825
FXUS63 KLMK 261117
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
717 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat Advisory this afternoon through Sunday evening over all of
  southern Indiana and part of central Kentucky

* Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening
  convection possible.

* Heat and humidity continue into next week, but a cool down is
  expected after mid-week and into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Today, the Lower Ohio Valley remains under an upper ridge with the
upper high centered over the Southeast. At the surface, high
pressure sits to our southeast, resulting in continued light
southwest winds. Precipitable water values are still around 1.75",
but as we head into the afternoon hours, higher deep layer moisture
pushing in from the southwest will push PWATs to near 2" west of
around Interstate 65. We can expect to see a few more isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms as compared to the last couple
of days because as well as being diurnally driven, a wave radiating
northwest from the Southeast high will increase vertical motion over
the region. With little to no shear, the strength of any of today`s
thunderstorms is expected to be limited.

The Heat Advisory continues through Sunday, but as we saw multiple
places reach heat indices of 105 or higher yesterday, today most of
our warmer areas will likely top out closer to 100. This is expected
to be the "cool" day before heat index values begin increasing again
on Sunday and lasting into the middle of next week. Unless something
significant changes, heat produces will likely continue to get
continued into midweek.

Tonight, precipitation will decrease with the loss of diurnal
heating, but a few isolated showers could continue into the
overnight period. Winds will continue out of the southwest as
they ease.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Sunday into Sunday night, the upper high over the Southeast will
expand and cover the eastern two thirds of the southern CONUS,
including much of the Plains. This will push the upper ridge farther
north over much of the country, excluding the Pacific States and
Northeast. This will lead to warmer temperatures and climbing dew
points early next week. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening
convection chances continue through midweek, but overall most people
will see mostly dry days. The heat will continue with highs in the
90s and dew points in the 70s through the middle of next week.

Guidance continues to bounce around with the cold front coming later
in the week. Model agreement is good currently showing a cold
pushing south through the region late Thursday. This would bring
relief in the form of highs in the 80s for some in the CWA on
Thursday and for all by Friday and Saturday. Dew points could return
to the 50s to low 60s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 716 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Today will see an increased likelihood of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, but outside the chance of a downpour
reducing visibilities, conditions are expected to remain VFR through
the period. Southwest winds will increase to around 8-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ023>040-
     045>047-053-054-061>065-070>076.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW