054
FXUS63 KLMK 300516
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
116 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dangerously hot and humid weather continues through Wednesday.

* Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening
  convection possible. A few strong storms possible Wednesday.
  Thursday will be the wettest day.

* Cooler temperatures expected to arrive on Thursday and continue
  into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Skies are mostly clear and winds have become calm to light over the
region. These conditions are expected to continue through the
overnight hours. Just adjusted the MinT down a degree. Do believe
temperatures will be quite warm overnight, just think we are
currently on track to cool a bit more than what was forecasted
previously. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Today, we saw heat indices up to 118 within the Extreme Heat
Warning. Seemed to be well placed in location and time. Headlines
remain on track for tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

The story this afternoon, tonight and into tomorrow remains the heat
and oppressively muggy/humid conditions. Excessive Heat Warning along
with the Heat Advisories will continue into Wednesday evening.

Gravity wave associated with a dying MCS coming out of the Plains
this morning help to produce the cloud cover we saw for the first
half of the day. We have even seen a few showers over Casey, Adair
and Russell counties. Most of these clouds have started to clear
allowing for a quick rise in temperatures into the upper 80s and low
90s where dewpoints have been ranging from the mid/upper 70s with
even a few locations like HNB had a 91/81 this afternoon producing a
111 degree heat index. With plenty of daylight hours available and
ample moisture, will keep the Excessive Heat Warning in place for
this afternoon. In fact, with the surrounding offices of PAH and OHX
keeping their Heat Warning in place until tomorrow afternoon,
decided we would follow suit for the follow reasons. Overnight lows
will remain above or within a few degrees of 75 then tomorrow while
the overall ridging starts to break down and flatten over the Ohio
Valley, models are suggesting slightly warmer 850 temperatures of
around 22 degrees C. Models have struggled with the the higher
dewpoints the last couple of days. Considering all of the above,
felt confident enough to extend the Excessive Heat Warning into
tomorrow along with keeping the Heat Advisory in place.

While the heat is the story, there are slight chance of isolated to
scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon, mainly along the I-
75 corridor and into the Lake Cumberland region. These storms will
produce gusty winds and heavy rain but the severe threat looks to be
very low in this area. SPC does have the northern portion of central
KY and southern IN in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) in the Day 2
outlook, but this would be more towards the tail end of the Day 2
and into the Day 3 outlook in my opinion. More on this in the long
term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

The center of the strong Upper ridge that has been in place over much
of the central US and responsible for all the heat will start to
weaken and retrograde westward through the end of the week and into
the weekend. A shortwave trough and associated sfc cold front will
drop southward out of the Midwest and across the Ohio Valley during
the day Thursday into early Friday morning. This will bring some
much needed relief from the high heat but also some showers and
storms as we make the transition from the heat to cooler and drier
weather.

Convective complexes are expected to fire and work along the
boundary over the next couple of days as the cold front drops closer
to the region. Outflows associated with any MCS could work southward
and spark showers and possibly strong thunderstorms late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning across central and southern IN.
This is why SPC has southern IN and north central KY in a Day 2
Marginal Outlook. While we can`t completely rule out the development
of showers and storms Wednesday night into early Thursday morning,
for now I feel our higher chances for activity is after 12z Thursday
and into the afternoon as the front works across the area. Thursday
will feature more widespread showers and thunderstorm activity.
Moisture pooling ahead of the cold front will bring PWAT values over
2.00" which would make for good efficient heavy rain makers, and
shear along and ahead of the boundary would allow for some
organization of convection. Strong to potentially severe storms are
possible during the day Thursday with gusty winds likely the main
threat with the possibility of localized flooding. While it will
remain very muggy Thursday with dewpoints still in the mid/upper
70s, cloud cover and showers will keep temperatures cooler with
highs in the mid/upper 80s across southern IN and along the Ohio
with some low 90s possible further south.


Friday into the weekend will bring much needed break from the heat
and humidity of the past several days. Cold front should be south of
the area to end the week allowing for drying air and lower dewpoints
to filter in behind departing boundary. Highs will be in the low 80s
on Friday along with dewpoints in the mid/upp 60s. This cooler and
drier air will continue into the weekend with dewpoints as low as
the upper 50s to near 60 and highs in the low/mid 80s.

While we will be under the influence of strong sfc high pressure
through the weekend into early next week, we can`t rule out some
shower and storm chances Sunday into early next week. These will be
mainly diurnally driven. By Tuesday, more typical July heat will
return with highs near 90 and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Persistence forecast in this TAF set with VFR conditions expected
through the period. Cigs should remain unrestricted with only
scattered diurnal Cu based at 4-5K feet, but they will be quite flat
with a subsidence inversion reaching down to around 800mb. Light N-
NE winds should remain less than 10 kt through the day and then
decouple after sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ025-028>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ023-
     024-026-027-061-062-070>072.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ076>079-084-
     090>092.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for INZ083-089.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...RAS