086
FXUS63 KLMK 071923
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
323 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Areal flooding will continue to slowly diminish, but river
  flooding will continue into second half of April.

* A hard freeze remains expected tonight, with many locations
  falling into the mid and upper 20s. A Freeze Warning remains in
  effect tonight into early Tuesday morning.

* Additional freeze may occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
  with coldest areas primarily east of I-65.

* Showers and thunder chances return to the forecast late
  Wednesday into Friday.

* Quieter, warming thru weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Skies and overall conditions continued to improve this morning and
afternoon as a northern stream trough moving across the Great Lakes
continues to shunt the previous system eastward. This has resulted
in clearing skies from NW to SE, prevailing N/NW winds, and
temperatures on their way to exceeding yesterday`s highs in most
locations by a handful degrees F, into the mid-upper 50s. Exception
being southern to southeast areas where slowly eroding/lingering
cloud cover will keep high temperatures similar to Sunday.

Aforementioned Great Lakes trough will continue to pivot eastward,
allowing surface high pressure to build in from the NW, bringing
with it a cold front this evening. With the frontal passage, hi-res
guidance continues to latch onto shallow showers from around 6pm-
midnight EDT as it drops across the area and state. Have kept lower-
end PoPs to account for the opportunity and scattered nature. Upon
it`s passage, skies clear back out overnight. Ongoing cold air
advection, radiational cooling and dew points falling into the lower
20s and teens will allow hard freeze over most or all of the area
with forecast lows in the mid 20s to around 30. As such a Freeze
Warning remains in place as we continue to lean into early growing
and green up season.

Approaching surface high pressure will dominate sensible weather
Tuesday, centering over the state by the the afternoon and evening.
This will keep skies clear, winds light out of the north, and push
temperatures well below normal for this time of the year into the
upper 40s and low 50s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Upper level flow transition from SW to NW will have completed,
tending to prevent much in the way of substantial warming. At least
much above normal. Quiet overall conditions will prevail through
most of Wednesday, including warm air advection return with the
departing surface high. Southerly winds won`t be substantial, around
10-15 mph, but coupled with at least some sunshine will allow highs
upwards of 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Tuesday into the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Warmest areas will be south where sunshine will hang on
longest before cloud cover and the beginning of a series of
shortwaves riding the NW upper flow begin to affect the region.

By Wednesday overnight, first in a series of shortwaves will move
into the region with an attendant surface low. Consensus remains in
passing the low north of the state, too keeping much of the warm
sector/isentropically driven precipitation chances north into
Illinois/Indiana/Ohio during the day/evening Wednesday. Northern
areas carry some chance, but amounts would be light. This will push
bulk of precipitation chances, including thunder, into the overnight
and morning hours Thursday as front passes. Nocturnal to morning
timing keeps activity elevated and with only weak instability
depicted, limits concerns to thunder and brief moderate to heavy
rainfall. Progressive nature too will limit exacerbating existing
hydrologic issues.

Thursday sees temperatures warm a few degrees over Wednesday, thanks
to lack of any truly cold air associated with overnight frontal
passage, but cloudy skies and chances for showers remain as another,
stronger shortwave swings through. This feature will be highlighted
be stronger mid-upper level lift and more disorganized surface
reflection. With depictions of a few hundred J/kg CAPE,
scattered to areas of thunder appear likely Thursday evening and
into the overnight, but risk for much more appears low with
unsupportive wind profiles for organization. Will be some risk
for localized moderate to heavy rainfall, but again generally
progressive nature may help limit issues.

By Friday and thru the weekend, larger trough begins to pivot/slide
eastward, yielding upper level height rises and what should be a
quiet and warming weekend. Highs in the 50s Friday warm into the
60s by Sunday and 70s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Nuisance MVFR ceilings continue to linger across S/SE sites
KLEX/KRGA/KBWG, though should go VFR shortly. Have only opted
to keep KRGA with prevailing MVFR for the time being given
current location of cloud deck and pace of clearing. Occasional
N/NW wind gusts into the teens kts rest of afternoon ahead of
and concurrent with passage of cold front this evening. Hi-res
guidance continues to suggest scattered shower activity with the
front, but confidence and coverage did not warrant prevailing
mentions of precipitation. Of some greater confidence is
potential for another brief period of MVFR clouds, and do have
at least some mentions for this evening. Post frontal, VFR
conditions return and prevail remainder of period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM
     CDT/ Tuesday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM
     CDT/ Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS