699
FXUS65 KLKN 240923
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
223 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms through the middle of next week

* Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to
  heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently
  burned areas

* Cooling trend continues today as mid-level moisture and
  increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

One more afternoon and evening of unrestricted monsoonal flow
will continue to bring shower and thunderstorm chances for the
Silver State, but High pressure shifting west from the plains
looks to first limit, then cutoff moisture flow. Monday afternoon
and evening there will again be a 20% to 50% chance of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, but these chances drop to
10% to 20% Tuesday, then rise a bit to 10% to 30% Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Storm chances look to drop below 10%
Thursday into the weekend, the main reason will be the subtropical
high pressure ridge now over the southern plains builds west into
Arizona. Storm modes through Monday still favor more wet storm
modes, but there will still be a chance for a few dry
thunderstorms, both as storm motion increases due to increasing
southwesterly flow and from mid level moisture decreasing. Tuesday
and Wednesday chances for dry thunder will increase, but storm
coverage will shift east as drier air returns from the west.
Common hazards for storms will include gusty outflow winds up to
50 MPH, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall.
Thursday through Monday, models may have finally settled on a
pattern change. Both the GFS and ECMWF still show that the upper
ridge will try and work its way back west, shifting the upper flow
back to a WSW direction as it does so. What is interesting is
models are now showing that the ridge will stay farther south over
the US/Mex border allowing for a longwave trough to set up
offshore of the Pacific northwest. This will bring a more westerly
mid and upper level flow, which would be dry, but it would also
be cooler given the lower forecast heights. Still this is a just a
recent agreement from the models, so overall confidence remains
mixed for the extended until this consensus holds firm.
Temperatures even with the pattern change look to hold in the low
80s to low 90s, with overnight lows ranging into the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Winds will be breezy through the weekend and into the new
week as winds shift more south to southwest in line with the
upper level flow pattern at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up
to 30 MPH possible. Winds look to shift back to the west to SW
Thursday through the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada through Monday.

There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30 % chance for a mix of
isolated dry and wet thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is high confidence in dry conditions returning to the Great
Basin Thursday trough Sunday of next week.

There is low-moderate confidence in the upper pattern Thursday
through Monday as models now seem to agree on keeping NV under WSW
flow between as upper level ridge over Arizona, and a trough off
the Pacific NW.


&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through
Monday evening. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5KT
to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. VCTS will
be possible during afternoon and evening hours for KBAM, KEKO,
KELY, and KENV as monsoonal flow keeps a 20% to 50% chance for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Although not
likely, a stray VCTS will be possible for KTPH, and KWMC, chances
will be near 10% Monday afternoon.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

One last day of unrestricted monsoonal moisture will keep a 20% to
50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for
central and northern Nevada Monday afternoon and evening. Hazards
from storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, Ground
lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. High Pressure ridge
to the east will begin to impinge on moisture flow by Tuesday and
Wednesday dropping storm coverage to isolated and storm chances to
10% to 30% for a mix of wet or dry thunderstorms. High Pressure
looks to cut off monsoon flow fully by Thursday bringing drier
conditions that will last through Monday of next week. Winds will
be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 MPH possible, after Thursday winds shift to west to southwest
with similar speeds through the weekend.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98