518
FXUS65 KLKN 132104
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 PM PDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level troughing over the Great Basin will
maintain unsettled weather through tonight, and, through Wednesday
for far northeastern Nevada with scattered showers and mountain
snow showers. High pressure will build across the region for drier
conditions on Thursday and most of Friday. The next frontal system
will move across the West Friday night through Sunday with
additional showers and mountain snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night

Upper level trough axis is currently moving directly overhead,
with steep mid-level lapse rates fostering the numerous scattered
showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms. A 30% chance for
thunderstorms, mostly north of US 50 through the evening,
gradually tapering off through the overnight. Expect snow showers
to mix in with lingering showers, especially above 6500 feet, with
a dusting of snow. Expect a few inches of snow in the Ruby
Mountains, East Humboldt Range, and Jarbidge Mountains (40%
chance for at least 4 inches of snow through Wednesday morning).
No impactful accumulations are expected on area roadways. Lows
tonight will be slightly cooler in the low to mid 30s.

Expect a few scattered showers once again Wednesday afternoon as
the upper low slowly slides eastward and a weak shortwave impulse
pivots southward on the backside of the trough. Coverage will be
lesser and confined to mostly Elko County (50 to 70% chance for
showers), however. Highs slightly warmer in the upper 50s to low
60s further west into the valleys of Humboldt and Nye Counties.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday

Dry to start the long term, with high temperatures in the 60s for
Thursday. A shortwave disturbance passes through the area on
Friday, but the only noticeable impact will be showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms in Elko county. The rest of the forecast
area will remain dry, and temperatures for the entire forecast
area look very similar to Thursday. Our next weather system enters
the picture on Saturday as a new upper level trough enters Nevada.
Showers begin very early in the morning, covering the entire area
by noon. Thunderstorms and convective showers mix in for the
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be slightly cooler
Saturday, with high temperatures in the low 60s. The trough axis
passes over the area overnight, beginning to travel to the east on
Sunday. Showers slowly begin to clear out from west to east and
temperatures will be much cooler, with highs only reaching the 40s
and 50s. By nightfall showers will still linger in Elko and
eastern White Pine counties, but conditions will have dried out
everywhere else. Those showers continue all the way through Monday
evening, as the trough takes its time traveling east, but dry
conditions endure for the rest of the forecast area. Temperatures
also begin to rebound, with high temperatures in the 50s. The
warming trend and dry conditions continue for Tuesday, with high
temperatures back in the 60s and 70s. Looking beyond the long
term, extended range models indicate the active pattern isnt
finished yet and may continue as early as Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through 03Z. Mostly
VFR conditions with CIGs briefly approaching MVFR levels in
showers and thunderstorms. Activity is expected to wane through
the overnight hours, with additional scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at KEKO Wednesday. Winds primarily from the
northwest 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt, though stronger in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms (a 30% chance for
thunder) across most of the area today. Showers reform over Elko
County Wednesday for Zones 438, 469, and 470 with a 15% chance
for thunderstorms. Breezy northwesterly winds from 10 to 15 mph
and gusts from 20 to 25 mph across most of the area and again
Wednesday afternoon across the aforementioned zones. Drier
conditions arrive Thursday and Friday as high pressure traverses
the area. More unsettled conditions with low chances for
thunderstorms this weekend as the next frontal system moves across
much of the West.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

84/94/84/84