121
FXUS63 KLMK 051044
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and dry today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.

* Higher humidity returns on Sunday with rain and thunderstorm
  chances increasing into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Another hot, dry day is in store for central KY and southern IN. Mid
and upper level ridging continues to expand northeast over the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes. Sfc high pressure will continue to slide
eastward over the Mid-Atlantic, while Tropical Depression Three
slowly rotates north off the coast of GA and SC. Light southerly
flow develops today, though low-level moisture advection into the
region will remain weak this weekend. Suppose a rogue shower or two
could develop during the mid to late afternoon hours, but coverage
will remain less than 10 percent. Will stick with the dry forecast,
with just scattered afternoon cumulus. Temperatures will top out in
the low to mid 90s. With sfc dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, heat
indices will be mostly in the 90s. Peak afternoon heat indices will
be 95-100. The experimental HeatRisk tool suggests a Moderate risk
of heat-related impacts, especially for heat sensitive groups
without adequate cooling/hydration.

A wave of low pressure will move from the Upper Midwest to Great
Lakes tonight, with a trailing cold front still well off to the
northwest. Tonight looks dry and warm, with lows in the upper 60s
and lower 70s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A weak upper level shortwave trough and sfc low will move over the
Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday, weakening the upper level ridge
in the region. Though the synoptic sfc front will remain to our
northwest, increased low-level moisture and reduced capping support
the idea of isolated showers and storms Sunday afternoon and
evening. It won`t be enough to prevent temps from topping out in the
low to mid 90s once again, with heat index values briefly topping
out near 100.

The stalling front will wash out over the Ohio Valley early next
week. A moist, humid airmass and weakly forced environment will
likely provide us multiple days of scattered showers and storms.
Convective activity will peak in coverage and intensity during the
afternoon and evening hours. Weak upper level troughing lingers over
the eastern US for much of next week, though some amplification of a
western US ridge and eastern US trough looks likely Wednesday into
Thursday. Overall, a fairly typical Mid-Summer pattern with warm,
humid air and daily scattered storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

MVFR visibility continues at multiple sites early this morning due
to lingering firework smoke/haze and now fog. Visibility will
improve through the mid-morning hours as the nocturnal inversion
gradually mixes out. Sfc winds will veer S and then SSW this
afternoon, while increasing to 5-7 kts. SCT cumulus near 5-6 kft is
expected this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW