808
FXUS63 KLMK 081112
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
712 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Areal flooding continues to diminish but river flooding will
  continue into the second half of April.

* A freeze will be possible Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as well,
  with the coldest readings taking place in the Blue Grass in the
  middle 20s.

* Showers return to the region Wednesday night through Friday but
  total rainfall amounts will be light and should not have an impact
  on river flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Currently, the axis of a sharply amplified ridge is moving east into
the Plains while pushing on an upper trough the Great Lakes. As the
Lower Ohio Valley sits in-between the ridge and trough, northwest
upper flow is pushing surface high pressure through the Midwest into
our region. This along with north surface winds on the east side of
the high have cleared most of the skies over southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, only clouds over eastern Kentucky and far southern
Kentucky remain, and soon these will be out of the area. The clear
skies and cold air advection are causing temperatures to drop this
morning, and with temperatures expected to reach into the 20s, the
freeze warning remains in place.

For the rest of the day, expect sunny skies to remain as the upper
ridge inches eastward and the surface high moves southeast closer to
the CWA. This will also keep CAA in place, but winds will ease
throughout the day as the surface high gets closer. Even with all the
sun, the CAA will keep temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than
yesterday in most places, topping out in the low 40s across
southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky to the low 50s in far
southern Kentucky.

Tonight, with the surface high directly overhead, winds will go near
calm while skies remain mostly clear. This is expected to lead to
strong radiative cooling, and temperatures are once again expected
to fall below freezing across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
On the flip side, some mid and high level clouds are expected to
move into the region on northwest flow early Wednesday morning, so
depending on how dense these clouds are and when they arrive,
radiative cooling could be limited. For now, went ahead and issued a
Freeze Watch for the possible freeze along with neighbors to the
east. Areas farther to the north and west will likely see cloud
cover sooner and will likely remain warmer than those to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Upper level flow transition from SW to NW will have completed,
tending to prevent much in the way of substantial warming. At least
much above normal. Quiet overall conditions will prevail through
most of Wednesday, including warm air advection return with the
departing surface high. Southerly winds won`t be substantial, around
10-15 mph, but coupled with at least some sunshine will allow highs
upwards of 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Tuesday into the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Warmest areas will be south where sunshine will hang on
longest before cloud cover and the beginning of a series of
shortwaves riding the NW upper flow begin to affect the region.

By Wednesday overnight, first in a series of shortwaves will move
into the region with an attendant surface low. Consensus remains in
passing the low north of the state, too keeping much of the warm
sector/isentropically driven precipitation chances north into
Illinois/Indiana/Ohio during the day/evening Wednesday. Northern
areas carry some chance, but amounts would be light. This will push
bulk of precipitation chances, including thunder, into the overnight
and morning hours Thursday as front passes. Nocturnal to morning
timing keeps activity elevated and with only weak instability
depicted, limits concerns to thunder and brief moderate to heavy
rainfall. Progressive nature too will limit exacerbating existing
hydrologic issues.

Thursday sees temperatures warm a few degrees over Wednesday, thanks
to lack of any truly cold air associated with overnight frontal
passage, but cloudy skies and chances for showers remain as another,
stronger shortwave swings through. This feature will be highlighted
be stronger mid-upper level lift and more disorganized surface
reflection. With depictions of a few hundred J/kg CAPE,
scattered to areas of thunder appear likely Thursday evening and
into the overnight, but risk for much more appears low with
unsupportive wind profiles for organization. Will be some risk
for localized moderate to heavy rainfall, but again generally
progressive nature may help limit issues.

By Friday and thru the weekend, larger trough begins to pivot/slide
eastward, yielding upper level height rises and what should be a
quiet and warming weekend. Highs in the 50s Friday warm into the
60s by Sunday and 70s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 711 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. As a
surface high drops southeast through the Midwest towards the Lower
Ohio Valley, north winds will ease and go calm tonight. Skies will
remain clear until upper clouds begin moving in from the northwest
late tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
     Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
     Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM... WFO EAX
AVIATION...KDW