415
FXUS63 KLMK 051053
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
653 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather expected through Saturday, with afternoon highs in the
  mid to upper 80s.

* Muggy weather increases this weekend as daily shower and
  thunderstorm chances return on Sunday and remain through mid next
  week. There is a small chance for isolated showers and storms on
  Saturday, though confidence is low.

* Slightly above average temperatures continue through the first
  half of next week with upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

High pressure at the surface will continue to slowly shift eastward
today through Saturday. This will allow for southwesterly winds to
bring in better moisture. Dew points will steadily increase through
Saturday, which will increase muggy conditions. Ridging aloft will
persist through this timeframe, though expecting ridging to push off
to the east and broaden over the southeast CONUS. We will see
temperatures continue to warm with highs in the mid 80s today and
mid-upper 80s and touching 90 on Saturday.

A series of shortwave trough will pass to the north. These systems
and being located on the western periphery of the surface high
pressure will allow for gusty winds this afternoon and Saturday
afternoon around 20-25mph. Any precip with these systems will mostly
remain to the north of the region, given the drier airmass over the
lower Ohio Valley. Though a few very isolated showers will be
possible north of I-64. Will carry a 10-15% PoP for the
morning and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Moving into Sunday, ridging begins to build over the central US. At
the same time, a closed low over the southern Plains will attempt to
push northeast. Vorticity shedding from the closed low will move
northeast into the Ohio Valley, which will increase lift as
southerly flow continues to pump moisture into the region. At the
surface, the cold front will continue to move south through the Ohio
Valley, bringing additional lift. Waves of scattered to numerous
showers are expected on Sunday and through mid next week. In the
afternoons a few storms will be possible, though severe weather is
not expected given weak flow and ridging aloft. Rainfall totals have
trended a bit higher over the last few forecast runs. Now looking at
0.75-1.5 inches from Sunday through mid next week.

Temperatures will remain pretty steady during this timeframe in the
mid-upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions continue through this forecast period. SCT high
clouds will be common today. SW winds will increase to 10-12+ kts
after 15Z Friday, with gusts of 15-20 kts during the afternoon
hours. In the evening, these winds will reduce.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW