518
FXUS63 KLMK 020501
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
101 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mainly dry late this afternoon and evening, with showers and
  storms exiting into eastern Kentucky and Tennessee.

* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

* Mostly sunny Independence Day, with afternoon highs in the low
  90s.

* Turning hot and humid again this weekend, with at least small rain
  and thunderstorm chances returning on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A sfc cold front has pushed southeast through southern IN and a
significant portion of central KY this afternoon. A band of
scattered showers along the front is pushing east through the
Bluegrass and south-central KY. Lightning activity has been very
limited up to this point. Morning cloud cover definitely suppressed
sfc warming and destabilization. PW values of 2+ inches are still
noted in the eastern and southeastern forecast area along the
frontal boundary. Any heavier shower/storm this afternoon will
produce brief heavy rainfall and perhaps locally gusty winds. Severe
weather is unlikely.

Tonight, the mid/upper level shortwave trough axis swings east of
the region. At the surface, NW winds will diminish with high
pressure nosing into the region from the west. Northerly low-level
flow will finally have a chance to advect somewhat drier air into
the region. Expect mostly clear skies, light winds, and patchy fog
early Wednesday. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s in most areas.

Wednesday into Wednesday night, upper level troughing will develop
southeast over Ontario and Quebec. Upstream, upper level ridging
will advance eastward over the Plains. Relatively dry air and sfc
high pressure lingering over the Mid-South will keep us dry during
this time. We`ll see quite a bit of sunshine tomorrow, with only SCT
afternoon cumulus. Afternoon highs will reach the mid/upper 80s.
Mainly clear Wednesday night, with another round of fog and lows in
the low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Thursday - Thursday Night...

High pressure will continue to build eastward over the region,
bringing fair weather. The upper level ridge is forecast to amplify
as it shifts from the Plains toward the Mississippi River Valley.
Rising heights will allow temperatures to trend back up a bit, with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Lows heading into the 4th look to
be in the 65-70 degree range.

Independence Day...

Upper ridging continues to amplify eastward over the Midwest/MS
Valley/OH Valley. With high pressure lingering at the sfc, expect
mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs in the low 90s.

This Weekend into Early Next Week...

The heat continues to build this weekend along with the mid/upper
level ridge. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s will be
attainable. Low-level high pressure shifts east of the area this
weekend, allowing the redevelopment of southerly low-level flow and
weak moisture advection. Saturday continues to look mainly dry. A
low pressure system on the northwest periphery of the upper ridge
may reach the Upper Midwest by Saturday, but we`ll stay dry.
Afternoon heat index values may briefly peak in the 95-100 degree
range.

Sunday into Monday, weak low pressure appears likely to lift
northeast across the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front likely
remaining off to our northwest. However, hot/humid conditions and SW
low-level flow will support at least low-end chances for isolated to
scattered convection. Afternoon heat indices could at least briefly
approach triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected during most of the period, excluding
some possible light fog in the morning at LEX and RGA. Surface high
pressure will keep winds on the lighter side through the period. In
the late morning, some SCT Cu around 4kft may develop over the
BWG/HNB/SDF. After sunset, winds will become calm to light and skies
remain clear overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW