Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
083 FXUS65 KLKN 192005 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 105 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for generally fair weather and gradually warming temperatures through the period. Highs will be in the 60s through Tuesday with 60s and 70s by mid-week. Winds will be light with some afternoon breezes possible. Overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. High cirrus clouds can be seen moving from north to south on this afternoon`s satellite loop. Winds are breezy across central Nevada with light winds found in the north. The main features in the area include a closed upper low spinning in central Arizona and upper ridging in the western United States. All models are showing dry and quiet conditions for the short term with high temperatures warming into the 60s for Sunday afternoon with overnight lows tonight and Sunday night reaching the 20s and 30s. .LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday night A stagnant and dry weather pattern is expected next week as upper-level ridging pattern slowly strengthens through midweek. Temperatures primarily in the 60s for highs on Monday will gradually warm into the lower to mid 70s in most valleys Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast certainty in temperatures is high for Monday and Tuesday based on a tight clustering of ensemble members from the GEFS and EPS with only up to a 5 degree spread between the 10th and the 90th percentile temperatures across the area. A southwest breeze develops each afternoon across the area generally around 10 mph. Uncertainty overall increases Wednesday onward with GEFS members showing an advancing trough towards the U.S. West Coast with a more zonal flow indicated within the EPS members. Either scenario is dry though so impact on sensible weather will be negligible. Another trough approaches the region Friday and Saturday resulting in cooling temperatures overall and potentially bringing some shower activity into far northwestern Nevada although only a few members of the EPS show any appreciable rain amounts of a around a tenth of an inch for Winnemucca. So overall, dry conditions with warmer than normal temperatures and relatively light winds are expected next week with increasing cloud cover and some chances for showers in northwest Nevada Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected through SUnday. Winds will diminish further tonight across central Nevada at KTPH and KELY as a low pressure system moves farther east of the region. Light southwest winds of 10 knots or less during the day are expected Sunday. Minimum relative humidity values will generally be around twelve to seventeen percent in central Nevada with thirty percent or so in the north through the next seven days. && .FIRE WEATHER...Upper level ridging is expected to continue over northern and central Nevada through the seven day period. This will bring generally light winds and gradually warming temperatures into the 60s and 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86/93/93/86