265
FXUS63 KLMK 101951
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
351 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Shower and storm chances increase again early next week as cold
  front approaches the region. Severe weather chances are unlikely.

* Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected all
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

An upper ridge sits over the Upper Plains and northern Midwest
with upper ridging over the West and East Coasts. The Lower Ohio
Valley remains under the western side of the East Coast ridge with
surface high pressure still parked to our east, off the Atlantic
Coast, and low pressure to our west. This continues to keep our
winds light and generally out of the south, but with some
variability. Scattered cumulus is currently covering the CWA.
Isolated showers are again expected this afternoon and evening, but
the mid-level subsidence is expected to keep these showers in check
with limited growth.

Tonight, expect nearly the same conditions as the last few nights.
Cumulus will dissipate early as winds ease to near calm.
Temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to low 70s. Some patchy fog
is possible, mainly in southern Indiana and the Lake Cumberland
area.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge will continue to slowly move eastward. The
surface high to our east helps to bring more moisture into the CWA.
Dew points climb into the upper 60s to low 70s as precipitable water
values begin climbing ahead of the cold front to our northwest and
ahead of the surge from the south, leaving PWATs around 1.25-1.5"
across the CWA. Isolated pulse convection is likely to continue over
the CWA, but there will likely be increased chances that work north
out of Tennessee. The mid-level subsidence will still help to limit
development. Mostly sunny skies between diurnal cumulus will lead to
highs in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Southern Indiana and central Kentucky will find itself trapped in
the middle of an approaching upper trough/cold front from the
northwest and surging moisture from the south. Most of the moisture
can be seen flowing north as PWATs increase to 1.8-2.25" over much
of central Kentucky much of Tuesday and Wednesday. There will also
be some pooling of moisture ahead of the front across Indiana.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase with the added
moisture and with the upper ridge departing the region, the
subsidence will begin to weaken, allowing taller storms to develop.
We still lack much in the way of shear, so the severe threat remains
limited. The high PWATs could lead to flooding concerns with
efficient rainfall.

By Thursday, the cold front is expected to drop into the CWA as it
flattens before rocking to the east and allowing moisture to build
back farther north into Indiana on Friday. Southern Kentucky will
see PWATs near 2" during this time with the highest values to the
west. As with typical summer time convection, expect a diurnal
enhancement with showers and thunderstorms being isolated to
scattered in nature. Temperatures remain consistent with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

By the weekend the front pushes off to the north, but the surface
high over the Southeast fueling the region with moisture remains in
place, keeping daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
chances in place. The best chances will remain over southern and
eastern Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds are a
little variable with scattered cumulus expected through the evening
hours. Some isolated showers are expected this afternoon and
evening. Tonight, skies clear as winds ease to near calm.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW