149
FXUS63 KLMK 281747
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
147 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory remains in effect for Hancock County to Warren/Allen
  counties and west today. Temperatures in the low 90s combined with
  very high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values
  of 105 - 110.

* Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible this
  morning into early afternoon, mainly east of I-65.

* Dry and slightly cooler through mid to late week. Rain and
  thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Conditions are now dry in the wake of last evening`s deep convection
that moved SSE over northern and eastern portions of the forecast
area. Current temperatures range from the upper 60s/lower 70s in the
Bluegrass Region to the upper 70s/near 80 along and west of the I-65
corridor. Clouds have thinned considerably after last night`s
convection as well, so temperatures appear set to soar into the 80s
this morning. The exception may be across the northeastern CWA,
where more persistent lower clouds may delay sfc warming in SE
Indiana and the Bluegrass.

In fact, scattered showers and a few storms will be possible to
start the day across the northeastern portions of the area. Multiple
CAMs continue to hint at scattered light to moderate showers
developing southeast across southern IN and portions of north-
central KY and the Bluegrass. The core of a 35 kt westerly LLJ will
overspread this area this morning ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Low pressure is forecast to move over Upstate NY today, with the
trailing cold front pushing southeast through the forecast area
later this morning through the afternoon hours. We don`t really see
a notable push of cooler air during the daytime, so temperatures are
still likely to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in many
places. A few spots in southern KY could briefly peak in the mid
90s. Unfortunately, sfc dewpoints are forecast to linger in the mid
70s to near 80, and the oppressive humidity will contribute to
afternoon heat index values of 105-110 in west-central KY and south-
central KY. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM CDT
this evening, with the only change being the addition of Hancock
County KY.

The sagging cold front may help spark isolated convection near and
east of the I-75 corridor this afternoon, but most will stay dry.
The sfc cold front pushes well southeast of the area by tonight as
high pressure settles over the Great Lakes. Tonight, expect quiet
weather with diminishing northerly winds and lows in the low to mid
60s. We`ll continue to see slightly cooler air filter into the
region from the north into Wednesday, when highs are forecast to
reach the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Wednesday night into Friday continues to look mainly dry with weak
high pressure settling over the Ohio Valley. We will await the
arrival of a slow-moving shortwave trough riding over the western
CONUS ridge. Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be common Thursday
and Friday, with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Medium range guidance is fairly consistent in bringing the upper
level trough in from the northwest by Friday night. We then see an
amplification of the upper level flow, with the eastern CONUS trough
closing off and meandering nearby through the weekend. Look for
increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms over the weekend.
Increased cloud cover and precipitation should keep daytime highs
solidly below normal for the beginning of August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few showers
will move near RGA over the next couple hours, though coverage was
not widespread enough to include as a prevailing condition of SHRA.
Gusty conditions from the NNW this afternoon will become calm after
sunset this evening, lasting through midday Wednesday. Some patchy
fog could develop tonight near RGA and BWG, though confidence was
too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>028-061>063-070>076-081.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ083-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BEN