279
FXUS63 KLMK 070711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry weather for tomorrow, with a chance for isolated
  showers mainly for south-central Kentucky.

* Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms become more widespread
  on Thursday.

* Warmer and mostly dry for the end of the week into the weekend
  with just a slight chance of showers/storms across south-central
  KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Closed upper low currently over the TX Panhandle will slowly work
eastward today into Thursday. As the system slowly approaches the
Ohio Valley it will gradually increase Gulf moisture over the region
resulting in increased clouds and a gradual increase in rain showers
from south to north Wednesday into Thursday as a series of mid-level
disturbances pinwheel around the upper low. Model soundings continue
to suggest that drier air near the surface will likely slow the
onset of precipitation today into tonight as most of the rain could
initially fall as virga. The highest PoPs (20-30 percent) for today
remains to the south along the KY/TN border. While there isn`t a lot
of instability associated with system, an isolated rumble of thunder
can`t be completely ruled out. Shower chance will slowly increase
from the south and push northward tonight into tomorrow. The upper
low will then get absorbed by a trough dropping out of the Great
Lakes on Thursday as an associated sfc cold front drops southward
and towards southern IN/central Ohio late Thursday into Thursday
night. More widespread showers and storms are possible during the
day Thursday with a little bit more available instability to work
with. Model soundings continue to show a lack of shear which limits
the overall organization of any convection a keeps the threat of
severe storms very low. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be
in the low/mid 70s during the day with lows Wednesday night in the
mid/upper 50s with a few locations near 60 degrees. Total rainfall
looks to be between 0.10-0.20" with locally higher amounts with any
possible passing thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Thursday night into the start of the weekend the upper trough and
associated sfc boundary will push south into the TN Valley and take
most of the precipitation with it. The overall forecast looks
relatively dry but it will depend on just how far south the upper
trough and cold front go on Friday. We could see lingering shower
and isolated thunderstorm chances for Friday into the weekend mainly
across the KY/TN border with shower chances slowly increasing
northward by the end of the weekend. Overall confidence is low for
the weekend forecast as the deterministic models continue to be
divided on their solution. As was the case last night, the GFS wants
to restore the closed upper low over the Gulf Coast quicker and
further north than the ECMWF does for the weekend into early next
week. This keeps more rain around than the drier EURO solution.
Continued to go with the blended model solution for the weekend into
early next week. Rain chances for the weekend continue to  be
between 20 to 30 percent and temperatures warming to near normal in
the upper 70s.

Closed upper low looks to work back into the Ohio Valley by Monday
and Tuesday with rain chances each day and temperatures in the
mid/upper 70s to near 80 through the first half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Flight categories expected to remain VFR for the forecast period.
High clouds ahead of a slowly approaching upper low currently
located of the southern plains will continue to increase over
central KY/southern IN overnight. Sfc high pressure over the region
will keep winds light. While there have been some concern about fog,
the trend in the forecast and the increasing clouds should help to
minimize that threat. Not going to rule out some brief and isolated
periods of fog/low VIS but overall confidence remains low. As a few
mid-level disturbances pinwheel around the upper low, along with the
increased moisture from the south, a few showers are possible around
BWG in the afternoon while the rest of the terminal sites should
remain dry.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN