006
FXUS65 KLKN 160843
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
143 AM PDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 130 AM PDT Sat Aug 16 2025

* Elevated fire weather conditions will persist due to warm
  temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and low humidity.

* Isolated dry thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening in
  northern and eastern Nevada.

* A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms mainly along the northern NV
  border Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Current satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area. A slight cooling trend is expected to persist
through the weekend as a trough of low pressure is situated over
the Pacific Northwest while high pressure strengthens over the
southern U.S. Highs will reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s
with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will be
breezy out of the south-southwest with gusts up to 25 mph.

Meanwhile, weak to moderate instability with CAPE values of
100-200 J/kg and sufficient moisture will support a 10-30% chance
of isolated dry thunderstorms in northern Elko, northern Humboldt,
and eastern White Pine Counties this afternoon and evening. Cloud
bases are expected to be at or above 10K ft AGL.

The next chance of dry thunderstorms (10-20%) will be primarily
focused along the northern Nevada border Sunday afternoon and
evening. The main hazards associated with any thunderstorm
development include gusty outflow winds near 40 mph and frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning.

Warm and dry conditions are expected to return Monday through
Wednesday as high pressure gradually retrogrades over the western
U.S. By Thursday, some monsoonal moisture may begin to creep
underneath the ridge, bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is moderate confidence in the development of isolated dry
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Saturday through Sunday.
The NBM appears to be struggling with the aerial extent and
coverage, so weather grids have been adjusted based on recent
model trends and high resolution guidance.

Forecast confidence remains low regarding the timing, extent of
moisture, and instability for the development of afternoon
thunderstorms late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are forecast for at all terminals today. Westerly
afternoon winds for northern terminals KWMC, KBAM, KEKO of 5KT to
15KT with gusts up to 25KT. Central Nevada will see more
southwesterly winds with KTPH, KELY, and KENV at speeds of 10KT to
20KT with a few gusts up to 30KT possible. There will be a 10% to
30% chance for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon for eastern Nevada which may impact KELY and KENV.
Hazard from thunderstorms will include strong erratic outflow
winds, short term reductions in flight conditions due to localized
blowing dust, and lightning strikes. KWMC, KTPH, KEKO and KBAM
again look to remain dry.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly flow on Saturday will increase to create fire weather
criteria for zones 425/426/427 where sustained winds of 10-15 mph
will be punctuated by gusts ranging 25-28 mph through early
evening. Moisture gets shunted further east Saturday though
eastern NV zones 425/438/469/470 have isolated dry thunderstorms
in the forecast for early Saturday afternoon. Current CAM models
show some thunderstorm development over extreme eastern portions
of 437 and 424 later in the afternoon though strength of these
storms looks remarkably weaker than what has been observed in the
late week. Dry lightning will still be an impact through the
afternoon for affected zones. Sunday a weak system will initiate a
mix of wet and dry thunderstorms mainly along the northern NV
border for zones 437/438/469/470. Similar fire weather conditions
over 425/426/427 exist again on Sunday in the form of strong
southerly winds and low afternoon RH values.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...99