463
FXUS65 KLKN 120842
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
142 AM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 133 AM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025

* Very warm daytime temperatures are likely through Wednesday.

* Elevated fire weather conditions continue due to warm temperatures,
  light to breezy winds and low afternoon surface humidity
  levels.

* Mid-level moisture may bring isolated dry thunderstorms for
  Wednesday afternoon and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms
  Thursday and beyond across portions of central and eastern
  Nevada.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure will slowly slide east
during the week, however Tuesday and Wednesday look to be very
warm with temperatures reaching into the mid 90s to mid 100s, and
overnight lows may not cool enough to allow for adequate recovery
from daytime heat stresses as temperatures range in the low 60s to
mid 70s. A Heat Advisory which was issued for Tuesday afternoon,
has now been extended for Elko, N Eureka, Humboldt, N Lander, and
N Nye counties until 1 AM PDT Thursday. Elevated fire weather
conditions will also be continuing Tuesday thanks to the warm
temperatures and low afternoon humidity. Wednesday a subtle upper
trough will move into the Silver state from central California.
This trough though weak, will be strong enough to focus mid level
moisture to generate a low 10% to 20% for isolated mainly dry
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, and a higher 20% to 40% chance
for a isolated to scattered mix of wet and dry thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon across portions of central and northern NV.
This trough will then likely sit over Nevada as the upper flow
stalls over much of the southern and central US. This will keep a
10% to 30% day to day isolated storm chances over the eastern half
of Nevada through the weekend. However storm modes after Thursday
favor a higher probability of dry thunderstorms as mid level
moisture remains meager. This pattern of west coast troughing and
upper level ridging over the central US look to persist through at
least the middle of next week keeping Nevada under southerly flow
aloft. Temperatures after Thursday look to slowly cool through
the week thanks to the upper ridge shifting east and storm
chances. Highs look to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s across
Nevada through Next Wednesday. For overnight lows look for
temperatures each night to keep to a similar range, falling into
the mid 50s to upper 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in the continuation of very warm
temperatures through Thursday morning across the Great Basin.

There is moderate confidence n the development of a low 10% to
20% chance for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms across portions
of central and northern Nevada Wednesday afternoon. There is
moderate confidence in the development of a low 20% to 40% chance
of an isolated to scattered mix of dry and wet thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon for portions of central and northern NV.

There is High confidence of elevated fire weather conditions,
with warm temperatures and low afternoon surface humidity levels,
across central and northern Nevada for the forecast period.

There is moderate confidence for the development of a low 10% to
30% chances for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms across eastern
NV Friday, Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions forecast to persist through Wednesday morning for
all terminals. Winds will be light during the overnight, picking
up out of the west at 5KT to 15KT with a few gusts up to 25KT
possible during the afternoon.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Look for high pressure to continue across the
southwestern United States today with no precipitation or dry
thunderstorm activity in the forecast. Winds will be out of the
west and northwest with gusts to 20 mph. By Wednesday, mid-level
moisture is expected to increase over portions of central and
eastern Nevada. This will bring an increase to dry thunderstorm
activity over all fire zones except for fire weather zone 437.
Expect storms to be a mix of wet and dry later in the afternoon
and evening. Winds will be out of the west on Wednesday with
sustained wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. Given
the hit and dry sub-cloud layer, outflow winds of 45 mph are
possible with any storm. Additional convective activity will
continue into Thursday and Friday over portions of the central and
east parts of the district (40-50% Thursday, 25-35% Friday). Some
slight cooling will take place as highs will be in the upper 80s
to mid 90s with general winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 25
mph. Convective activity will again promote outflow winds to 45
mph from any storm. Thunderstorm activity will continue Saturday
(20-30%) mainly across east-central Nevada.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM PDT Thursday
NVZ030-031-033-036-038>041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...86