday regarding the
large-scale pattern evolution. On the other hand, uncertainty
increases by the end of the week associated with the trough
amplification over the East CONUS and especially the upstream
shortwave energy track and intensity. Most of the consulted guidance
is showing at least one compact shortwave trough moving close enough
to the forecast area to increases rain chances, but confidence in
this scenario is ow at the moment. There is high confidence in the
temperature oscillation thorughout the week.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...First period will be characterized by a
warming trend and overall dry conditions. Little change from surface
high pressure and dry airmass that has kept the region rain free.
Surface winds shifting from the south to the southwest will foment
well above average temperatures with highs reaching the 80-degree
mark Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, as well. Pressure gradient
could be strong enough on Wednesday to support breezy winds. Cloud
coverage will increase by midweek as the upper heights steadily fall
ahead of the trough/cold front.

Thursday - Sunday...Cold front will swing by the region Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Northerly winds will allow CAA and
temperatures returning to near seasonal values for October. There is
a small chance of isolated showers during the frontal passage, but
limited moisture and weak forcing keeps confidence low to include it
in this forecast package. There might a better chance of
precipitation next weekend with subtle theta-e advection and enough
lifting from the upstream shortwave troughs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Strong high pressure will persist over the region today and well
into tomorrow, which will provide VFR flight categories through the
forecast. Clear skies with the exception of some light cirrus near
Bowling Green this afternoon, as well as light winds below 5 knots.
Winds will generally be variable and become calm during the night.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP/BHB
LONG TERM...ALL
AVIATION...CJP/BHB