022
FXUS63 KLMK 120535
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
135 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cold front brings a chance of scattered showers and possible
  thunderstorms late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Low
  probability of thunderstorms with little to no severe weather
  expected.

* Warming pattern returns for the end of the week into the weekend
  with temperatures nearing 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Sfc high pressure currently centered over the UP of MI will be the
main influence of our weather through the short term. While we may
have a few scattered mid-level Cu this afternoon, clouds will
dissipate with the setting sun providing clear skies overnight.
Factor in lighter winds with the clear skies and we should see
radiational cooling allowing for lows to fall into the 40s.

Sfc high pressure will work eastward tomorrow shifting sfc winds
more out of the southwest and warming temperatures from the low 70s
today into the upper 70s to near 80 tomorrow. Behind the departing
sfc high, a sfc low associated with a shortwave trough will approach
from the northwest. While we may get a few high clouds to increase
towards the late afternoon, the day will be mostly sunny.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night

Our next chance for possible showers and even a few thunderstorms
arrive late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. A shortwave
trough tracking over the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday
night, will push a sfc low and its associated cold front through the
Ohio Valley. Limited moisture ahead of the boundary will allow for
scattered showers and the chance for some isolated thunderstorms to
form as this system approaches from the northwest. Timing of
showers/storms seems to be a little later than was mentioned in the
previous discussion with timing looking to be closer to daybreak
Wednesday.

Given the timing of this system and looking at model soundings
instability will be limited if non existent. This will limit the
probability of thunderstorms. Currently, the probability of seeing
thunderstorms is around 10 percent with little to no severe weather
expected.

Cold front will be positioned right along the WKY and BG parkways by
Wednesday afternoon. Depending on how well temperatures warm during
the afternoon, there could be some afternoon showers and storms for
the southern half of our CWA Wednesday afternoon into the evening as
the front continues to move to the south. Winds could gust to
between 20-25 mph in the afternoon behind the front with
temperatures a bit cooler in the mid 70s. By Wednesday night, skies
are expected to clear with lows back into the low/mid 40s.

End of Week into the Weekend

High pressure will build in over the region for Thursday and Friday.
This will be mainly dry with temperatures cool on Thursday in the
upper 60s to near 70 but start to warm into the mid/upper 70s to
near 80 by Friday. The warmer Friday temperatures are a result of
ridging developing over the area on Friday then flattening out by
the weekend. As the upper pattern flattens out Friday night, a
shortwave trough will pass to the north across the Great Lakes. PoPs
look to be around 30-40% Friday night into Saturday.

For the rest of the weekend there will be slight chance for showers
and storms and it we continue to see a trend in the models for a
significant warm-up. Highs will warm to near and into the 90s for
the weekend with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions expected. Skies will remain mostly clear today. Winds
will remain very light or calm through the morning hours. Prevailing
SW winds of 5-8 kts develop after 15Z Tue ahead of an area of low
pressure dropping southeast over Wisconsin. This system will drag a
cold front toward the area late tonight into early Wednesday,
resulting in increasing mid-level clouds and precipitation chances.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN/CAL
AVIATION...EBW