712
FXUS63 KLMK 021130
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
630 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mainly cloudy but warming above freezing later this afternoon with
  a chance of light flurries this morning.

* A wintry mix of rain and snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday,
  with the potential of an inch or two north of the I-64 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 630 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Weak clipper system is passing across the Great Lakes as sfc high
pressure slides off to the east. Radar mosaic this morning shows a
band of light snow stretching from Lake Michigan southward through
central IN and just west of I-65. While radar is showing
precipitation, observation and area cameras have shown very little
of snow reaching the surface. Clouds have been on the increase
overnight ahead of an approaching cold front and area of sfc high
pressure that will drop out of Canada and into the Dakotas and Upper
Midwest during the day. Where the clouds have been most of the
overnight temperatures were in the low/mid 20s but where it has been
clear, to the east of I-65 and along the I-75 corridor, temperatures
were in the low/mid teens. As clouds build in and the clipper works
through the Great Lakes, we may see some light snow or flurries,
mainly along and north of the Ohio River and I-64 corridor but I
wouldn`t be surprised if most stay dry.

Low stratus will also build in this morning and remain trapped under
an inversion with temperatures doing something that many have not
experienced since Jan 22, warm above freezing. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to warm into the mid/upper 30s with near
40 degrees closer to the TN/KY border as good southwesterly flow
continues to advect in warm air from the south. It will remain
mostly cloudy into the overnight, temperatures will cool into the
mid/upper 20s. With warm moist air continuing to advect tonight into
tomorrow morning. There may be the possibility of some patchy
advection fog as the warmer air interacts with the snowpack and cold
ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Embedded shortwave will work out of the Upper Midwest/northern
Plains Monday night into Tuesday as a weak sfc low develops over the
Ozarks by Tuesday morning and models seem to be more in agreement of
bringing the center of this system right through central KY during
the day. Isentropic lift increases ahead of the approaching sfc low
with models now developing this initial round of precipitation north
of the Ohio River across southern IN into central IN Tuesday
morning. Likely this precipitation will fall as all snow then as
lift increases as the system approaches the CWA, we will see a mix
of snow, rain/snow and all rain. While the models are starting to
agree on the track, any shift north or south would change where snow
falls and where all rain will fall. The other main challenge is how
the Hi-res models are starting to handle this system. With the NAM
being a bit more aggressive but also keeping the bulk of the snow
across central IN into northern KY and southeast OH around
Cincinnati. The HRRR on the other wants to phase the area of
precipitation with a band of snow across central IN then develops
more steady precipitation further east into eastern KY, keeping the
CWA mainly dry. The other noted trend in the model guidance is it
appears to be through quicker with most of the precipitation out of
the CWA Tuesday evening. This is also important as it would limit
any snow accumulation and could mean more rain than what was
originally thought.  Temperatures will warm during the day and into
the upper 30s north along the Ohio River with low/mid 40s as you go
further south.

Behind the low, cold air advection returns as a surface high drops
in from the northwest. Tuesday night`s lows return to the mid teens
north of Interstate 64 to the upper 20s in southern Kentucky. The
mid 20s to mid 30s remain for Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure
diving south towards the CWA will bring warm air advection back for
Friday, but as temperatures climb into the 40s, the system`s cold
front pushes south through the region. Light precipitation could
pass through the CWA with the best chances in southeast Indiana and
the Bluegrass.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Mid to low-level stratus will continue to increase over the area
this morning and remain through the afternoon. Winds will gradually
increase out of the southwest to between 5-10kts. This afternoon and
evening from SDF to LEX there could be a period of MVFR CIGS just
below 3K ft to maybe as low as 2K ft for a period. No significant
impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN