423
FXUS63 KLMK 140709
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
309 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and humid with isolated showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening.

* Hot and humid this weekend and early next week with highs in the
  low to mid 90s. Triple digit heat index values possible in the
  afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Skies are partly cloudy to mostly clear this morning with a mix of
FEW-SCT low clouds and thin cirrus. Winds are very light to calm,
and patchy fog development is well underway in areas with a bit more
clearing. Dense fog will be possible through mid-morning,
particularly in fog-prone locations such as low-lying areas.

A weak cold front is draped southwest through the Lower Ohio Valley
early this morning. This boundary is forecast to continue sinking
south through central Kentucky today. In the upper levels, weak
shortwave troughing is noted extending over the region. However,
weak height rises are forecast during the short term as upper level
ridging builds in from the southwest.

This morning will likely stay dry given weak forcing and stable low
levels. Drier mid-level air will continue to spill in from the
north, and PW values dip to around 1.5 inches for today. As the
surface warms and destabilizes late morning into the afternoon, weak
low-level moisture convergence could be sufficient for a few
isolated showers and storms in central KY. Spotty activity could
linger through the evening hours, with mainly dry conditions after
sunset.

Overall, the day looks mainly dry for most. Partly sunny skies will
allow temps to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon.
Skies will become mostly clear late tonight, with lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Areas of fog will be possible early Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Mid and upper level ridging is forecast to amplify considerably over
the Plains and MS Valley this weekend. A stretch of hot, dry weather
continues to look likely Friday through early next week. Friday
should be the "coolest" day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Low to mid 90s will be common over the weekend and early next week.
Afternoon heat index values will flirt with triple digits each day.

The upper level ridge is forecast to shift westward by the middle of
next week, likely allowing an upper level trough and associated sfc
cold front to spill south from the Great Lakes. Wednesday and beyond
looks like the most likely time to see some relief from the heat and
increasing rain/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

A weak cold front is washing out across the region this morning,
with weak convergent flow and a moist airmass in place. Still have
some SCT VFR cumulus out there, but the main aviation concern this
morning will be fog and low stratus. Brief IFR looks possible at
most terminals, with the exception of SDF, between 08-12Z. LIFR
vsbys/ceilings are also possible, particularly at LEX and HNB. Fog
will gradually erode with improving vsbys after 13Z.

SCT diurnal cumulus is expected this afternoon, along with some
isolated showers and storms. Coverage is expected to be even lower
than yesterday, so will hold off on any precip mention in the TAF.
Winds will remain light through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW