374
FXUS65 KLKN 280858
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
158 AM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 156 AM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

* Warming trend today through Monday

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of
  Northern Nevada Monday afternoon

* Isolated thunderstorms each afternoon Tuesday through next
  Friday next week

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday) Issued at 156 AM PDT Sat Jun 28
2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Surface high pressure remains dominant across the Great Basin and
Desert Southwest into early next week before a weak closed low
moves onshore Wednesday and slowly drifts eastward into the Great
Basin into the latter half of next week. This will bring a slight
uptick and available moisture with precipitable water values
100-130% normal for this time of year. This will result in
afternoon thunderstorm chances of 5 to 10%, with greatest chances
(10-20%) across the Jarbidge Mountains Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday. Chances increase across areas north of I-80 by next
Thursday as the closed low opens up into the parent flow Thursday
and Friday with a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across far
northern Humboldt and Elko Counties.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
upcoming week, with Monday and Tuesday being the warmest days with
high temperatures nearly 10 degrees above normal. No record highs
are forecast, however. Expanding Moderate HeatRisk Sunday into
Monday will result in increased heat effects to those sensitive to
heat or without effective cooling. Stay hydrated and limit
outdoor activities to the morning or evening, if possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence in above normal temperatures and Moderate
HeatRisk into Sunday and Monday. Low confidence in coverage and
intensity of isolated thunderstorms into next week, especially
south of I-80. By Wednesday and Thursday next week, around 25% of
the long range ensemble members bring measurable precipitation
from thunderstorms to Elko and Battle Mountain.


&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours.
Afternoon breezes will be present though winds will not be as
strong as yesterday. Gusts 18KT to 20KT are expected. Winds ease
again this evening. Upper level ridging continues, bringing drier
and warmer conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are
expected but critical thresholds are not expected to be reached,
as min RH values continue to drop below 15% while sustained winds
remain at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Some small chances
for isolated/dry thunderstorms persist for next week, mainly well
north of I-80.AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS
sensor at the ASOS.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Upper level ridging continues, bringing drier and warmer
conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected but
critical thresholds are not expected to be reached, as min RH
values continue to drop below 15% while sustained winds remain at
15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Some small chances for
isolated/dry thunderstorms persist for next week, mainly well
north of I-80.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None. &&

$$

DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...94