955
FXUS65 KLKN 030844
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
144 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 140 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

* Active pattern continues for far northern Nevada.

* Low chances for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms for far
  northern Elko, and northern Humboldt counties for Sunday and
  Monday.

* Breezy winds and low relative humidity will keep elevated fire
  weather conditions for central Nevada through next week.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:The upper pattern is on the move with
the southern subtropical ridge sliding westward toward Southern
California, While the northern stream ridge will be pushed east
into Ontario, Canada. This will allow for more progressive
westerly flow to over the northern tier, with a new upper trough
pushing across the Pacific NW through Monday. Models incorporating
a more active flow pattern in location, have shown better
agreement having the trough clip far northern Nevada. This will
bring a low chance of isolated thunderstorms beginning Sunday
afternoon, with better chances Monday afternoon. So for Sunday,
there will be a 10% probability for a isolated thunderstorm or two
across far northern Humboldt county, and for Monday afternoon a
low 10 to 20% chance of thunderstorms for far northern Humboldt
and Elko counties. Mid level moisture present and forecast looks
to be low with PW values favoring dry thunderstorms each day. Also
for Monday afternoon as the upper trough passes to our north,
central NV will see a increase in SW winds for Monday afternoon,
and with already low surface humidity in place, will need to watch
for the possibility of critical fire weather conditions for White
Pine and NE Nye counties as wind are forecast to be strongest.
This trough will exit the area by early Tuesday morning leaving
the Silver state under a drier yet progressive WSW upper flow
regime. Models agreement Tuesday through Saturday is better this
evening, but is still lacking consistency for a high confidence
forecast. Overall Models are showing that the upper ridge will
settle in over the southern Arizona/New Mexico border area. While
persistent long wave troughing sets up off the Pacific NW. Which
will vary depending on the strength of individual shortwaves that
flow through it. This will keep WSW flow over northern and central
Nevada, that for now, looks to be a dry pattern lasting into the
following weekend. Temperatures for the period look to be well
constrained thanks to afternoon convective build-ups, even as
storm chances dwindle, keeping daytime highs in check. Highs look
to range from the upper 80s to upper 90s across Nevada with day to
day variation depending on cloud development. For overnight lows
look for temperatures each night to fall into the mid 50s to mid
60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is moderate confidence in the development of a low 10%
chance for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms across far northern
Humboldt county Sunday afternoon.

There is moderate confidence n the development of a low 10% to
20% chance for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms across far
northern Elko, and Humboldt Counties for Monday afternoon.

There is High confidence of elevated fire weather conditions,
with breezy winds and low afternoon surface humidity levels,
across central and northern Nevada for the forecast period


&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions forecast to persist through Monday for
all terminals, light to breezy W-SW winds of 10KT to 15KT with
gusts to 25KT during the afternoon hours. There is the possibility
for a few dry thunderstorms across far northern Nevada Sunday and
Monday afternoons, however the best chances look to remain north
of any terminals at this time. KELY and KTPH may see SW winds pick
up Monday afternoon at 10KT to 20KT with gusts to 30KT possible.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Continuing elevated fire weather conditions today and tomorrow due
mainly to breezy winds and low relative humidity values. Some
isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to persist along the
Oregon/Idaho border but coverage is expected to be very limited.
No changes to the current pattern are expected for mid week,
however there are some low confidence indications for slightly
more moisture to build in for Wednesday on.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...94