090
FXUS63 KLMK 221550
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1050 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Remaining unseasonably cold with gusty winds today, gusts of 20 to
   25 mph and wind chill values in the mid/upper 30s

*  Some scattered rain showers later this afternoon towards the Blue
   Grass as well as along and east of I-75.

*  Dry and warmer for this coming weekend.

*  Increasing rain chances Monday and again for the middle of next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

So far this morning, there has been a mix of clouds and sun across
the region, with more sunshine over central and southern KY. The
extra clearing is likely associated with an area of subsidence in
the wake of the mid-level vort max which passed through the region
early this morning. At this hour, cloud cover is starting to fill in
over southern IN and north central KY, with an expansive area of
stratus moving into the region from the north. Clouds will fill in
later this morning across southern portions of the forecast area,
with broken or overcast skies expected to continue through the rest
of the day. A band of showers moving across central IN this morning
will approach northeastern portions of the forecast area later
today, though limited moisture depth and weakening forcing should
keep precipitation rates and amounts very light. Patchy drizzle will
also be possible later this afternoon and evening, especially across
portions of the Bluegrass. Chilly temperatures will continue this
afternoon, with highs only expected to reach the mid 40s in most
locations. Continued breezy NW winds will make things feel even
cooler.

The forecast is on track at this time. Updated products have been
sent in the past few minutes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Other than a few isolated reports of light snow, most of the snow
has changed over to either light rain or drizzle during the early
morning hours. Even with temperatures in the low/mid 30s, moisture
column has become quite shallow and mainly sfc base below the DGZ.
Based on that, decided to end the Winter Weather Advisory.

A weak shortwave is pushing through helping helping to produce some
light rain, drizzle with Lexington still reporting light snow. Most
of the precipitation should have pushed out by daybreak as small
area of dry air works into the area. Temperatures across the
northern Blue Grass and far eastern southern IN may reach or drop
just below freezing by the start of the day. This could cause a few
isolated icy slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses.

Upper low will be located over the Mid-Atlantic during the day with
the region under a northerly flow aloft. Low-level moisture will
remain trapped under a temperatures inversion at around 850mb
keeping us under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. This will keep
temperatures a little cooler than guidance, went with highs in the
low/mid 40s due to the clouds. A weak vort lobe rotating around the
upper low will drop southward into the area this afternoon. This may
be enough lift to spark a few light rain or sprinkles, mostly over
the Blue Grass and along the I-75 corridor. Winds are still expected
to be gusty this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph but not as gusty
as it was on Thursday.

Clouds are expected to remain as we go into the evening and
overnight. But drier air is will try to work in from the southwest
towards tomorrow morning, with some partial clearing west of I-65 in
the pre-dawn hours. Slight ridging aloft will start to work in
overnight increasing heights over the area, lows will be a little
warmer in mid/upper 30s with a few isolated 40s thanks to the
persistent cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Saturday - Sunday:
Exiting upper level low pressure system will be replaced by a more
stable upper level ridge of high pressure. Warm air advection at the
surface will bring high temperatures back into the 50s/60s, which is
closer to normal for late November.  Model soundings for Saturday
show some lingering low level moisture with an inversion set up in
the low to mid levels, which will likely bring mostly cloudy skies
to start before the sunshine starts to return on Sunday with more of
a dry atmosphere in place through the air column across the region.

Monday-Thursday: An active progressive weather pattern for next week
will bring chances for unsettled weather for the region. The warmest
day of the week will be Monday with highs along a warm front in the
mid to upper 60s (around 10 degrees above normal), but a long
sweeping cold front will bring showers and potentially a few rumbles
of thunder.  As of right now, model sounding profiles have very
limited instability with a bit of lower level instability, but all
convective potential is below the freezing level.  Chances for
thunderstorms is less than a 15 percent for Monday.  A brief break
in the action is likely in store for Tuesday with a return to high
pressure and cooler conditions with highs in the mid to upper 40s
(about a 10 to 15 degree drop from Monday), followed by another
frontal boundary that will bring more unsettled weather chances for
Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.  While still several days away, the
initial forecast is for limited instability and potentially moderate
at times steady rain.

Rain 25th-75th percentiles for Monday across the area are between
0.10 and 0.50 of an inch accumulations, while perhaps the better
shot for rainfall (but more uncertain in terms of amounts) is
Wednesday into Thursday ranging from a 25th percentile amount of
0.10" to a 75th percentile of over 2 inches of total rain
accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

We may start the period with a TAF site at VFR but it is a very
challenging forecast. Most through the day will be dealing with
gusty WNW winds up to 20-25kts and mainly MVFR cigs through the day.
There is a slight chance of some lingering showers later today for
RGA/LEX but confidence is not very high. Should remain MVFR through
the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...BTN