902
FXUS63 KLMK 050521
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
121 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm Sunday evening along
   and east of Interstate 75.

*  Dry weather and below normal temperatures most of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

The forecast is on track tonight, with a quiet stretch of weather in
store. Noting some mid clouds trying to sink SE across central
Indiana at this hour, however the HREF seems to have a pretty good
handle on this cloud cover mostly dissipating as it gets into our
northern CWA later tonight. As a result, no changes planned at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Weak sfc trof extends from NW Ohio back into central Indiana and
Illinois, but earlier convection dissipated near I-70 in Indiana and
Illinois. Expect this feature to slowly make its way SE through the
Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight, giving way to high pressure
building from the Great Lakes and shortwave upper ridging. Sensible
wx impacts will be limited mainly to a wind shift as the forcing
remains to our north and PWAT values just over 1 inch are not
favorable for convection this time of year. While it won`t be windy
at the sfc, the weak advection overnight will keep us just mixy
enough that any fog formation will be short-lived and not very
dense. Temps trend a degree or two warmer for tonight`s min, but
very close to persistence for Saturday highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Warm and dry weather will continue Sunday with shortwave upper
ridging ahead of a sfc cold front. The only rain chance comes Sunday
evening when an upper trof moving into the Great Lakes pushes the
cold front SE into the Ohio Valley. However, forcing and deep
moisture don`t really coincide, so rain chances will be limited to
around 20 percent, and only along/east of Interstate 75.

Monday the upper pattern transitions to a more amplified NW flow
pattern. Sfc high pressure building from the Upper Midwest will
being in a Canadian air mass, knocking temps to below normal values.
Most locations will see highs just either side of 70 for most of the
week, finally climbing back to near normal at the end of the week.
Lows each night will be in the 40s for most, but a few of the
traditional cold spots could dip into the 30s, especially Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Winds overnight look to be near calm or have a slight northeast
component.  Winds will shift to the southeast later by mid-late
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BJS
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM....RAS
AVIATION.....MJ