970
FXUS63 KLMK 231719
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1219 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected today,
   continuing through the first half of this week.

*  The next chance of rain arrives Wednesday afternoon into
   Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Temperatures are already starting to rise quickly from another cold
start this morning, with latest readings in the upper 20s and lower
30s. Sunny skies are present across the region this morning, with
high pressure over the TN valley promoting light southerly flow.
Ample sunshine and light southerly winds will help temperatures to
surge into the mid-to-upper 40s this afternoon, with a few 50 degree
readings possible, especially across south central KY. With this
update, the main changes were to tweak highs upward for this
afternoon and to make minor adjustments to the sky grids to handle
approaching thin cirrus. Updated products will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 932 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

High pressure over the Tennessee Valley continues to be the dominant
feature in the atmosphere and will bring mostly clear skies with no
chances for precipitation.  As the high center shifts eastward into
the Carolinas, light southerly winds return and bring some warm air
advection with highs today approaching the mid to upper 40s (still a
little on the cool side compared to normal).  Lows tonight under
clear skies are expected to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s,
which is also slightly cooler than average.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Monday through Tuesday Night...

A split flow pattern aloft will be seen at the beginning of the
forecast period.  The polar jet will retreat to the north along the
US/Canadian border with the southern branch extending from the Baja
of Mexico along the southern Gulf coast.  We`ll see a mid-level
trough axis swing through the region on Tuesday.  Moisture with the
system is rather scant and we`ll see mostly an increase in cloud
cover across the region.  A few sprinkles can`t be ruled out across
southern IN and OH.  The flow will then flatten back out by Tuesday
night.

Temperatures through this period will be milder than what we`ve seen
of late.  Highs Monday will be in the low-mid 50s across southern IN
and northern KY with mid-upper 50s across southern KY.  Lows Monday
night will dip back into the mid 30s.  Highs will continue to
moderate on Tuesday with readings warming into the upper 50s across
the north with lower 60s across southern KY.  Lows Tuesday night
will dip back in the upper 30s.

Wednesday through Saturday...

As we move into the mid-week period, the upper level flow looks to
amplify with a large ridge building across the western CONUS.  A mid-
level trough axis will push into the region late Wednesday and early
Thursday dragging a surface cold front through the region.  Showers
look to accompany the front as it moves through the region.   Model
soundings show a little bit of elevated instability and we may able
to get a few rumbles of thunder down across southern KY with those
larger lapse rates aloft.  Behind this front, cooler weather will
move back into the region.

Highs Wednesday will be in the low-mid 60s across southern IN and
the northern half of Kentucky.  A run at the upper 60s to around 70
looks likely across the southern half of KY Wednesday afternoon
ahead of the front.  Temps Wednesday night will drop back into the
upper 30s/lower 40s.  Highs Thursday will be cool with upper 40s to
around 50 in most locations.  Lows Thursday night will drop back
into the lower 30s.  Highs Friday and Saturday will moderate a bit
with readings warming back into the 50s.  Some lower 60s will be
possible across southern KY Saturday afternoon.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Heading into early March the overall pattern looks to support an up
and down temperature pattern with warm ups ahead of systems and cool
downs following.  The pattern looks to become active again with a
number of signal passages showing up.  The first signal looks to
cross the region around 3/3, with a much stronger signal passing in
the 3/5-6 period.  This feature cool bring a bout of storms and
heavy rainfall to the region.  The pattern then may become
conductive for one more round of rainy and wintry weather with a
signal passage around 3/8-3/11 period.  After that, the longer range
guidance suggests a substantial pattern flip going to a milder and
more stormy pattern by mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions and light S/SW winds are expected this afternoon,
with FEW-SCT high clouds passing across the region. High pressure
over the Tennessee valley will gradually slide to the east tonight
into tomorrow morning, with an area of low pressure moving across
the Great Lakes tomorrow. This will bring stronger SW winds during
the day on Monday, with sustained winds generally between 8-14 kt.
More mid-to-high level clouds are also expected on Monday, but VFR
conditions should continue across all terminals.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG