356
FXUS65 KLKN 010831
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
131 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 127 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

* Active pattern continues for northern and western Nevada.

* Low chances for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms for far NE
  Humboldt, and northern Elko counties for Friday and Saturday.

* Breezy winds and low relative humidity will keep elevated fire
  weather conditions for central Nevada through the weekend.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)

Upper pattern beginning to show signs movement, but storm chances
look to continue for two more days across northern Nevada. Friday
into Saturday, the upper trough and moisture axis shifts into
Idaho, however the trough will still be close enough to support
storm chances for northern Nevada during the afternoon. Overall
coverage and probability will be lower than it has with chances in
the 10% to 30% range, with the best chances for storms occurring
are across northern Elko, and far NE Humboldt Counties. Another
factor will be mid level moisture, with the trough axis shifting
north, moisture will also be on a downward trend meaning any
storms that do form will have a greater probability of being dry,
with the main hazards of gusty outflow winds and lightning
strikes. The good news is that outside of storms, winds will be
near critical levels, keeping fire weather concerns in the
elevated through the first half of the weekend. Sunday still looks
that it will be a day of transition, as the upper pattern finally
breaks. The upper ridge is forecast to split, with the southern
piece shifting SW over Arizona, While the northern stream ridge
will move east into Ontario, Canada. This will allow westerly flow
to resume over the northern US, with a new upper trough digging
into northern California Monday and Tuesday of next week. Models
are still uncertainty in location, and strength of this feature,
as the latest runs keep any storm chances north of our area across
Oregon and the Snake river valley. So have opted to keep storm
chances below 10% at this time. Models agreement fully breaks down
for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, as the GFS favors
another week trough clipping northern NV, while the EC shows
strong upper level ridging developing over the great basin through
the end of next week. Temperatures for the period look to be well
constrained thanks to afternoon convective build-ups, and a few
storms keeping daytime highs in check. Highs look to range from
the upper 80s to upper 90s across Nevada with day to day variation
depending on cloud development. For overnight lows look for
temperatures each night to fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in a low 10% to 30% chance for isolated,
mostly dry thunderstorms across far NE Humboldt, and northern
Elko Counties for Friday and Saturday afternoons, although exact
coverage of storms remains uncertain.

There is moderate confidence of elevated fire weather conditions,
with breezy winds and low afternoon surface humidity levels,
across central and northern Nevada for the forecast period.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions forecast to persist through Saturday for all
terminals, light to breezy variable winds of 5KT to 15KT with
gusts to 25KT during the afternoon hours. Low 10% to 30% chance
for VCTS for KBAM, KEKO, and perhaps KENV for Friday afternoon.
KELY and KTPH will see breezy SW winds of 10KT to 15KT with a few
gusts up to 30KT possible, as well as some convective build-up
during the afternoons, but will remain dry.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions persist across central Nevada
today, with south to west wind gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph and
minimum relative humidity values near or below 15%.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to retreat northward this
afternoon and evening, becoming confined to zones 437, 438, and
the northern portions of zones 424, 469, 470. Isolated dry
thunderstorms are anticipated in these areas.

On Saturday, storm coverage is expected to shift slightly east,
with isolated dry thunderstorms primarily focused in and around
Elko County. By Sunday, widespread thunderstorm development is not
expected, as more favorable moisture profiles shift north of the
Nevada state line.

Some uncertainty remains for Monday, as a trough and associated
cold front may impact the forecast area.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None. &&

$$

DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...90