945
FXUS63 KLMK 030642
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
242 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms return
  today, continuing into early-to-mid next week.

* Below normal temperatures continue today through the first half of
  the week, with temperatures warming to around normal levels by
  late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The inverted trough is currently located over central Tennessee and
eastern Kentucky. This feature will steadily shift northwestward
through the day. As a result, a ridge of moisture is moving into
southern Kentucky and will slowly move north and west with the
trough. Low stratus is also beginning to spread northwest from
eastern Kentucky. Over the northern portions of the region, skies
will remain scattered-broken, and in the southern areas skies will
be broken-overcast. After sunrise, this stratus will begin to lift
and thin.

As moisture increases over the region, PWATs increase to about 1.75
inches. By mid to late morning, scattered showers and few storms
will move in from the south over southern Kentucky. These showers
and storms will continue to move north, bringing isolated showers
and storms to northern Kentucky. Given increased dew points in the
mid-to-upper 60s, will likely see MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, weak mid
level troughing moving through the lower Ohio Valley, weak CVA, and
deep-layer shear around 20kts. This could allow a few stronger (non-
severe) storms to develop. Expecting to see high temperatures in the
upper 70s and low 80s.

In the evening, showers and storms will begin to dissipate. Though
isolated showers may remain through the overnight as the inverted
trough continues to push northwest and moisture remains over the
region. Stratus may again build over the region, which will prevent
efficient cooling. Low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
than the previous night, in the mid-to-upper 60s and urban areas
right around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Long term will begin with an upper high over Canada and a surface
high over the northeastern US. Both of these features will steadily
shift off to the northeast through the first half of the week. This
will keep mild temperatures and daily scattered showers and storms
over the region. Later in the week, upper ridging over the
southwestern CONUS will attempt to spread northeastward over the
Mississippi Valley. This will help to increase temperatures back to
normal and into the low 90s by the weekend.

Monday through mid-week, weak upper troughing and the aforementioned
inverted surface trough will remain over the region. These features,
along with the increased moisture, will keep showers and storms in
the region. CAPE is expected to be around 1000 J/kg and deep-layer
shear will be weak, therefore, not expecting severe storms. Some
storms may become strong leading to some gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. Chances for showers and storms decrease in the latter half
of the week as troughing exits the lower Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

An inverted trough is currently located over central TN and eastern
KY. This feature will move northwestward through the day. This
feature is bringing MVFR, and possibly brief IFR stratus through the
early morning hours. After sunrise, these CIGs will lift. Scattered
showers and storms will move north through the day, becoming
isolated over HNB and SDF. In the evening, showers and storms will
dissipate. As the trough passes, winds will shift from northeasterly
to more easterly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW