418
FXUS63 KLMK 211718
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon. A few storms may
  become strong. Main threats will be gusty winds and small hail.

* Milder conditions are forecasted for Sunday through Tuesday
  morning. Low temperatures dip into the low 60s.

* Chances for showers and storms increase mid next week as a warm
  front pushes north into the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This morning, areas of dense fog are beginning to dissipate, with
the greatest coverage of fog lingering along and south of the
Kentucky Parkways. As daytime heating continues, fog will continue
to mix out over the next hour to 90 minutes. Along the KY/TN border,
scattered rain showers are lingering this morning, with most of the
showers remaining on the TN side. Have increased PoPs to slight
chance coverage (20-30%) over the next few hours in Monroe,
Cumberland, and Clinton County to account for the ongoing activity.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time. High pressure
sinking into the Ohio Valley should keep most areas outside of Lake
Cumberland dry today. Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid
80s for highs this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Clear skies and light winds this morning has allowed for dense
valley fog to develop. This is expected to expand through the
remainder of the overnight period. An SPS has been issued for fog
through 1230Z (830am ET).

Deep troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS as ridging
continues to build over the western CONUS. These features will keep
northwestern flow aloft over the lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
high pressure will keep conditions mostly dry for today. A surface
stationary front over Tennessee may help a few showers and storms to
develop near the Lake Cumberland region this afternoon.

Overnight tonight into Saturday, a shortwave trough will swing
through the region. This will bring decaying showers along the cold
front in the early morning hours Saturday over southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. The upper trough and cold front will push into
the eastern half of the region in the afternoon. With daytime
heating, this will allow enough instability and lift to develop
showers and a few storms. Weak shear may allow for a storm or two to
become strong, bringing a marginal threat for gusty winds and small
hail. Main threat area will be the Bluegrass and northeastern
portions of the CWA in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Behind the cold front, we will see drier and cooler weather. Lows
Sunday morning through Tuesday morning are forecasted to be in the
low 60s, which is about 6-9 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Expecting to see overall drier conditions, though a few
showers and storms will be possible as vorticity streams along
northwesterly flow aloft.

Moving into mid next week, a weak surface low pressure is expected
to develop over the central Plains and a warm front will lift north
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This will increase moisture and
lift over the region, bringing increased chances for showers and
storms. At the same time, upper ridging will broaden into the mid-
Mississippi Valley and increase temperatures back to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered to broken VFR clouds will continue through the afternoon,
dissipating around sunset. Northerly winds will switch to southwest
Saturday morning, then increase again from the west-northwest behind
a pre-frontal trough around midday. A low chance for
thunderstorms will exist mid to late Saturday afternoon,
primarily at LEX and perhaps RGA, but that (20-23z Saturday) is
after the current TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...JRB