Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
912 FXUS65 KLKN 311035 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 335 AM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 207 AM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025 * Dry and fair weather continues thru Monday * Mostly dry thunderstorms return Tuesday, primarily across central Nevada, and persist thru the end of the week && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather continues today with afternoon cumulus clouds and light winds present as an upper level ridge amplifies over the western U.S. Atmospheric moisture will begin to creep north and into the forecast area Monday. Additional afternoon cumulus will be apparent Monday, likely along with virga, and atmospheric moisture content looks to be borderline for dry thunderstorms, though the progs are not entirely concise in this regard. Wont rule out a stray lightning strike or two, primarily over the high terrain of central Nevada, but not enough confidence to include thunderstorms in the forecast at this time. Higher confidence that diurnally driven thunderstorms will return to central Nevada beginning Tuesday as an upper level perturbation helps advect moisture north and into the forecast area. Storms look to be at least a mix of wet and dry. Afternoon thunderstorms continue across the forecast area the remainder of the week, though expecting storm modes to become mostly dry. Main hazards will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow winds with gusts 45 mph or more, cloud to ground lightning, and small hail, with the greatest risk of hail being on Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise prevailing winds will be generally light. Daytime high temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warmer Monday with daytime highs residing in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows will also warm a few degrees, residing mostly in the upper 40s to upper 50s Monday night. Temperatures hold in this general range the remainder of the week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence today with a bit of uncertainty Monday as outlined previously. Moderate amount of uncertainty carries into next week with regard to areal coverage of thunderstorms and rainfall totals across the forecast area, and in particular, central Nevada. Though, highly confident that the bulk of the activity will occur across central Nevada. NBM POPs looking more reasonable this morning and have opted to maintain NBM with modest edits. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and fair weather continues today with afternoon cumulus clouds present as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the western U.S. Minimum afternoon RH readings will be widespread in the teens, though winds will be generally light. Down valley and downslope winds will be dominant tonight. Atmospheric moisture begins to creep north and back into the Great Basin Monday as the upper level ridge continues to amplify. Additional afternoon cumulus will be apparent Monday afternoon, likely along with some virga. Not anticipating thunderstorms Monday as progs indicate atmospheric moisture content to be barely under the threshold required for dry storms. However, with that said, not going to completely rule out a stray lightning strike or two at this time, primarily over the high terrain of central Nevada, but not enough confidence right now to include thunderstorms in the forecast, especially with the prognostics recently indicating borderline atmospheric moisture content and not being in concise agreement on moisture content at this time. Higher confidence that diurnally driven thunderstorms will return to central Nevada beginning Tuesday as an upper level perturbation helps advect moisture north and into the forecast area. Thunderstorms and showers will be at least a mix of wet and dry and wetting rains look likely at this time. Convection lingers thru the latter half of the week, though storm modes look to be mostly dry. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...92