246
FXUS63 KLMK 040648
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
248 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another warm and dry day. Rain chances increase after sunset west
  of I-65.

* Active weather expected to return Thursday through Saturday.

* Strong to severe storms possible in the Thursday through Saturday
  period, with Friday holding the greatest potential.

* Excessive rainfall is possible as a surface boundary stalls across
  the region. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall could occur late this week
  and into the weekend resulting in localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Quiet weather continues across the area early this morning as the
western fringes of surface and upper ridging hang on a bit longer.
Upstream, some weakened convection continues along a slowly
progressing frontal boundary stretching from eastern Canada down
through the southern Plains. This activity will slowly slide closer
to our western CWA through the day, but likely won`t include any
chances until around sunset or after.

We`ll see another warm day with max temps peaking in the 85 to 90
degree range once again. Do expect increasing upper sky cover,
especially across the western CWA, but should still get some pretty
good heating ahead of the increased coverage. In addition, we`ll get
a decent warm advection component on steady to occasionally gusty
SSW winds. Given the steady winds and increased sky cover into
tonight, overnight lows should stay fairly mild in the upper 60s and
low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Thursday - Saturday...

Generally zonal flow between southern CONUS ridging and broad low
amplitude troughing across the northern CONUS will be in place late
week into the weekend. At the surface, a cold frontal boundary
trailing from an eastern Canada system will slowly sink into our
area and gradually stall as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper
flow. This setup will allow for periodic bouts of showers and
thunderstorms through Saturday.

Will continue to mention a couple of hazards during this stretch as
the pattern seems to fit the potential for each. First off, we`ll
see plenty of deep moisture pooling along the front, and with
individual waves flowing through the zonal flow aloft, each will
trigger additional clusters of convection. Repeated rainfall, heavy
at times, over the same areas could result in some larger rainfall
totals, especially as we enter the weekend. As previous discussion
mentioned, time in between each wave will help with recover so not
expecting widespread issues, but localized issues will be possible.
WPC Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall makes sense.

The other issue will be the threat for some strong to severe storms,
most notably on Friday. NSSL ML products continue to suggest Friday
is our biggest threat, and deterministic model data seems to agree
that this will be the strongest perturbation ejecting out across our
area. The enhanced shear profile combined with moderate instability
should create the ingredients for at least some organized severe
weather threat. Hail and damaging winds would be the main threats in
addition to localized flash flooding concerns with this wave. Agree
with previous discussion that current forecast soundings don`t show
much of a threat for tornadic potential, and given that there
doesn`t look to be much of a surface reflection with that wave it
would make sense to have a more unidirectional shear profile.
The expansion of the SPC Day 3 Outlook looks pretty reasonable.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

Another shortwave embedded within the parent troughing over the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will rotate through late Saturday,
finally helping to shunt the lingering cold front south of our area.
Looks like this could give us a brief period of higher confidence in
drier conditions later Saturday night through most of Sunday. Any
reprieve from rain chances will likely be short-lived as an
anomalous closed low rotates into the upper Midwest/western Great
Lakes region. This will likely bring more shower and storm chances
back for Monday/Tuesday, but overall confidence is only low to
medium as the upper pattern is a little messy ahead of that. Overall
cooler temperatures are expected for this period as post-frontal
setup combines with general troughiness over the region. Look for
temps ranging from around 80 to the lower 80s for most.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 146 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through this forecast cycle
as high pressure remains over the region. Light SSE winds continue
early this morning with a few upper clouds. By late morning, look
for steady SSW winds with a some gusts up around 20-25 mph at times.
A few-sct cu field around 5 k feet should develop early afternoon,
however will diminish by late afternoon as increased upper sky cover
moves in. This will also likely diminish the gusts. After sunset,
look for light SE surface winds with BKN upper sky cover.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS