214
FXUS63 KLMK 201050
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Showers and storms expected late tonight into Monday morning,
   severe threat is very low.

*  Dry and seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday before rain chances
   return later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Cold front over the region will begin to lift back north as a warm
front today. A low pressure system will eject from the southern
Plains across the mid-MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. This will
send a cold front through the OH Valley tonight.

Increased southerly flow into the region will allow temperatures and
dew points to increase. High temperatures today will be in the low-
mid 80s. The western portion of the region will be brushed by the
eastern edge of the LLJ, and coupled with broken clouds, will help
to increase gusty winds in the afternoon along I-65 and west.
Pressure gradients will tighten as the system approaches which will
lead to breezy sustained winds.

As the cold front approaches tonight, showers and storms are
expected to move through. Best forcing will remain to the north of
the region, as the trough moves over the Midwest. There is plenty of
shear, however, instability will be at a diurnal minimum. Therefore,
not expecting severe storms. Could see a heavy downpour and
gusty winds with stronger storms. Showers and storms will exit
to the east Monday afternoon. As the cold front passes through,
temperatures will return to near normal in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Monday night - Wednesday...

Weak high pressure quickly builds in Monday night behind the
departed cold front. An area of high pressure builds across the Ohio
Valley through midweek. During this time, we will see relatively
weak, zonal flow aloft. A series of upper level shortwave troughs
will move across the northern CONUS. One subtle shortwave ripple
does stream over Mexico and Texas before reaching the Lower MS
Valley on Wednesday. This is a feature that could contribute to
unsettled weather late Wednesday and beyond.

However, Monday night through Wednesday looks largely dry. Morning
lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. For Tuesday, expect
skies to range from partly to mostly sunny with highs in the low to
mid 70s. Wednesday looks warmer due to an increase in low-level
thicknesses, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.


Wednesday night - Saturday...

Increasingly perturbed upper level flow takes shape across the CONUS
Wednesday night into the weekend. Multiples waves are forecast to
develop from the Plains northeast across the Midwest and Great
Lakes, placing the Ohio Valley in an unsettled SW flow regime. A
warm front appears likely to lift north across the region Wednesday
night into Thursday as the upper level shortwave trough over the
Lower MS Valley lifts northeast over the Lower OH Valley. Showers
and thunderstorms continue to look fairly likely during this time
frame.

Additional mid/upper level shortwave disturbances are forecast to
lift northeast across the region Thursday night and Friday, before a
cold front finally sinks through the area next weekend. Prior to the
passage of the cold front, these waves could interact with a fairly
warm, humid airmass to produce occasional showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal mid to late week, with lows
commonly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s will be common through Friday, with low/mid 70s more likely next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Scattered low CIGs around 1-2kft drift over southern Indiana and
central Kentucky where the best rain fell yesterday. These clouds
will stick around through the morning hours before lifting and
pushing north. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Winds are
currently out of the ESE and will veer to the SSE by this afternoon
and evening. An approaching cold front will bring showers and storms
tonight after 5Z. Ahead of the showers, a LLJ will bring LLWS to the
eastern terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW