Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
192 FXUS65 KLKN 222150 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 250 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A warming trend is expected through the weekend and into next week. * Mostly dry weather for the next several days. * A 15-25% chance of showers and a 15% chance for thunderstorms along the ID/NV border Friday afternoon and evening. * A 15-25% chance of showers and 10-15% chance for thunderstorms across portions of eastern Nevada Saturday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Satellite this afternoon is showing mainly sunny skies at this time with a few mid-clouds over far northern Nevada, along the border with Idaho. No precipitation is noted on radar at this time. Look for mainly clear conditions tonight with lows in the 40s. All models have been consistent in showing a shortwave trough in the mid to upper levels for Friday. This feature is expected to bring a fifteen to twenty-five percent chance for showers and roughly a fifteen percent chance for thunderstorms well north of I-80and along the border with Idaho. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected. Winds will be breezy with speeds of about 20 to 25 mph. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Clearing and rather mild conditions expected for Friday night with lows in the 40s and 50s. Warming trend continues to build over the weekend and into next week with temperatures well above into the 80s and 90s. An off-cut low pressure system over the Great Basin area brings in some moisture Saturday, however there is very low confidence that it will bring in precipitable moisture. Only chance for light amount of rain will be over White Pine County with a less than 20% chance. Sunday, the upper level trough will dissipate with strong upper ridging moving over the state, keeping weather activity dry and sunny throughout much of central and northern Nevada, however active weather across northwestern U.S. could bring in some isolated thunderstorms along the northern state border with chances for activity remaining below 20% across the week. The dry dominant warming trend (with small chance of thunderstorms along the northern state border) is expected to last throughout the week. Breezy southerly/southwesterly winds in the afternoon Monday and Tuesday at 10-15 mph, then shifting to a more westerly direction Wednesday afternoon at 10-15 mph. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM has been fairly consistent with the strength and timing of the next upper level feature for Friday and Saturday, along with the warming temperatures through the weekend. No changes were made to the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Zonal flow pattern over the state will aid in increasing winds over all terminals from a westerly direction and shifting from a northerly direction this afternoon with speeds up to 15-20 kts, gusts 25-30kts. Late afternoon to evening winds are expected to dissipate below 10 kts except at KTPH staying breezy above 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level wave traversing the area Friday will bring isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the far northern sections of fire zones 437, 438, 469 and 470. Not much in the way of rainfall is expected and areal coverage is expected to be limited to locales north of I-80. Another round of isolated activity is possible in central Nevada Saturday with little to no accumulations expected. Afternoon high temperatures will be increasing to above normal conditions by Sunday with mid to upper 80s by early next week. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...86