Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
921 FXUS65 KLKN 231913 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1213 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week * Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Cooling trend continues today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Monsoon activity continues this afternoon as the upper ridge near the four corners keeps bringing in moisture from the south into Nevada. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-50%) across central Nevada along the US-50 corridor and into northeastern Nevada. Humboldt County expected to remain dry. Storms are expected to be wet, but as storm motions increase today, storms will become a mix of wet and dry. Monday, models still show a 20-50% chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and will be more across northern Nevada and parts of White Pine County. Due to storm motions being a little fast, much of the storms will be a mix of wet and dry, especially for Humboldt county starting as dry thunderstorms and transition to more of a mix by the evening. By Tuesday and Wednesday, thunderstorm chances continue to drop to a 10-30% chance more across eastern Nevada. Greatest hazards with these thunderstorms is gusty erratic outflow winds up to 45-55 mph, brief periods of heavy rainfall especially over recently burned areas, and cloud to ground lightning. The cooling temperature trend will hit sort of a plateau as highs stay in the mid 90s, but cloud cover from storms has helped with cooler temperatures moving in. By the end of the week, cooling temperature trends will amp up with highs dropping into the 80s by the weekend. Southerly winds will shift more to a southwesterly direction over the week as the high pressure shifts west, with elevated speeds up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoons. After Wednesday, models show increasing confidence that the high pressure that has been bringing in monsoonal moisture will begin to shift back west towards southern Arizona, thus cutting off moisture flow. At the end of the week, the discrepancies with the models take shape with different outcomes of weather patterns. ECMWF is showing the upper ridge strengthening and spreading across the southwest, which will lead to a more southwesterly flow that will give drier air and warmer temperatures. GFS is showing an upper level trough over the northwest and pushing towards the silver state, giving a more zonal flow still with dry air but also with cooler temperatures. Confidence remains mixed on what the outcome will be for the extended period with overall conditions expected to be dry, but temperatures and winds remain uncertain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for daily monsoon activity with a 20-50% chance today and tomorrow for central and northern Nevada. Moderate confidence for a 10-30% chance for monsoon activity over eastern Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderate confidence on dry conditions returning to the silver state Thursday through Sunday next week. Low confidence in upper level patterns after Wednesday as models show discrepancies on potential outcomes for winds and temperatures. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Winds from the south/southwest at 10-15 kts, gusts up to 20-25 kts. VCTS conditions possible near all terminals this afternoon and evening as monsoonal moisture keeps a 20-50% chance for storm development. There is a small chance that some of the storms may move over the terminals with -TSRA conditions, but will be left out of the TAFs as chances are low except for KENV with a greater than 30% chance a thunderstorm will move over the terminal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monsoon activity continues as monsoonal moisture continues to push into Nevada from the south. 20-50% chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada today and tomorrow. Greatest hazards will be gusty erratic winds from outflows up to 45-55 mph, brief periods of heavy rainfall especially over recently burned areas, and cloud to ground lightning. By Tuesday and Wednesday, monsoonal moisture flow will begin to slow down and be cut off by Thursday as the high pressure that is bringing in the moisture shifts more west towards Arizona. There will still be a 10-30% chance for more isolated to scattered thunderstorms over eastern Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will shift from a southerly direction to a more southwesterly direction by mid-week, with afternoon speeds up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...97