955
FXUS63 KLMK 081804
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
204 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  today.  Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
  lightning will be the primary weather hazards.

* The late weekend and into early next week will feature drier and
  hotter conditions with highs warming into the lower 90s.

* An active stretch of weather looks increasingly likely during mid
  to late next week. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms could move
  through the region, with strong to severe storms at times and
  heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Early this morning, skies were clear to partly cloudy across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky.  A northward moving outflow
boundary combined with a small scale perturbation moving through in
the mean flow aloft kicked off a small cluster of storms earlier
across southern IN.  These storms quickly consumed the available
instability and have dissipated.   Temperatures across the region
were mild this morning with readings in the 70-75 degree range.  For
the remainder of the overnight, much of the guidance shows dry
conditions with lows remaining in the lower 70s through sunrise.  We
could see some patchy fog in the usual valley and low-lying areas.

For today, the synoptic pattern aloft has not changed much in the
last few days.  We`ll see continued ridging over the western CONUS
with a broad, low-amplitude trough axis centered over the Midwest
and Great Lakes.  This feature will slowly move eastward today and
deamplify with time.  A weak frontal boundary will drift down toward
the region from the north this afternoon and evening.  Synoptic
scale forcing continues to look rather nebulous across the region
today.  With diurnal heating, we`ll see temperatures warm back into
the upper 80s to around 90.  We`ll see instability develop during
the afternoon.  However, model proximity soundings continue to show
very weak shear across the region (generally 15-20kts).  In the
absence of focused synoptic scale forcing, scattered convection will
be possible across the region this afternoon and this evening.
Coverage looks to be 20-40% centered mainly south of the WK/BG
Parkways.  Given the environment, any storm will be capable of
torrential downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

For tonight, the flow aloft will continue to deamplify as the weak
trough axis over the Ohio Valley loses amplitude and slides off to
the east.  Other than some residual convection from the afternoon,
expect that convection to diminish with the setting sun allowing for
a quiet overnight period of weather.  Lows will generally be in the
69-74 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

As we move into the later half of the weekend and into early next
week, the overall forecast thinking has not changed substantially.
The flow pattern across North America will generally be zonal with a
slight ridge over the western CONUS.  The storm track will be well
to our north with the strongest belt of westerlies running from the
northern High Plains through the Great Lakes and into southern New
England.  A perturbation within the mean flow will move eastward
across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes.  A cluster of strong to
severe storms looks to move through the Midwest and into the
southern Great Lakes.  At this time, much of this activity looks to
stay well north of the LMK CWA.  However, there is a slight chance
that some southward moving outflow could clip our far northeast
areas and spark some showers/storms.  Latest LREF members keep PoPs
across the region very low (10-20%).  The main weather story will be
an increasingly warm airmass developing across the region with highs
Sunday afternoon warming into the lower 90s.  Given that dewpoints
will be the low-mid 70s, it will be rather humid with afternoon heat
indices warming into the mid-upper 90s.  Lows Sunday night will be
in the 70-75 degree range. Similar conditions are expected on Monday
with afternoon highs in the lower 90s with afternoon heat indices
topping out in the 95-100 degree range.

By Tuesday, we`ll see the upper level pattern amplify slightly with
ridging building across the western CONUS and downstream troughing
developing along the eastern US coast.  Locally, we`ll see heights
fall slightly with the flow aloft becoming more northwesterly with
time.  Most of the day on Tuesday looks to remain dry.  However,
small scale perturbations will likely cruise through in the mean
flow aloft and may bring a cluster of showers/storms to the region
by late Tuesday.  Highs Tuesday afternoon will be in the lower 90s
with overnight lows in the 70-75 degree range.

For the remainder of the workweek, the flow aloft will remain
northwesterly.  We`ll see a few perturbations within the flow move
through the region and these could bring episodic bouts of
thunderstorms to the region.  Given model soundings and a slight
increase in wind shear, strong to severe storms could be possible at
times along with heavy rainfall.  It is still way too early to
speculate on storm severity and locations at this time range.
Additionally, there continues to be some model spread on just where
the storm track will set up.  Recent model runs suggests that some
stronger ridging may develop across TX and into the southeast which
may result in a slight northward shift of the storm track.  This
could lead to the storm corridor setting up from the Midwest down
through the I-70 corridor.  The multiple rounds of convection will
likely lead to excessive rainfall from the Midwest into the
middle/northern portions of the Ohio Valley.  Temperatures are
expected to be a little cooler with the expected shower/storms
around.  Highs Wednesday through Friday look to warm into the upper
80s with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Showers and
storms have developed south of BWG and will continue through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Given the close proximity, VCTS
was included in their TAF through 19z, with a prob30 group of -TSRA
through 00Z. If a thunderstorm were to occur, a brief reduction in
visibility is possible with a heavier downpour. All other sites
should remain dry through the TAF period, with relatively light SSW
winds forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BEN