Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
418 FXUS65 KLKN 132100 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025 * Very warm daytime temperatures through Wednesday. * Elevated fire weather conditions continue due to warm temperatures, light to breezy winds, and low afternoon surface humidity levels. * Isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening * Scattered dry thunderstorms in Eastern Elko County Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: No major updates this afternoon with the Heat Advisory continuing through 1 am Thursday for Moderate to localized Major Heatrisk. Consider moving strenuous activities to the morning or late evening hours, if not post-poning altogether. High pressure continues to slowly move eastward, however today is expected to be very warm with temperatures in the 90s to 100s with overnight lows not cooling down far enough to allow adequate recovery from daytime heating with low temperatures in the 60s to 70s. Heat Advisory is still in effect for Elko, N Eureka, Humboldt, N Lander, and N Nye counties until 1 AM Thursday. An upper level trough will move into the Silver State from central California today, though weak, will still be strong enough to focus mid-level moisture to generate 10% to 20% chances for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, with a 20% to 40% chance Thursday afternoon for scattered wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of central and northern Nevada. The trough is then likely to sit over Nevada as the upper flow stalls, keeping chances for isolated storms over the eastern half of the state, however these storms have a high probability of being dry thunderstorms. This pattern of upper level troughing over western U.S. and upper level ridging over central U.S. looks to persist through to the middle of next week, keeping Nevada under a southerly flow aloft. This southerly flow will aid in bringing in cooler temperatures after Thursday, ranging from the 80s to 90s across the region. Overnight lows also cooling into the 50s to 60s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the continuation of very warm temperatures through Thursday morning across the Great Basin. There is a 10% to 20% chance for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms across portions of central and northern Nevada Wednesday afternoon. There is moderate confidence in the development of a low 20% to 40% chance of an isolated to scattered mix of dry and wet thunderstorms Thursday afternoon for portions of central and northern NV. These are the highest probabilities we have seen in nearly two weeks in the past dry spell. There is high confidence of elevated fire weather conditions, with warm temperatures and low afternoon surface humidity levels, across central and northern Nevada for the forecast period. There is moderate confidence for the development of a low 10% to 30% chances for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms across eastern NV Friday, Saturday and Sunday afternoons. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Afternoon breezes expected with gusts 20KT to 25KT. High based, isolated thunderstorms are also forecast this afternoon with coverage including all terminals except for KWMC. However, greatest confidence for any impacts on or near terminal will be at KEKO where VCTS has been included in the TAF. Gusty and erratic wind gusts of 45+KT will be associated with any thunderstorms and localized blowing dust may briefly reduce surface VIS. AMD NOT SKED at KBAM due to a communications issue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon into this evening due to west wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 9 percent. Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in Eastern Elko County Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening due to scattered, dry thunderstorms. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 1 AM PDT Thursday NVZ030-031-033-036-038>041. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ470. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...87