017
FXUS63 KLMK 041847
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Very warm and dry weather continued through Saturday, but still
  with reasonable humidity levels.

* Higher humidity returns on Sunday with rain and thunderstorm
  chances increasing into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The balance of today and Saturday both look like a "rinse and
repeat" from Thursday, as sfc and upper ridging remain in control.
Hot and dry weather will continue with afternoon highs in the
lower/mid 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. These
temps are not dissimilar to the week-long heat wave in late June,
but the humidity is much more manageable with dewpoints in the
lower/mid 60s.

Most areas will be left high and dry over the next 36-48 hrs, though
we can`t rule out a stray late afternoon shower somewhere in the
area. Coverage will be less than 5 percent so will not mention any
precip in the first 4 periods of the forecaast.

Only other significant phenomenon in the short-term will be some
patchy fog later tonight, or smoke in many locations as much of the
vis restrictions will be fireworks smoke trapped under the nocturnal
inversion.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Sfc high pressure continues to retreat to the east and the upper
pattern deamplifies, but the stronger westerlies remain solidly to
our north and keep us in the tropical air mass.

Sunday is somewhat of a transition day as we will still have temps
reaching the mid 90s in quite a few spots, with dewpoints still in
the mid 60s. The increase in moisture and decrease in capping will
open the door for isolated convection to develop.

For most of next week we`ll see scattered to perhaps numerous
showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon. Daily high
temps will run in the lower 90s for most, but it will feel just as
sticky if not more so, given dewpoints creepung up toward 70. PWAT
values get near 2 inches, so storms are in play daily. Plenty of
instability to work with, so pulse storms could put out some gusty
winds in addition to torrential rainfall and lightning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Main challenge in this TAF set is visibility later tonight into
Saturday morning.  Will include MVFR fog at BWG and RGA, of which I
have more confidence in BWG so will carry prevailing MVFR there,
while including it as a TEMPO at RGA.

SDF is a unique problem as vis restrictions due to 4th of July
fireworks smoke are more the rule rather than the exception. In the
absence of something to mix it out, will follow a similar template
to most of the past couple decades and carry MVFR with a TEMPO for
IFR. Looking for a double dip in vis, first in late evening just
after most of the displays and a second dip around daybreak as the
trapping inversion takes over.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...RAS