Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
016 FXUS65 KLKN 230725 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1225 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025 * Heat Advisory for Northern Nevada today * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in Northern Nevada today * Wetting thunderstorms likely in much of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening Sunday through Wednesday * Marginal risk of excessive rainfall in most of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday through Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will remain parked over the Four Corners region of the United States today. This cyclone aloft will slides southward into the Desert Southwest Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will extend northward across the Great Basin Monday through Wednesday. An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will move eastward into California Thursday. This trough of low pressure will dissipate over the Silver State Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Northern and Central Nevada from 11 AM PDT this morning until 8 PM PDT this evening. Near record heat is expected in Elko this afternoon. The current record for maximum temperature measured in Elko on August 23rd is 100 degrees, initially established in 1919 and last recorded in 1967. Temperature records in Elko date back to 1888. An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is anticipated in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lighting strikes. Monsoonal moisture will surge northward into most of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday through Wednesday, resulting in the likelihood of wetting thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall may result in minor flooding of recent burn scars, streams, creeks, and low-lying areas. The heaviest rainfall should remain west of Humboldt County. A cooling trend trend is expected Sunday through Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be around five degrees below seasonal values. Temperatures will moderate and rain chances will decrease Thursday and Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding the Heat Advisory for Northern Nevada today. High forecast confidence in a moderate risk for heat-related illness in Northern Nevada today. High forecast confidence regarding wetting thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Sunday through Wednesday. Moderate forecast confidence in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for most of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday through Wednesday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, and KTPH this afternoon into this evening. MVFR or lower conditions are conceivable at KTPH tonight as monsoonal moisture begins to surge northward into Central Nevada. MVFR or lower conditions are likely at all terminal locations Sunday afternoon due to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is anticipated in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lighting strikes. Monsoonal moisture will surge northward into much of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday through Wednesday, resulting in the likelihood of wetting thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall may result in minor flooding of recent burn scars. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday NVZ030-031-033-036-038-039. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...87