018
FXUS63 KLMK 241726
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
126 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Below normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

* A messy pattern will set up this week bringing multiple rounds of
  showers and some storms. This could bring 1 to 3 inches of rain
  over the region, with locally higher amounts possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

A closed upper low is currently over New England, placing a trough
over most over the eastern sea board. Upper ridging is featured to
the west over the Rockies. The lower Ohio Valley is located between
these features in northwesterly flow. Weak waves and vort lobes
along the ridging will move southwest of the region today. This will
bring scattered to broken skies and a chances for isolated, light
showers. Forecast soundings show a saturated column above 750mb,
however, below this layer it is quite dry. Therefore, any showers
that form will see modest evaporation.

High pressure at the surface will keep winds light and variable
today. High temperatures will be similar to Friday, in the upper 60s
and low 70s.

Tonight, the upper closed low will move off to the northeast and
ridging to the west will become flattened by a trough swinging
through the Great Lakes region. This will result in zonal flow over
the lower Ohio Valley. Showers and storms will remain to the
southwest of the region in the overnight, however, this will keep
broken skies overhead. Low temperatures are expected to be in the
low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Sunday...

On Sunday, a messy upper pattern will begin to take shape featuring
zonal flow overhead, ridging over the High Plains, and troughing
swinging through the Great Lakes. Vort lobes and small waves along
the zonal flow will bring episodic showers through the region.
Showers will increase in coverage from north to south. At the same
time, a stationary front that has been lingering in the mid south
will begin to lift north as a warm front. Depending on how far this
front can travel north, it would increase storm chances over
southern Kentucky. Storms would likely remain sub-severe, with the
main threat being lightning and heavy rain.

Temperatures on Sunday will likely remain in the upper 60s and low
70s, given zonal flow and cloud coverage.

Sunday Night - Monday...

Troughing over the Great Lakes will swing through the upper
Appalachians, which will allow ridging over the High Plains to
advance eastward. Ridging will amplify over the region on Monday and
surface high pressure will begin to build in over the northeastern
CONUS. Increasing heights over the region will slightly warm
temperatures Monday. Vort lobes and weak waves will continue to ride
the ridge, which will keep shower chances on Monday.

Monday Night - Late Next Week...

The messy pattern will continue as a closed upper low forms over the
northern Plains bringing a trough through the Mississippi Valley.
This will push ridging and high pressure to the east of the region.
Southwesterly flow will set up over the region, bringing deep layer
moisture. A surface low pressure will likely develop from this upper
pattern and move north of the region. As this system moves across
the Ohio Valley, it will keep PoPs over the region. Could see some
storms along the cold front of this system, however, instability
seems to be weak.

With multiple rounds and days of showers and some storms, QPF for
the entire week is forecasted to be up to an inch over southern
Indiana, 1.5 inches over northern Kentucky, and up to 3 inches in
southern Kentucky. Locally higher amount will be possible. Ensembles
show an 30% chance of exceeding 3.5 inches in southern Kentucky and
15% chance of exceeding 4 inches. The EFI shows a shift of tails of
1 for Wednesday. QPF will be something to monitor over the coming
forecasts. However, we have had a few days of drying over southern
Kentucky and vegetation is quite greened up by now, which will help
run-off. River ensembles also show the Green River handling the
forecasted QPF well, with only a 30% chance of exceeding minor
flood.

Temperatures should return to near normal in the mid to upper 70s.

The messy upper pattern looks to push out of the region by late next
week and into the weekend, where we should begin to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with sfc high pressure
over the region.  Upper level clouds from a storm system passing to
our southwest will continue today and tonight with a few afternoon
cu making an appearance as well.  Late tonight into Sunday morning
small chances for showers and storms may make it into BWG. However,
feel chances are too small to include beyond 12z tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...AMS