906
FXUS63 KLMK 131049
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
649 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A cold front will bring scattered showers during the morning hours
  today. There is a low probability (10%) of thunderstorms. Severe
  weather is not expected.

* Much warmer weather arrives this weekend, with near record highs
  possible Sunday and Monday (low 90s).

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday.
  Additional showers and thunderstorms appear likely next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A weak cold front associated with a low pressure system over the
Great Lakes will push through the Ohio Valley today. A band of rain
showers will move in from the NW this morning and diminish as it
moves through the Bluegrass region. Overall confidence is low in
thunderstorm potential because of the timing of the showers and lack
of overall instability to develop any storms. The far eastern part
of the CWA has a 10 - 20% chance of thunder in the afternoon as
there is a marginal amount of instability (400-600 J/kg), however
the front would need to slow for the ingredients to align. QPF values
are minimal with localized areas only up to 0.15". Winds will
increase this afternoon with gusts 20-25 mph out of the WNW. High
temperatures today will warm into the mid to upper 70s across the
forecast area.

The front will exit out of eastern KY by this evening, and surface
high pressure will build back in behind it. Skies will clear for the
overnight over hours with light NNW winds, cooling temps to the low
to mid 40s. Surface high pressure will keep Thursday dry with clear
skies, and afternoon temperatures warming into the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Thursday Night - Friday...

A narrow ridge axis will traverse the region Thursday night. Skies
look to start off mostly clear, though we may see increasing clouds
by dawn Friday ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving over the
Mid-MS Valley. Winds will be light and variable or calm overnight
with the sfc high overhead and then shifting to the east. It will be
another cool night with lows in the 40s. The Bluegrass Region will
see the lowest temps in the low 40s. Lows in the mid/upper 40s look
more likely along and west of I-65.

The mid-level shortwave trough will quickly move over the Lower OH
Valley on Friday in the left exit region of a southern CONUS jet
streak. The low-level airmass remains quite cool and dry to start
off Friday, though we do see steady warm, moist advection throughout
the day. It appears upstream rain showers will diminish as they
attempt to push in from the west, and LREF members remain split on
precip chances (ENS members are notably wetter). Think there is
enough of a signal for at least a slight chance mention of isolated
showers, though the QPF is relatively light and low confidence. In
general, Friday looks mostly pleasant with afternoon temps warming
into the mid/upper 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

Low-level ridging amplifies off the Southeast US coast heading into
the weekend. Southwesterly flow will continue to funnel warm, moist
air into the region. This signals a pretty significant pattern shift
that will linger through the end of this forecast period. A
consensus of medium range guidance pushes sfc dewpoints into the low
to mid 60s by Saturday, and this increased low-level moisture
contributes to LREF mean SBCAPE of around 1500 J/kg.

This will also mean warmer temperatures, with Saturday morning lows
only falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s in most places.
Temperatures should then rise into the mid 80s Saturday afternoon,
though the potential for convection complicates the temperature
forecast. Another shortwave disturbance will likely interact with
the warm, moist airmass, yielding scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Deep-layer flow is weak, which reduces the threat for
organized severe convection. However, we could see some stronger
storms capable of heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning.

Sunday - Tuesday...

After the Saturday disturbance passes by, the weather likely dries
out for Sunday. We will see rising heights aloft over the eastern
CONUS downstream of a digging western CONUS trough. Sfc low pressure
spins up east of the Rockies and eventually develops northeast
across the central Plains and Upper Midwest heading into early next
week. A warm front will lift well north of the region by Sunday and
Sunday night. This places us within a broad warm sector with deep SW
flow and a strengthening mid/upper level ridge over the SE CONUS.

The above pattern will keep us dry and very warm on Sunday, with
afternoon temperatures soaring into the upper 80s. Some locations
could touch 90. Sfc low pressure lifts into the Upper Midwest by
Monday, with the trailing cold front still well off to the west. We
should stay dry into Monday morning, but we could see isolated to
scattered convection approach the area by Monday evening as the LLJ
and moisture transport axis translate eastward. The sfc cold front
is forecast to sink southeast across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys
Monday night into Tuesday. Pooled moisture along this boundary is
likely to send PW values above 1.5 inches, exceeding the
climatological 95th percentile. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Tuesday, which could include some potential for
heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Scattered rain showers are currently moving through the area
bringing a band of OVC080 clouds. Rain is expected to be out of all
sites by 13z, along with clearing skies. As the front pushes through
the region, winds will take a shift from SW to NNW with wind gusts
20-25kts into the afternoon hours. Skies will mostly clear by this
evening with lingering FEW250, and completely clear out around 06z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CAL