042
FXUS65 KLKN 151923
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1123 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1123 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

* Unseasonably warm today

* Periods of rain in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada
  Saturday evening through Monday night

* Light snow on passes and summits Sunday evening through Monday
  night

* Much cooler Sunday and Monday

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper-level low pressure system over
Southern California will shift northward into northern and central Nevada
this evening. This will be the first of several weather impacts
through Monday, with models showing greater confidence of more
weather impacts late-week. Precipitation will be widespread
throughout northern and central by this evening with periods of
rain lasting through Monday. No chance of snow this evening as
temperatures remain very warm, except for mountain peaks as snow
levels will be at 10,000 ft. Snow levels are expected to drop as
cooler temperatures move in, dropping to 6000 ft by Monday. Light
snow is expected over passes and summits along US-50 and I-80 east
of Elko Sunday evening through Monday. Chance of precipitation
gradually increases as the system moves north, up to 60-70% for
central Nevada this evening, and Sunday afternoon, with northern
Nevada up to 25-30% this evening, increasing to 50-70% tomorrow
afternoon. Chances are lower Monday, but stay around 25-35% across
the region.

Much cooler temperatures expected across central and northern
Nevada as the system moves east, giving a more northerly flow.
Temperatures Sunday expected to be 10 degrees cooler than today,
with Monday temperatures dropping to below normal. Models are
showing better agreement of another round of weather impacting the
silver state late Wednesday evening into Thursday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of unseasonably
warm temperatures today, followed by cooler weather Sunday and
below normal temperatures Monday. High confidence of intermittent
periods of rain over central and northern Nevada this evening
through Monday. Moderate confidence of light snow on summits and
passes Sunday evening through Monday. Increasing confidence of
another weather system impacting Nevada late Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&


.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to be dominant at all northern terminals
until this evening. Central terminals KELY and KTPH may see MVFR
or lower conditions today as -SHRA and -RA passes over the
airports along with possible HZ and BR conditions. This evening,
VCSH and light showers are expected to impact all terminals this
evening. Cloud levels also expected to impact flight conditions
dropping between FL010 and FL050 at all airports. Southerly winds
at all airports with speeds at northern terminals at 7-10 kts,
while central terminals seeing stronger winds at 12-15 kts, gusts
up to 25 kts.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97