836
FXUS63 KLMK 031755
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
155 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms return
  today, continuing into early-to-mid next week.

* Below normal temperatures continue today through the first half of
  the week, with temperatures warming to around normal levels by
  late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Across most of central KY and southern IN, it has been another dry
and cool morning, with temperatures warming into the low-to-mid 70s
as of 14Z. However, across southeastern and portions of south
central KY, a surge of low-level moisture has supported widespread
low stratus and scattered light to moderate rain showers. The most
notable cluster of showers at this time extends from southern
Metcalfe County over to northern Clinton County. Radar estimates
that this cluster of fairly slow moving showers has already produced
between 1/4 and 3/4" of rain across portions of Monroe and
Cumberland County, with lighter amounts surrounding.

As we head through the late morning and early afternoon hours, this
moisture axis should spread northwestward along the leading edge of
an inverted pressure trough. There should be enough CAPE available
by early-to-mid afternoon to get a few thunderstorms as well as
scattered showers, with the greatest coverage of precipitation
remaining south of I-64.

The current forecast remains on track, with subtle changes made to
near term temps, dewpoints, sky cover, and PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The inverted trough is currently located over central Tennessee and
eastern Kentucky. This feature will steadily shift northwestward
through the day. As a result, a ridge of moisture is moving into
southern Kentucky and will slowly move north and west with the
trough. Low stratus is also beginning to spread northwest from
eastern Kentucky. Over the northern portions of the region, skies
will remain scattered-broken, and in the southern areas skies will
be broken-overcast. After sunrise, this stratus will begin to lift
and thin.

As moisture increases over the region, PWATs increase to about 1.75
inches. By mid to late morning, scattered showers and few storms
will move in from the south over southern Kentucky. These showers
and storms will continue to move north, bringing isolated showers
and storms to northern Kentucky. Given increased dew points in the
mid-to-upper 60s, will likely see MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, weak mid
level troughing moving through the lower Ohio Valley, weak CVA, and
deep-layer shear around 20kts. This could allow a few stronger (non-
severe) storms to develop. Expecting to see high temperatures in the
upper 70s and low 80s.

In the evening, showers and storms will begin to dissipate. Though
isolated showers may remain through the overnight as the inverted
trough continues to push northwest and moisture remains over the
region. Stratus may again build over the region, which will prevent
efficient cooling. Low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
than the previous night, in the mid-to-upper 60s and urban areas
right around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Long term will begin with an upper high over Canada and a surface
high over the northeastern US. Both of these features will steadily
shift off to the northeast through the first half of the week. This
will keep mild temperatures and daily scattered showers and storms
over the region. Later in the week, upper ridging over the
southwestern CONUS will attempt to spread northeastward over the
Mississippi Valley. This will help to increase temperatures back to
normal and into the low 90s by the weekend.

Monday through mid-week, weak upper troughing and the aforementioned
inverted surface trough will remain over the region. These features,
along with the increased moisture, will keep showers and storms in
the region. CAPE is expected to be around 1000 J/kg and deep-layer
shear will be weak, therefore, not expecting severe storms. Some
storms may become strong leading to some gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. Chances for showers and storms decrease in the latter half
of the week as troughing exits the lower Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

An area of low pressure has developed on the west side of the
Appalachians, with low-level moisture spilling northward into the
area this morning. MVFR ceilings have developed at BWG and RGA,
though it is expected that there should be just enough mixing to
lift these to low VFR levels later this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms over southern KY will try to lift northward this
afternoon, with the best chance to see TSRA at BWG. Winds are
expected to remain out of the east at 5-10 kt this afternoon, with a
few 15+ kt gusts possible at SDF and LEX.

Tonight, forecast confidence is fairly low as model guidance varies
on where additional showers and low ceilings will try to develop.
The best chance for IFR/MVFR ceilings will spread toward SDF and HNB
Monday morning, though any site could see lower ceilings. Given low
confidence in where SHRA will set up Monday morning, we`ll keep a
dry forecast going for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CSG