639
FXUS63 KLMK 011000
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
600 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms this morning through the evening,
  bringing gusty winds and heavy rain.

* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

* Turning hot and muggy again next weekend, with storm chances
  returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1231 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Upper troughing is beginning to swing through the region this
morning. A surface cold front is just northwest of our far
northwestern counties and will continue to move southeast through
the day. A weak 25-30kt LLJ is moving ahead of the trough ushering
in 2.2-2.5 inch PWATs, which is 99th percentile to near max
climatology for this time of year. Deep layer shear will be between
20-25kts, weak but enough to sustain a strong storm if it were to
develop. Some hi-res guidance suggests some surface based
instability in the early morning hours, however the last few days
have showed guidance overdoing overnight convection. Though, do
believe we could see some elevated instability and storms latching
onto the slightly better shear (given the troughing) and cold front.
Could see some storms bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Storms
should be progressive across the region to limit the flooding/flash
flooding risk, however it is still possible with training
showers/storms.

These storms will push east through the day. Showers and storms will
get another push or diurnally driven instability to sustain gusty
winds and heavy rain east of I-65. The cold front will lag behind,
finally exiting in the late evening hours.

Overnight, conditions will remain dry as surface high pressure
begins to move into the region. Winds will be calm to light and
skies will clear out quickly. Patchy, dense fog development will be
possible given these conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Wednesday - Thursday Night...

High pressure over the region at the beginning of the long term,
bringing drier conditions. With troughing remaining to the north of
the region, we will be under a slight NW flow pattern aloft, which
will help to keep our dew points on the lower side and conditions
more comfortable. Ridging will build to the SW of the region,
helping to keep temperatures near normal in the mid to upper 80s and
flirting with 90 in the urban areas. On Thursday night, a cold front
will move into the region from the north however we are not
expecting any showers from this boundary.

Independence Day...

The cold front will push through the region bringing surface high
pressure in behind. Ridging aloft will increase heights and
temperatures over the region. Expecting to see sunny skies, mostly
dry conditions, high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s, and
dew points in the upper 60s. Heat indices will be in the mid 90s and
some areas reaching the upper 90s briefly. Given the holiday and
outdoor activities, good idea to find some shade and hydrate during
the peak heating hours.

This Weekend into Early Next Week...

Surface high pressure will begin to slip off to the east and
southwesterly flow will return to the region. This will bring dew
points into the low 70s. Continued ridging aloft will allow
temperatures to remain in the low-mid 90s over the weekend and into
early next week. Some areas may see upper 90s heat indices during
peak heating hours. Diurnally driven shower and storm chances will
increase by late Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Troughing aloft and a surface cold front will push through the
region today bringing showers and storms out ahead of it. Showers
and storms will continue to push through this morning, before
another line forms and pushes through in the afternoon over the
eastern areas. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible. As the
front passes, winds will shift to the northwest and remain light.
MVFR CIGs are possible as these showers move through. Tuesday
morning, patchy dense fog development will be possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW