629
FXUS65 KLKN 050842
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
142 AM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 136 AM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

* Friday will see thunderstorm chances peak, and the number of
  wet thunderstorms far outnumber dry.

*Saturday storm chances shift, with eastern Nevada seeing a 20%
 to 50% of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms

* Dry conditions return Sunday and Monday as upper flow sifts to
  the WSW bringing in drier air.

* Tuesday a large upper trough will push in from the NW bringing
  a return of showers and thunderstorms as cooler temperatures
  through late week.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)

Southerly upper level flow continues bringing thunderstorms and
shower chances for Nevada. This upper pattern is book ended with a
broad upper level ridge located over the four corners region, and
a upper level trough that is offshore trying to push in over the
west coast. Friday storm chances peak at 40% to 70% area wide.
There is also a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday,
for central Nevada as PW values near one inch, and combined with
slow storm motion will create a risk of flooding for mainly south
of the US-50 corridor. Saturday storm chances, and the flash flood
risk shift east with a 20% to 50% chance of storms and showers
across eastern Elko and White Pine counties, as the upper trough
lifts into Canada as the upper ridge shifts into southern
California. This will change the orientation of the upper flow to
be out of the West-Southwest. This change will push monsoonal
moisture out of Nevada leading to a break in the action Sunday
into Monday. After Monday, Models have come into agreement with
the upper pattern through late week. Both the GFS and the EC show
a large upper level trough or closed low developing over the
northern half of the west coast. This trough/closed low will then
stall over Oregon as the upper pattern becomes blocked. Models
show this trough/low holding firm through at least Thursday of
next week. This will be a favorable set up for precipitation for
Nevada as this system will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
for next week as well as cooler temperatures, as shortwaves eject
into the SW flow over Nevada. For Friday and Saturday model
solutions diverge again as the EC splits the upper trough into 2
parts with the northern section ejecting into the northern plains,
while the southern part remains over the west coast. The GFS
favors keeping the tough as a single entity, and lifting it NE
into the northern plains as upper ridging takes shape over the SW
US. For now given the uncertainty, will stick with the EC
solutions for now. As for temperatures forecast has not changed
much, as a cooling trend continues. Highs will start in the upper
70s to upper 80s Friday, cooling into the mid 70s to mid 80s by
Sunday afternoon. For Monday through Thursday Highs will cool
further into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will not be as
cool with clouds on the increase as low range in the low 50 to
mid 60s through Sunday morning. Lows do cool through Thursday of
next week as lows return to the low 40s to low 50s.

&&


.AVIATION...

Fair weather and VFR conditions this morning, though VCTS return
to all terminals this afternoon, beginning around 19Z. The typical
thunderstorm hazards of strong and erratic wind gusts of 45KT or
more, brief reductions in VIS due to rainfall, and/or brief
reductions in ceilings leading to MVFR or IFR conditions should be
expected with any storms that move on terminal. Thunderstorms
dissipate by 05Z with VCSH forecast after that, into the early
morning hours of Saturday. Otherwise cloud bases are anticipated
to remain higher than 5000ft AGL and prevailing winds will be
generally light, around 10KT or less, except for KTPH where
afternoon gusts around 18KT can be expected.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Thunderstorm activity continues Friday for all fire weather
zones. More organized shower and thunderstorm activity will
initiate around mid day over fire weather zones 425, 426, and 427
before areal coverage increases over the area to include all zones
by early afternoon. The nature of storm activity will be a mix of
wet and dry storms as the atmosphere over the region continues to
be moist and unstable. Storm activity will last well into Friday
evening before diminishing overnight.

Saturday the focus of storm activity shifts slightly north for
all fire weather zones except 426. As the pattern changes and flow
over the region shifts activity will slow wane from southwest to
northeast by through the afternoon. By Saturday evening activity
will be confined mainly to fire weather zones 425, 438, 469, and
470. On Sunday coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms is confined
to northern portions of fire zones 469 and 470.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...99