556
FXUS63 KLMK 310830
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
330 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Rain showers will diminish through the morning hours. Drier
   weather expected for most, but a few isolated thunderstorms are
   possible across south-central Kentucky late this afternoon and
   into the early evening. Small hail and gusty winds could be
   possible.

*  Dry and unseasonably mild conditions for this weekend into early
   next week. Next chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

===== Morning Rain Dwindles =====

Early morning rain showers across the area are gradually becoming
more scattered as the low-level moisture transport axis shifts
eastward. We`ll see light to moderate rain through the morning hours
for locations east of I-65, but overall precip coverage and
intensity will continue to dwindle.

For the late-morning hours, we could begin to see some partial
clearing of the cloud deck as a dry slot works into central
Kentucky. Any increase in sunshine will support steepening lapse
rates and mixing down some higher momentum aloft from the lingering
LLJ. This will allow for sfc winds to remain breezy through at least
the early afternoon hours. Southwest wind gusts between 20-25 mph
are forecast, but shouldn`t rule out any 25-30+ mph gusts in our
east. HREF gives rather favorable probs for this, with 70-80%
chances of exceeding 30 mph, but this is due to the hi-res bias that
can be picked out when looking at the individual members.
Regardless, the best chance for seeing any gusts over 30 mph will be
east of I-65 where the higher winds within the LLJ will be.


===== Late Afternoon Storm Chances =====

The afternoon will be mostly dry for the entire area, with at least
partly sunny skycover. With southwesterly flow still in place, a WAA
regime will help us likely reach the low 60s this afternoon.
However, as the mid-level shortwave axis pivots across the region,
moisture wrapping around the low pressure system will coincide with
a 500mb vort max, which will provide a narrow window of forcing for
low-topped convection between 21-00z today. Coverage will be
isolated, and most likely for the south-central Kentucky area. The
SPC General Thunder risk is placed well.

HREF neighborhood probability of CAPE over 250 J/kg is 40-50% to the
south of the Parkways. Model soundings indicate steep low level
lapse rates, but also low freezing heights, which could pose a risk
for graupel (small hail) and gusty winds with any stronger cores
that can develop. Confidence remains somewhat limited for these
hazards though, as model soundings show a potential sharp low level
inversion setting up after 21z across our south that could help keep
any potential winds from reaching the sfc. Regardless, will keep
PoPs limited to 25% due to the expected isolated coverage.

Precip chances diminish after 00z this evening, though low clouds
will fill back in for the overnight. Temps will be in the upper 30s
to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Saturday through Monday Night...

Not much change in the latest guidance for this portion of the
forecast period.  Upper level flow across the CONUS is expected to
deamplify and become zonal.  This will result in a dry period of
weather from Saturday through Monday night.

Highs Saturday will be the coolest of the period with readings in
the upper 40s to the lower 50s with overnight lows dipping into the
mid-upper 30s across the north and into the lower 40s across the
south.  Temperatures will moderate significantly on Sunday with
afternoon highs in the the lower-middle 60s with overnight lows
dipping into the low-mid 40s.  Mild conditions are expected to
continue on Monday with highs in the in the lower-middle 60s across
southern IN and northern KY.  Across southern KY, highs will be in
the upper 60s to near 70 along the KY/TN border.

A weak mid-level perturbation looks to pass through late Monday
night.  This will likely bring an increase in cloud cover and
perhaps a few isolated showers, though the best chances of that look
to be across portions of IN/OH.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Quiet weather is expected to continue into Tuesday with slightly
cooler temps.  Highs will range form the mid-upper 50s across
southern IN and northern KY to the lower-mid 60s across southern KY.
The upper level pattern looks to amplify a bit as we get into the
Wed/Thu time frame as a mid-level trough axis and surface cold front
approach the region.  For now, will keep chance PoPs going in the
forecast for Wed/Thu.  Highs on Wed/Thu in advance of the front will
be quite mild with readings in the lower-mid 60s in the north with
upper 60s to near 70 in the south.  Much cooler weather is expected
by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Widespread light to moderate rainfall has resulted in MVFR and IFR
cigs and vis this morning, which will continue over the next several
hours. A LLJ will also spread northward this morning, so expect a
short period of LLWS to impact the terminals before dawn. Still
expect to see precip coverage to let up during the late morning
hours, which could help improve cigs back to VFR for the afternoon
hours. Scattered showers (and perhaps a storm with graupel/small
hail) could redevelop in the afternoon. Kept mention of this by
highlighting PROB30 groups for the late forecast period threat.
Winds will remain gusty through the period, and from the southeast
early this morning but turning to a more southwesterly flow later.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for KYZ023-
     024-026>028-053-061>065-070>074-076.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CJP