532
FXUS63 KLMK 230538
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1238 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry weather through the weekend into early next week.
   Temperatures will continue to rise into early next week.

*  Next chance of rain arrives by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley is bringing quiet
weather to the region this weekend and allowing river waters down
steadily on area rivers. A weak mid-level disturbance crossing the
region today is bringing just a few higher-level clouds across...and
those are lingering a bit longer than model guidance is indicating.
It`s a very thin layer, as per latest GOES colorized satellite
imagery showing the snow on the ground over PAH`s area under
that thin layer! Farther upstream is clear and expect those
conditions here by the late overnight hours.

Sunday, the surface high will be centered a little farther east, so
we`ll see a more southerly flow begin, and consequently warmer
temperatures. Highs should be well into the 40s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

The weather pattern through first half of the week will feature a
split flow across the CONUS with the Polar Jet positioned along the
US/Canadian border and the subtropical jet stretching from the Baja,
along the US/Mexico border towards the Panhandle of FL. While a few
shortwave trough embedded in the northern stream will work across
the Great Lakes Sunday Night/Monday and again late Monday Night into
Tuesday morning. These systems will be moisture starved as the
southern stream will keep the moisture to our south along the Gulf
Coast. Other than a few sprinkles early Tuesday morning across
southern IN, the forecast through Wednesday is dry. The main weather
story through the first half of the forecast will be warming
temperatures. Highs Monday will be close to seasonable normals as
they warm into the low/mid 50s after starting in the mid/upper 20s.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be 10 degrees above
normal with highs in the low 60s and even mid 60s across the
southern half of our CWA by Wednesday. Lows will also be warmer in
the mid/upper 30s.

Wednesday through the end of the week the pattern becomes more
amplified as strong ridging develops across the western CONUS and a
deepening trough across east. Sfc low will develop over the Dakotas
and make its way across the Great Lakes Wednesday night into
Thursday. As it does it will drag a sfc cold front across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will spread
showers across the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
While the forecast grids show a slight chance of thunder across the
Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night, model soundings from both
the EURO and GFS show little to no instability but steep mid-level
lapse rates.

Scattered showers could linger on Thursday depending on how quickly
the front moves through. After being in the 60s on Wednesday, cooler
air behind the front will drop temperatures into the low 50s to
upper 40s. Sfc high pressure returns over the region on Friday with
ridging aloft. It will be dry with temperatures back into the
low/mid 50s. Another disturbance looks to cross the Great Lakes at
the end of the forecast, but similar to many of the others, it lacks
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Quiet and VFR weather is in store through this TAF cycle as high
pressure controls our region with light southerly winds, or calm
winds, and clear, or high level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...MK