211
FXUS63 KLMK 110529
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon and again on
  Thursday.  Peak afternoon heat indices of 95-105 are possible each
  afternoon.

* An approaching cold front Thursday Night/Friday will provide
  another opportunity for showers and storms, timing remains a bit
  uncertain.

* After a dry Saturday, an unsettled and overall cooler pattern
  takes hold for late weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Short term ridging has built into the region today and resulted in a
much drier pattern across the region.  Satellite and observations
reveal mostly sunny skies across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky.  Abundant low-level moisture remains in place and has led
to a fairly dense Cu field.  Despite the Cu field, temperatures have
warmed into the the mid-upper 80s.  A few of the urban centers have
already breached 90.  These temps combined with dewpoints in the low-
mid 70s has resulted in heat indices in the mid-upper 90s with a
few spots out in the I-165 corridor breaking 100 degrees.

For the remainder of the afternoon, no significant weather is
expected.  Afternoon highs will top out in the 85-90 degrees with
heat index readings topping out in the mid-upper 90s.  The best
chances of seeing heat indices above 100 will be limited to areas
along and west of I-65.

For tonight, ridging will stay in place aloft resulting in a
quiet/tranquil weather period.  Overnight lows look to drop into the
lower 70s for most area.  The urban corridors will likely remain
milder with readings in the middle 70s.  Will need to watch upstream
convection over the Midwest.  Most model guidance shows this
convection weakening overnight as it approaches the region, though a
few model outliers believe that some shower/storms could get into
southern Indiana.  We`ll continue to monitor this, and a forecast
update later this evening may have to add some low PoPs for the
northern portions of southern IN if convection does indeed hold
together.

Moving into Thursday, ridging will hold sway across the region with
mostly sunny skies and hot/humid conditions continuing.  We`ll see
some instability develop across our northern tier of counties across
southern Indiana, but there is not particularly strong forcing
present to develop convection.  Additionally model proximity
soundings show a warm layer up around 700 mb that will effective be
a cap that might be too strong for any weak forcing to overcome.
Highs tomorrow may be a smidge higher than today with readings again
in the upper 80s to the very low 90s.  Combine those temps with
dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s will yield another day of afternoon
heat indices in the upper 90s to the lower 100s.  Confidence is not
that high that we`ll breach 105 for heat advisory criteria, even out
in the I-165 corridor.  So we`re planning on carrying on with the
Special Weather Statement to highlight the early season
heat/humidity.

By Thursday night, we`ll refocus our attention to another round of
convection that should be in progress across the Midwest region of
the US.  Most model guidance suggests that a linear MCS will develop
and eventually generate a deep cold pool allowing the convection to
surge southeast.  This activity will enter our region during the
diurnal minimum and we`ll have an environment that will be
increasingly hostile for convection.  I do have enough confidence to
warrant higher PoPs across southern IN with lesser chances
along/south of the Ohio River.  Overall, I like the Marginal Risk
for our northern areas from SPC for tomorrow night for a possible
wind threat with the decaying convection.  Lows will drop into the
upper 60s over southern IN with lower 70s across all of central
Kentucky.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Friday through Friday Night...

On Friday we`ll see the remnants of the aforementioned MCS passing
southward through our region.  Just behind this system, a surface
cold front will push through the region and bring some relief from
the heat/humidity.  As the front pushes southeast across the region,
we could see some convective redevelopment across our
eastern/southeastern sections and some of those storms could be
strong/severe.  This activity looks to push off to the southeast by
evening with a drier stretch of weather expected by Friday night.

Highs on Friday will be a little cooler with highs in the mid-upper
80s, but the main story here will be surge of much lower dewpoints
into the region which will remove the mugginess that we`ve seen
recently.  Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 50s and lower
60s.

Saturday through Sunday Night...

Forecast confidence continues to increase here with a dry period of
weather for Saturday.  The flow aloft across the region will be
zonal with a weak surface high pressure cell moving across the
region.  Highs on Saturday will warm into the 83-88 degree range.
Surface cold front from Friday will stall out to our south due to it
becoming parallel with the upper level flow.  This boundary will
remain quasi-stationary across the region Saturday night and into
Sunday.  Within this same time frame, an upper level trough axis
will approach from the northwest Saturday night and result in an
uptick of showers/storms across the region that will persist into
Sunday.  Highs on Sunday will likely be limited due to anticipated
clouds/convection, so will go with highs in the low-mid 80s here.
Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 60s.

Monday through Thursday...

Overall forecast confidence in the period remains slightly below
average as questions remain if we can get the upper level flow to
become less zonal and push our quasi-stationary boundary southward.
Am setting a little bit of a drier push on Monday in the Euro
guidance, but still think that low end PoPs will be needed in that
time period.  For Tuesday and beyond, we`ll remain in the cyclonic
flow of the upper trough and numerous small perturbations will
rotate through.  The overall ensemble blend here has trended
slightly drier, but at least climo PoPs are likely to be maintained
here until forecast confidence increases.  Temperatures will remain
a bit below normal with low-mid 80s for highs and overnight lows
in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the period.
There is upstream convection that is slowly dropping southeast out
of the Midwest towards the region early this morning, but this
activity is expected to continue to weaken as it nears HNB and SDF.
If this activity persists longer than expected TAFs will have to be
amended. Besides some scattered afternoon cumulus, southerly winds
are expected to gust to near 20 knots today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KDW