Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
796 FXUS65 KLKN 180829 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 129 AM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 AM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 * Warm and dry conditions are expected to today and Tuesday. * Elevated fire weather conditions will persist due to warm temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and low humidity. * Active weather returns midweek with periods of afternoon and evening monsoonal thunderstorms expected across northern and central Nevada. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the forecast area, with a trough of low pressure situated along the west coast and high pressure over the southern U.S. Warm and dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday as high pressure gradually retrogrades over the western U.S. Highs will reach into the upper 80s to upper 90s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will be breezy with gusts up to 25 mph. By Thursday, monsoonal moisture rotating around the high pressure system will interact with weak to moderate instability across much of the forecast area. This will support the development of isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend. Storms will be a mix of wet and dry, with the potential for gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: With recent fires in northern Nevada, weather grids were adjusted to incorporate high resolution guidance for smoke, particularly around the Tuscarora area. The latest cluster analysis and probabilistic ensemble guidance are gradually converging on the timing, extent of moisture, and instability for the development of afternoon thunderstorms mid to late next week. The NBM appears to be struggling with the aerial extent and coverage, so weather grids have been adjusted based on recent model trends. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out of the west to southwest at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Southwesterly flow continues today with winds at 10-15 mph, gusts up to 20-25 mph. Fire weather conditions are not expected to be elevated at any zone, however warm and dry conditions are expected with min RH values below 15% in northern Nevada except for zone 437 just above 15%, while central Nevada sees min RH in the single digits. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...97