139
FXUS63 KLMK 100800
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
400 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Areal flooding continues to diminish but river flooding will
  continue into the second half of April.

* A few strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon
  and evening.

* Drier conditions are expected for the weekend, with the next
  chance of showers/storms coming Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Currently, an upper trough is dropping southeast through the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley. Beneath the trough is a surface low over
southern Illinois that is expected to cut across Indiana and be over
Ohio around midday. This low is associated with the light rain
showers currently over southern Indiana and central Kentucky, and as
the low moves to the east, so will the showers. It will also cause
winds to begin veering towards the northwest late in the morning.

Temperatures are expected to reach into the 60s to low 70s in a few
warmer locations as southwest WAA early in the day begins lifting
lows this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some midday sun is
also expected for most with the Bowling Green areas seeing the most
sun.

This afternoon/evening, a shortwave will force the upper trough to
dig deeper south through the Tennessee Valley. This will also push a
surface low currently in Minnesota towards western Kentucky which is
expected to bring additional waves of rain showers and thunderstorms
to the region. This will act as a reinforcing cold front and cause
winds over the CWA to veer towards the northwest later tonight. Lows
are expected to drop into the 40s.

As far as severe weather potential goes this evening, model
soundings continue to show steep lapse rates at all levels with 8+
C/km through the mid-levels. MLCAPE values remain over 1,500 J/kg,
but deep layer shear has dropped to half of what it was yesterday.
Now around 25 knots 0-6km. Supercells look less likely, but steep
lapse rates will still make gusty winds and hail possible with any
storms that do develop. Chances for strong storms remain better west
of Interstate 65 as storms will weaken tonight as they move to the
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Friday through Sunday Night...

Upper trough axis will be centered just east of the I-65 corridor at
the beginning of the period.  Friday morning looks to feature cloudy
skies with scattered showers across our eastern sections.  We expect
this activity to move off to the east during the day, but overall
cloudy skies look to prevail.  Highs will be in the low-mid 50s.  A
few upper 50s will be possible across our southwest sections.

Ridging will build into the area Friday night and into Saturday.
This should result in skies clearing out Friday night with the
potential for some patchy frost Saturday morning as temps fall into
the middle 30s.  Dry conditions are expected for Saturday with highs
topping out in the upper 50s to near 60, with overnight lows dipping
back into the mid-upper 30s.  Warmer conditions are expected for
Sunday as we get back into a southerly flow regime.  Look for highs
to warm into the mid-upper 60s, with overnight lows dipping back
into the upper 40s/lower 50s.

Monday through Wednesday...

Moving into next week, a mid-level trough axis and associated cold
front will approach the region by Monday afternoon.  It appears that
a band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany that front as it
comes through.  Model soundings from the GFS indicate the presence
of an elevated mixed layer (EML) with somewhat decent lapse rates,
moisture, and potential instability.  Shear profiles are on the
upper end of the marginal side here with 30-35kts and hodographs are
pretty straight.  So any strong storm looks to be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Temps will be warm ahead
of the front with highs in the lower-middle 70s and overnight lows
in the mid 40s.

Cooler/drier weather is expected for Tuesday with highs in the lower-
middle 60s and overnight lows dipping back into the upper 30s/lower
40s.  Highs on Wednesday may be a tad cooler with readings in the
upper 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Clouds are slowly lowering across the region as light rain showers
continue to fill in from the west. Backed off LLWS and dropped it
from the TAF at BWG and LEX, but kept it at SDF. Lower ceilings will
be most likely for LEX and RGA, possibly as low as fuel alternate
MVFR. Conditions will improve during the day, but there will be a
chance for a second wave of scattered convection later in the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...KDW