638
FXUS63 KLMK 120715
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Beautiful Tuesday with a crisp morning, plenty of sunshine, and a
  warmer afternoon. Highs 75-80.

* A cold front will bring scattered showers during the early to mid-
  morning hours of Wednesday. There is a low probability (10%) of
  thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected.

* Warming pattern returns for the end of the week into the weekend
  with near record breaking temperatures.

* Scattered rain showers possible through the weekend and a line of
  showers and thunderstorms possible Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Today...

A dry, cool airmass remains in place over the Ohio Valley early this
morning. Sfc high pressure is analyzed over the Great Lakes. Skies
are clear, and temperatures range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. A
baggy pressure gradient will yield very light winds through the
remainder of the morning.

A compact upper level trough and associated sfc low will rotate
southeast across the Upper Midwest today. Low-level SW flow develops
ahead of this wave as the sfc high shifts across the Mid-Atlantic
coast. By 00Z this evening, the cold front is forecast to run from
Lake Michigan southwest through northern IL/MO and southeastern KS.
Notable low-level thickness increases and SW flow WAA will boost
afternoon highs into the 75-80 degree range. Expect plenty of
sunshine, with southwest winds of 5-10 mph in the afternoon.


Tonight and Wednesday...

Late tonight into Wednesday morning, the mid/upper level trough axis
rotates southeast over the Middle and Upper Ohio Valley. We`ll be
positioned in the left exit region of a 100 kt upper jet streak
streaming in from the northwest, but somewhat stronger forcing will
pass off to our northeast. Low-level moisture return ahead of this
progressive wave is meager, with sfc dewpoints only creeping into
the low to mid 50s along and just ahead of the cold front. The cold
front itself will sink southeast to near the Ohio River by 12Z
Wednesday.

The narrow moisture plume along the cold frontal boundary will be
characterized by max PW values near 1.0 inch. Given the decent lift
provided by the upper level wave and low-level convergence along the
cold front, quick-hitting rain showers appear likely Wednesday
morning. CAMs suggest a couple thin rain bands may push southeast
across southern IN and central KY, mainly between 06-15Z Wednesday.
Instability should be near zero given the timing of the front and
lack of richer low-level moisture. The probability of a thunderstorm
is around 10%.

Some very modest instability (100-250 J/kg SBCAPE) may develop east
of I-75 by early afternoon. Cannot completely rule out an isolated
shower east of I-75 during the afternoon. However, a mostly dry
afternoon is expected with NW flow CAA developing in the wake of the
cold front. After topping out in the low to mid 70s, temperatures
will fall back into the 60s by early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Wednesday Night - Friday

Winds will start to tamper down as the front/rain showers move out
of the area Wednesday evening. Mostly clear skies and light winds
will allow for the minimum temperatures to cool to the mid to upper
40s. As the upper level trough continues to move east, upper ridging
and surface high pressure will build over the region. Clear skies
and dry conditions are expected for Thursday with temperatures in
the low 70s across the area.

Rain chances return Friday with scattered rain showers across the
region due to a shortwave disturbance. A LLJ will move over the Ohio
Valley overnight possibly bringing some gusty winds. Temperatures
Friday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s, and nighttime lows
in the mid 60s.

Saturday - Monday

Lingering rain showers will continue through the day Saturday as
another shortwave ejects NE from the Central Plains. A warming
patterns begins this weekend as a warm air mass moves into the
region. Maximum temperatures Saturday through Monday will likely be
in the mid to upper 80s. Areas west of I-65 have the best chance (60-
70%) of seeing 90 on Sunday, which will come close to records.

A low pressure system will build over the Dakota`s on Sunday and
will move NE into Canada. An associated cold front will stretch
through the region bringing the next chance for rain Monday. A line
of rain showers will move through Monday morning ahead of the cold
front. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible (20-30%) as there is
marginal instability. However, sounding data is showing a strong
capping inversion which would prevent any severe potential. Wind
gusts 20-25 mph will be possible as the cold front pushes through
the area. The timing could possible shift as these rain showers are
dependent on the movement of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions expected. Skies will remain mostly clear today. Winds
will remain very light or calm through the morning hours. Prevailing
SW winds of 5-8 kts develop after 15Z Tue ahead of an area of low
pressure dropping southeast over Wisconsin. This system will drag a
cold front toward the area late tonight into early Wednesday,
resulting in increasing mid-level clouds and precipitation chances.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...EBW