Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
833 FXUS65 KLKN 042028 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 128 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025 * Red Flag Warning through this evening for White Pine and NE Nye Counties. * Isolated wet and dry thunderstorms through this afternoon with lighting and gusty winds. * Warming Trend starts Saturday as high pressure returns. * High temperatures for the start of next week will be in the 90s to 100s while overnight lows will dip into the 50s and 60s. * Upper trough passing through the Pacific NW to bring in slightly cooler temperatures for northern NV Wednesday and Thursday, but heat returns Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 124 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Today looks to be the last day for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as upper level trough departs for the northern plains. Upper level ridge will build in over the southwest as the low departs bringing a return of dry conditions with warming temperatures, beginning Saturday and lasting through Tuesday. Although convective build ups will continue through the weekend, showers are not expected as mid and upper level moisture will be decreasing each day. Temperatures will begin to warm Saturday as highs warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s, with high reaching the low 90s to low 100s Tuesday afternoon. Lows will range in the low 50s to low 60s for most through the first half of the work week. Models show a northern stream upper trough try to dig south along the California coast Tuesday afternoon, this trough wont make it as far south as last week though as the upper ridge builds SW across southern California forcing the upper trough to lift into the Snake river valley and into Montana Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring a cool front through northern Nevada, but with no moisture to work with, this front will only cool temperatures back into the mid 80s to mid 90s for those two days. As that upper trough departs the upper ridge and thus the heat return for Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the possibility for the development of isolated to scattered coverage of a 10% to 30% chance of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon, however with drier air filtering in behind the departing upper trough, storm chances drop this evening. There is high confidence critical fire weather conditions over east-central Nevada with a moderate confidence of near critical fire weather conditions over portions of Humboldt, and western Elko Counties this afternoon and evening. There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building back in over the the Great Basin for the weekend and into the first half of next week leading to warmer temperatures and drier conditions. The main deviation from the previous forecast was to increase POPs over northern and east-central Nevada to better capture the current thunderstorm development trends this morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions over the next 24 hour period. VCTS expected over the eastern terminals KEKO, KELY, and KENV, dissipating overnight. Strong winds from convective outflow up to 40 kts are possible. Breezy winds up to 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts with stronger winds up to 30 kts at KELY. && .FIRE WEATHER... Mix of wet and dry thunderstorms this afternoon mainly over northern and eastern zones, dissipating during the evening hours. Critical fire weather remains over zone 425 due to low RH and strong winds. Elevated Conditions expected everywhere else with low RH and wind gusts up to 25 mph. Look for dry weather to return over the weekend and into next week with rising temperatures. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ425. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...97