237
FXUS63 KLMK 090046
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
846 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Any remaining showers end early tonight

* Drier conditions through the weekend, with daily high temperatures
  in the upper 80s to near 90 through next week.

* Shower and storm chances increase again early next week as cold
  front approaches the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

An isolated shower or two remain over southern Kentucky as an old
outflow continues to sweep westward. After this boundary exits to
the west and the sun sets, the region will remain clear and dry with
light winds. Some very patchy, thin fog may develop in the river
valley areas. Made some slight adjustments to the PoPs with current
radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

An upper ridge, extending northeast through the Great Lakes region
from an upper high over New Mexico, continues to work east over the
Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the
New England coast as low pressure sits centered over eastern
Colorado. A local high over eastern Kentucky is helping to keep
light winds mostly out of the southeast. Precipitable water values
aren`t too bad today ranging from around 1.25-1.5" with lower
amounts generally in the Bluegrass region and higher amounts to the
southwest. Scattered to broken cumulus blanket the CWA, and besides
an isolated shower in Harrison County, KY and isolated to scattered
showers across southern Kentucky, most will remain dry for the rest
of the day.

Tonight, any remaining precipitation will come to an end, and skies
will clear as winds ease to near calm. Some limited fog is possible
with the best chances being in areas that see rain today (Lake
Cumberland area). Temperatures are expected to dip into the upper
60s to low 70s.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge will keep mid-level subsidence in place,
limiting overall precipitation. An isolated shower isn`t out of the
question, but overall expecting less rain than today. Mostly sunny
skies will lead to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

== Saturday Night through Sunday Night ==

Upper ridging continues to build through the latter half of the
weekend, leaving most of the Ohio Valley high and dry. Can`t rule
out a stray pop-up Sunday afternoon in southern Indiana, but with
PWATs at a modest-for-August 1.5 inches, that probability is too low
to even mention a 20 POP. What most people will see in terms of
sensible wx is a Light winds from the S/SE will keep the dewpoints
muggy but manageable in the upper 60s, with temps running just on
the high side of seasonal normals.

== Monday through Friday ==

Largely a transition day on Monday as the upper ridge starts to
break down and deep moisture increases. We will reintroduce a slight
chance POP to cover isolated afternoon storms, mainly in southern
Indiana and south-central Kentucky, with the dry weather trying to
hang on a bit longer in between. The rest of the week is a fairly
unsettled quasi-zonal pattern with an increasing supply of deep
moisture, so scattered afternoon convection is a good bet each day.
WIll carry diurnal precip chances for most of the week, peaking on
Wednesday when an upper shortwave trof pushes east across the Ohio
Valley. Not impressed with the SVR potential as the wind fields
remain quite weak, but slow-moving storms releasing ~2 inch PWATs
could drop locally heavy rainfall on any given day. Temps will
remain close to climo, if not a little bit above at night, but will
feel a bit more muggy with dewpoints creeping up into the lower 70s.
Any day that fails to trigger convection would have a better shot to
get solidly into the lower 90s, in which case afternoon heat index
values could push 100.

==Final Thoughts==

And with that it is time to stack the chairs on the tabletops, and
hang the sheets on the chandeliers as I depart the NWS after 26
years. The best wisdom I can leave behind is that the vital National
Weather Service mission, one I strongly believe in, is far bigger
than any one person. In fact, the protection of life and property is
beyond what the NWS can accomplish on its own; it also takes the
dedicated work of our partners to bring the warning process through
the last mile, to ensure that information is received, understood,
and acted upon by the public. It has been a privilege to help build
and nurture these partnerships with broadcast media, emergency
management, forestry, transportation, and multiple other sectors.
May they continue to evolve to better serve the public that we all
work to protect.

Remember as you work with different partners from widely varied
backgrounds, that you are united by a shared mission, and everyone
brings something to the table. Always strive to "meet people where
they are." Different backgrounds and different strengths/weaknesses
are a positive in team building, and will better enable a team to
respond to any challenge that comes its way.

Finally, remember to embrace changes in how the NWS connects with
its partners and the public. The one constant in my 26 years has
been change, and it only continues to accelerate. Keeping up with
change, and meeting people where they are, is how the NWS will
continue to accomplish the mission of protecting lives and property.

"Changes aren`t permanent, but change is."

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The afternoon Cu field is dissipating at this hour. The remainder of
the overnight period will consist of clear skies and light winds. In
the morning, winds will pick up out of the south around 5-8kts. Fog
chances overnight are small and confidence is low, HNB/RGA/BWG would
be the termials to fog in the early morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRW