Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
083 FXUS65 KLKN 041028 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 328 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Today there is a 10% probability of thunderstorms in Southern White Pine and Northeastern Nye Counties * Thursday there is a 15-25% probability of thunderstorms in Northern Nye and Southern White Pine Counties * Friday there is a 10% probability of thunderstorms in Eastern Elko County, and a 30% probability of thunderstorms across Central Nevada * Warming trend Friday through at least Sunday && .DISCUSSION... (Today and tonight) Issued at 205 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Mostly sunny today across Northern Nevada and most of Central Nevada, though there is a 10% chance of thunderstorms across East-Central Nevada, mainly over and near Great Basin National Park. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 70s to low 80s which is near normal for the date. Noticeably more clouds across the region Thursday afternoon, however thunderstorm development is expected to remain south of the Highway 50 corridor. Most locations will notice high temperatures trending warmer by a few degrees Thursday. Warming trend continues as upper level ridging strengthens over the western U.S. bringing highs back into the 80s and 90s. Friday, small chance of isolated showers south of the US-50 , however atmospheric setup may have the showers be short live or have dry convection in the area. Over the weekend and into Monday, ridging continues to strengthen and drying out the state, raising temperatures up to 13 degrees above normal into the 90s across much of the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, however confidence remains low at this time for any development. Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures remain high in the 80s to 90s, yet models show returning showers and thunderstorms over the region as a potential low pressure trough makes its way from the northwest, however confidence that far out is low as models disagree on the timing, strength, and location of the trough. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Recent guidance has lowered the probability of thunderstorm activity this afternoon across Southern White Pine and NE Nye Counties to 10%. Thunderstorms remain in the forecast today, but with lower confidence due to drier air and less instability. Expecting most TS activity to be focused south of the CWA today. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 205 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Scattered to broken clouds with ceilings ranging from FL100 to FL250 will persist across northern and central NV. Winds will generally be from the north at 8-12 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts at KTPH. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025 There is a 10% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across portions of southern FWZ 425, along with FWZ 426. Thursday through Saturday isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to shift northward, reaching to or slightly north of the Highway 50 corridor Friday and Saturday. Sunday afternoon storms are expected to expand up into portions of Northern Nevada as well. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96/97 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...96