433
FXUS63 KLMK 020456
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1256 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers and storms will continue this afternoon and
  evening mainly south and west of Louisville until sunset.

* Dry weather and seasonable temperatures from a strong surface high
  is expected from Tuesday through most of the week.

* General showers and storm chances increase this weekend along with
  highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Things are mostly quiet across the CWA at this hour, however did
have to update to include a mention of some sprinkles across our NE
CWA through the evening hours. Seeing some light returns on radar,
and although they are deeper into the dry air with large T/Td
spreads, some light rain appears to be hitting the ground over
central and SE Indiana based on obs. Given that this precipitation
is falling out of a 7-9 K ft deck, and T/Td spreads are still
sizable over our NE CWA, elected to just add some sprinkle mention
through Midnight. May still consider adding a 20% pop if returns and
upstream obs continue to suggest .01" may be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

This Evening - Tuesday Night...

General broken cloud cover is moving west to east now and will
eventually clear the area overnight. Interestingly, there is a
mesolow moving SE over our western counties, creating a visible
swirl in cloud cover on visible satellite imagery. This will
continue to move SE and out of the area by nightfall. As this exits,
a surface high pressure centered over southern Canada will usher in
much drier air overnight, clearing skies by the early morning hours
on Tuesday. Along the leading edge of the advancing dry air mass,
there may be just enough lift to create a few more showers or a weak
storm in our SW CWA where higher PWAT values are now, though PoPs
will remain at or below 30% just before sunset. Any additional
rainfall will be below 0.1", especially with the loss of daytime
heating. Light N/NE winds will dominate overnight reinforcing cooler
drier air for Tuesday.

Morning lows on Tuesday will be slightly cooler than today`s, with
temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s along the TN border.  The
surface high pressure over southern Canada will begin moving
southward, reinforcing a dry NE flow throughout the day on Tuesday.
As noted in the last forecast discussion, the strength of this high
is abnormally strong. With 80th - 90th percentile of MSLP moving in,
the resultant pressure gradient will be enough for a breezy day
tomorrow. Wind gusts around 20mph are expected with this set up as
well. Furthermore, the dry air moving in by morning will be very
dry, with dewpoints reaching the mid 40s to low 50s. PWATs
throughout the day will be very low as well, reaching the 10th
- 20th percentile range. Considering this, fog formation seems
very unlikely (<10%) across the CWA. Despite a few passing clouds in
the afternoon hours, Tuesday seems to be an enjoyable day with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s and low dew points in the 40s and low
50s. As the Canadian surface high continues to drift southward,
skies will remain mostly clear overnight Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Wednesday - Friday...

With this strong Canadian high overhead Wednesday morning, strong
subsidence and the continued dry NE flow will keep climatological
PWAT values hovering near the 20th percentile. Morning temperatures
remain in the low to mid 50s before warming into the upper 70s and
low 80s again by the afternoon. Skies should remain mostly clear
throughout the day again, leading to another pleasant day to be
outdoors. Winds should be slightly weaker as the center of the high
will be close by, meaning a weaker pressure gradient will be
present, though lighter breezy winds will continue in the afternoon.
Later overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday morning, this high
pressure will break down and push towards the SE coast, switching
the general synoptic flow out of the SW by Thursday morning. As a
result, warmer temperatures and dew points will filter their way
back into the CWA. By Thursday afternoon, highs will be warmer in
the mid 80s, though remaining dry from the continued subsidence.

Broad ridging throughout the low to high levels of the troposphere
will begin funneling in warm air from the southwest. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 80s.

Next Weekend...

Beyond Friday, long range guidance is forestalling this coming
weekend`s rain chances from an incoming trough. Due to the strength
of the SE ridge, the general trend is to prolong our expected dry
stretch until Sunday afternoon, though some models bring in rain
chances on Saturday. Increasing moisture transport from the SW over
the weekend introduces low end PoPs around 30-40% for general
thunderstorms. Similar to a summer set up, storms would pop up
during the afternoon and dissipate during the evening hours. Should
the SE ridge move further away, the incoming trough from the Plains
could increase moisture transport over the CWA for more widespread
showers and storms. PWATs will increase this coming weekend but
until timing and the strength of the SE ridge can be determined, low
end PoPs for the weekend will be included in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this TAF cycle. Light
sprinkles are noted over central Kentucky at this hour and will work
south through the remainder of the overnight period. High pressure
will work into the region from the north, which will help to clear
skies by mid-morning. Ample mixing and an increased pressure
gradient ahead of the high pressure will allow for breezy
northeasterly winds. In the afternoon, we will see gusts 19-24kts.
Wind gusts will subside with sunset this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...SRW