315
FXUS65 KLKN 051941
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 * There is a 15-25% probability of thunderstorms in Northeastern
   Nye and Southeastern White Pine Counties today and Friday

 * Warming trend Friday through Monday

 * Near record heat in Winnemucca Sunday afternoon

 * Precipitation chances increase across Northern Nevada early
   next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will move
southward into Central Nevada this afternoon. An upper-level area
of low pressure will develop in the base of this trough near the
Central California coast tonight. The cyclone aloft will
retrograde westward Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build
northward across Southern Nevada Friday night. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected in Northeastern Nye and Southeastern
White Pine Counties each afternoon and evening today and Friday. A
few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary
thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous
cloud to ground lightning strikes. High temperatures throughout
Northern and Central Nevada Friday afternoon will be two to four
degrees warmer than this afternoon. Here are probabilities of
maximum temperatures of 85 degrees or higher for select locations
in Northern and Central Nevada on Friday, June 6th, 2025:

Winnemucca - 96%
Battle Mountain - 80%
Tonopah - 75%
Elko - 60%
Carlin - 60%
West Wendover - 45%
McDermitt - 45%
Eureka - 30%

Dry conditions with warming temperatures continue over the weekend
and into next week. PW values will still be elevated in these dry
conditions with mid-level moisture ranging from 0.3-0.5 inches,
however, a dry northwesterly flow will hinder any thunderstorm
development in northern Nevada. For central Nevada, the dry air
will also aid in hindering thunderstorm development, but models
show a 10-15% chance for the southern portions of N. Nye and White
Pine Counties. Little to no precipitation is expected, so any
thunderstorms developing will result in dry thunderstorms.

Monday, the northwesterly flow is expected to weaken as upper
ridging strengthens. Dry conditions are expected to be the
dominant weather under the high pressure, yet there is still up to
a 15% chance for thunderstorm development as PW values remain
around 0.4-0.6 inches across eastern and northern Nevada. Any
convection developing is expected to be dry.

Tuesday and Wednesday, models are showing better agreement that
the upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken, turning into
more of a zonal flow pattern. This zonal flow will help bring in
cooler temperatures, dropping them back to near normal in the
upper 70s to 80s by the end of the week. Thunderstorm development
will be slightly more favorable, but stay across northern Nevada
along the state border each day. Winds expected to elevate each
afternoon from the west at 10-15 mph.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Largest source of uncertainty
is areal coverage and development of thunderstorms both this
afternoon and Friday afternoon. The greatest source of atmospheric
instability and moisture could remain south of the forecast area,
thereby limiting thunderstorm formation. No deviations from the
NBM output.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour
period. A weak disturbance moves across the region with increasing
cloud cover over the terminals (FL100 to FL250). 10-20% chance
for thunderstorms developing this afternoon in central Nevada.
VCTS will not be in the TAFs for KTPH and KELY as thunderstorms
are not expected to develop near the terminals but be further
south. Winds from the north/northwest at 10-15 kts, with gusts up
to 20 kts at KTPH, however variable winds with gusts up to 35 kts
are possible from nearby thunderstorms. Light winds below 10 kts
at all other terminals with northerly winds increasing up to 10-15
kts, gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon.

AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few strong thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening
today and Friday in portions of Central Nevada. The primary
thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph and
dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A warming trend is
anticipated Friday through Monday. By Monday afternoon, high
temperatures will be twelve to fourteen degrees above normal for
this time of year. Precipitation chances increase across Northern
Nevada early next week.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87/97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...87