Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
132 FXUS65 KLKN 291937 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1237 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025 * Heat Advisory for Southwestern Elko County, Northern Eureka County, Northern Lander County, and Humboldt County Monday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern Nevada Tuesday afternoon * Critical risk of wildfires in Central Nevada Tuesday * A few strong thunderstorms expected each afternoon and evening Tuesday through Saturday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will extend northwestward across Northern Nevada this afternoon through Monday. There is an elevated risk of wildfires in Central Nevada Monday due to south wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 7 percent. High temperatures throughout Northern Nevada Monday afternoon will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Southwestern Elko County, Northern Eureka County, Northern Lander County, and Humboldt County from 11 AM PDT Monday morning until 9 PM PDT Monday evening. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 95 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern Nevada on Monday, June 30th, 2025: Winnemucca - 99% Elko - 98% Battle Mountain - 98% Crescent Valley - 98% Carlin - 97% McDermitt - 96% West Wendover - 90% Denio - 90% Spring Creek - 70% Montello - 55% An upper-level area of low pressure will meander around the Eastern Pacific Ocean Tuesday, just off the coast of Central California. High temperatures throughout Northern Nevada Tuesday afternoon will be seven to nine degrees above seasonal values. This will result in a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern Nevada. Although heat events like this are relatively common and happen many times a year, heat-related impacts are possible for those new to the area if simple precautions are not taken. A Heat Advisory may be required. There is a major risk of wildfires in Central Nevada Tuesday due to southerly wind gusts near 35 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 6 percent. A Red Flag Warning may be required. The aforementioned upper-level area of low pressure will make landfall over Southern California Wednesday. This cyclone aloft will open up into a trough of low pressure Thursday as it moves eastward across Southern Nevada. A trough of low pressure will pass eastward over the Pacific Northwest Friday. Another atmospheric disturbance may move over Central California Friday into Saturday. This disturbance could impact the service area next Sunday. Isolated, dry thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening will transition to an isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Wednesday through Saturday as atmospheric moisture increases. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern Nevada Tuesday afternoon. High forecast confidence in a critical risk of wildfires in Central Nevada Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding the Heat Advisory Monday. Low forecast confidence in the location of thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Scattered to broken clouds with CIGs ranging from FL100 to FL180 will be present across northern and central NV. Afternoon instability may initiate afternoon thunderstorms, however, due to limited coverage and low probability, thunderstorms were not included in the TAFs. Afternoon breezes with gusts up to 18 kts will subside between 01Z and 02Z Monday at KTPH. Winds are expected to increase out of the N-NE starting around 05Z Monday at KEKO and KWMC, with gusts of 20-30 kts. Winds will gradually subside overnight. AMD NOT SKED for KELY due to visibility sensor issues. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions will persist through at least early next week as high pressure strengthens over the western U.S., while a low pressure system remains situated off the California coast. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue Monday due to minimum relative humidity values remaining below 15% and sustained winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Critical fire weather conditions are possible in Central Nevada Tuesday. Increasing instability and moisture ahead of the low will bring a 10-20% chance of isolated dry thunderstorms, primarily north of the I-80 corridor on Monday and Tuesday. As the week progresses, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected to continue into midweek. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday for NVZ030-036-038. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...90