871
FXUS63 KLMK 251054
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
654 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue today and
  Wednesday.

* Isolated to scattered shower chance arrives Wednesday night into
  Thursday. A few storms may be possible, but confidence in severe
  weather occurring is low.

* Temperatures gradually warm up late week and into the weekend,
  with highs approaching 90F by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Sfc high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast for today,
with another dry and pleasant day for late-August. Early morning
temps in the 50s and 60s will gradually warm up to the low to mid-
80s by this afternoon. Sfc dewpoints will still feel comfortable
with only the upper 50s and low 60s expected.

Dry weather continues tomorrow, though with the sfc high beginning
to shift more to the east. This will translate to slightly warmer
temps tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s. We`ll also begin to see
a slight increase in moisture advection into the region, with
dewpoints in the mid-60s tomorrow afternoon. Conditions will still
be quite nice for late-August. An isolated rain chance will return
across Southern IN Wednesday evening, but more details on that are
in the Long Term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

===== Rain Chances Return Thursday =====

Upper ridging will continue to be quite strong across the western
US, with downstream troughing set up across the eastern half of the
country. A cold front will dive southward through the Ohio Valley
late Wednesday and into Thursday, which will bring our next chance
for showers and maybe a few storms. Model soundings do not show very
favorable parameters for storms, with weak shear and meager lapse
rates keeping severe potential low. Coverage also looks to be rather
isolated, so not expecting this precip chance to be widespread, and
could end up with most of the area remaining mostly dry. PoPs are
limited to 20-30% chance Wednesday night and Thursday.

Additionally, we`ll see increasing moisture for Thursday ahead of
the frontal boundary, with dewpoints approaching 70F. Temps are
forecast to top out in the upper 80s and near 90 on Thursday, so
it`ll feel a little more muggy than in previous days. Drier weather
returns for Friday behind the frontal passage, with lower dewpoints
again too.


===== Dry Weather Expected Over the Weekend =====

The upper trough will weaken by the weekend, leading to the upper
pattern to flatten out some, though we`ll see increasing heights
across our area. Sfc high pressure will take control again, leading
to a dry weekend, and warming temps that could be the precursor to
much warmer temps into early next week. Temps Saturday and Sunday
could peak in the low 90s. By early next week, stronger ridging will
set up over the eastern half of the US, leading to continued dry
conditions, and perhaps a warm up in daily temps. NBM probs for
temps greater than 90F exceed 75-80% for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Some patchy fog this morning mainly in the valleys, but could
briefly impact a terminal with reduced vis. Not confident enough to
include any mention in TAFs. Otherwise, VFR and very pleasant flight
conditions expected today, with light winds variable at times but
generally an easterly flow. VFR will continue for tonight as well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP