Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
557 FXUS65 KLKN 121115 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 315 AM PST Wed Feb 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dangerous cold temperatures Wednesday morning ahead of a strong weather system that will bring winter weather to the Silver State late this week. The incoming system will bring gusty winds and snowfall to much of the area Thursday and Friday prompting multiple Wind and Winter Weather Advisories across the region into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Thursday night Upstream flow behind Tuesdays quick moving shortwave has overnight lows and apparent temperatures in single digits and even below zero for northern and central NV Wednesday AM prompting a Cold Weather Advisory for much of the CWA. Upper level northwest flow over the area will continue through Wednesday ahead of brief ridging Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thursday morning a warm front will lift from southwest to northeast through the region in the warm sector of the incoming trough. This will create southwest flow under a tightening pressure gradient that will lead to strong gusty winds over central NV Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will rebound under said flow into the 30s Thursday and maintain a range of upper 20s lower 30s through Thursday night into Friday morning. Model sounding analysis across the CWA shows an increase in PW values from 0.05-0.08 at 05z Thursday to 0.35-0.42 by 12z. This increased moisture availability is more than suitable for hydrometeor generation above a dry layer that looks to erode between 15z and 18z Thursday. Precipitation will be mostly snowfall for all elevations as snow levels remain at or before 6000 feet Thursday evening. Valleys will see 2-4 inches with this system with higher values of 10-20 inches possible for the Ruby and East Humboldt ranges. The axis of the trough and associated boundary will begin to push the the area Friday morning as snowfall continues across the CWA. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement for a trough of low pressure to move southeast across the Desert Southwest while a ridge of a high pressure strengthens over the eastern Pacific. Lingering snow showers across the forecast area will taper off Saturday morning, giving away to dry northwesterly flow by the afternoon and evening. Winds will increase out of the south- southwest at 10-15 mph on Friday, with gusts of 20-25 mph. A Pacific Northwest trough and cold front advances eastward, bringing light rain and mountain snow showers from Sunday into Monday. Most of the wintry mix and higher elevation snow will fall Sunday, mainly north of I-80. Snow levels will fluctuate between 6,500 and 7,500 feet, with snowfall likely concentrated in higher terrain. Below are the probabilities of 0.5 inches or more of snowfall at select locations in northern and central Nevada for February 16-17th. Austin - 20% Elko - 5% Ely - 5% Eureka - 25% Jackpot 40% Owyhee 60% Pequop Summit - 55% Spring Creek - 35% Wells - 40% Highs late next week will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s with overnight lows ranging from the teens to 20s. Starting Tuesday, uncertainty emerges as cluster analysis and probabilistic ensemble guidance diverge, with some models indicating another Pacific Northwest trough advancing eastward, while others suggest a persistent ridge over the forecast area. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions through at least this evening. There may be periods of scattered high clouds today, otherwise mostly sunny with relatively light winds of 10kts or less. CIGs increase and lower from west to east this evening, with snow showers reaching KWMC around 12Z Thursday. By 20Z Thursday snow showers are expected to impact all terminals. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning Humboldt... Northern Elko...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range in Elko... South Central Elko...Southeastern Elko...Southern Lander and Southern Eureka...Southwest Elko...White Pine. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 6 PM PST Friday Humboldt...Northeastern Nye...Northern Elko...Northwestern Nye... South Central Elko...Southern Lander and Southern Eureka... Southwest Elko...White Pine. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 6 PM PST Friday Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range in Elko. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday Northeastern Nye... Northwestern Nye...Southern Lander and Southern Eureka...White Pine. && $$ 99/96/90