Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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789 FXUS63 KLMK 091947 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 247 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Widespread rain and isolated storms are expected tonight through Sunday afternoon. Between 1.0 to 1.5" of rain expected for most with higher localized amounts. * Breezy non-thunderstorm winds Sunday afternoon. * Rain tapers off Sunday night. Mostly dry week ahead other than scattered showers Wednesday night. Temperatures slightly warmer than normal. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Synopsis...Weakening upper-level low will translate from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes in the next 24 hours as it drags an occluded surface low and attendant fronts in a similar fashion. Meanwhile, the currently reigning mid-level ridge and surface high pressure will be displaced to the east and south allowing theta-e advection and increasing rain/storms chances over the region during tonight and tomorrow. Model Evaluation/Confidence...There is medium to high confidence in rainfall amounts through Sunday evening given large model agreement. Most of the latest deterministic guidance (NAM/ICON/GFS/CMC) have the greatest accumulations (1.0-1.5) focusing on a swath oriented SW- NE across central Kentucky. Nonetheless, a tendency for a secondary maximum of rainfall is observed along the Ohio River in models such as the ECMWF, UKMET, RRFS, and HRW-FV3. Otherwise, probabilities of organized severe weather are negligible based on the CSU ML Severe Guidance and Nadocast. Afternoon/Evening...Isentropic lifting/moisture ahead of a warm front surging across the Deep South is contributing to overcast skies and high-based radar echoes already streaming into central Kentucky. Surface observations over northern Tennessee and KY Mesonet are reporting light rain or sprinkles, with heavier precipitation rates not expected until later this evening and tonight when top-down moistening via evaporational cooling and horizontal moisture advection saturate the low levels. No lightning is expected this afternoon or early evening based on the lack of forcing and mixed-phase hydrometeors as well as poor mid-level lapse rates. Tonight...GFS forecast soundings and several model outputs depict better support for increasing coverage moderate rainfall showers after 10/3Z given an almost complete saturated profile with PW around 1.5-1.6 inches, arguably due to moisture transport from the outer periphery of TC Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, enhanced forcing thanks to DCVA ahead of the ejecting upper low and a developing 40+-knot low-level jet across central Kentucky could be sufficient for isolated thunder chances overnight. This activity will be elevated in nature as a strong near-surface inversion emerges with the LLJ, limiting any momentum transfer from the winds aloft. As for flooding issues, precip. accumulation before sunrise should be close to 1.0 inch in some places which is below FFG at the moment while HREF probabilities of 1"/hr are extremely low. Therefore, widespread flooding is not expected with perhaps minor localized ponding issues. Sunday...Low-level jet will continue during the morning and afternoon hours as it slightly strengthens and slowly lifts to the northeast. Light to moderate elevated showers and isolated thunder will still be ongoing during the first morning hours; however, there might be an opportunity for breaks after 10/14Z as the activity reorganizes to the west and best forcing moves to the east. Limited daytime mixing will slowly erode the near surface inversion and some gusts between 20-30 mph could be reported by midmorning and especially during the afternoon. Persistent, thick cloudiness will block any attempts of destabilization, so instability will be rather meager in the afternoon. Then, hi-res guidance suggest a semi-broken line of convection, that according to GFS soundings, has a better chance to be surface based. If such a line materializes, then brief heavy rainfall and lightning would be the main threats as weak instability, poor lapse rates, and dry air entrainment will inhibit severe weather once again. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Sunday night the rain will taper off from west to east as the cold front pushes through the region. Additional rainfall amounts will be light, from little if any in southern Indiana to around a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region. Monday and Tuesday still look like very pleasant fall days with plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures as high pressure advances from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Though winds will be light and mixing won`t be particularly deep, soundings showing some very dry low level air so went on the low side of guidance for afternoon dew points, especially Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday low pressure will weaken as it crosses Ontario and drags its cold front through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Gulf moisture attempts to return northward but the front is progged to push through just as that moisture is about to arrive. The better dynamics will be to our north as a sharp 5H shortwave trough crosses the Lakes. As a result, just some scattered showers are expected with this system from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. If the current fropa timing holds, total rainfall will likely be around a tenth of an inch, if even that much. We`ll return to dry weather Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves right over us on its way from the Ozarks to the southern Appalachians. This air mass will be Pacific (as opposed to Canadian or Arctic) in origin, so temperatures will continue to be mild by mid-November standards. The next weather maker will begin to approach from the west this weekend, especially by Sunday and into the early part of the following week. CPC has outlooked a slight risk for heavy precipitation November 17-19, which agrees with a local large-scale signal analysis that was done, though there are some indications that the corridor of heaviest rainfall will be off to our west. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Impacts/Confidence: - High confidence in MVFR CIG/VIS tonight as rain spreads the area - High confidence in gusty southerly winds tomorrow - Increasing confidence in non-convective LLWS later tonight through Sunday morning if convection delays. Discussion...Current VFR conditions will continue across the TAF area until at least this evening. Then, a warm front approaching from the Deep South will progressively increase rain chances and lower the cloud base to MVFR thresholds. Heavier rain showers would be strong enough to reduce visibility to MVFR levels, and perhaps IFR at times. At the same time, a 50-knot LLJ will develop and bisect the Lower Ohio Valley starting around 9Z and depart late Sunday afternoon. Current concern is that given inversion in place and low confidence in storm chances, moderate non-convective LLWS would develop late tonight and during the morning hours. For the time being, decided to leave out any storm or non-convective LLWS mention in the TAF and let the next shift take a better look at it. For Sunday, ceilings will gradually lower to IFR while south winds turn gusty amid augmenting low-level mixing. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ALL LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...ALL