966
FXUS65 KLKN 302309
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
309 PM PST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing cloud cover is expected tonight into Friday
associated with a progressing atmospheric river that will impact
northern Nevada as early as Friday morning. Several waves rain and
snow are expected through the weekend across the northern half of
the state. Heaviest snow will be confined to mountainous terrain
above 6000 feet but some snow is expected inn valleys Saturday
morning mainly north of I-80. Gusty winds are expected across the
area through early next week in addition to continued chances for
rain and snow over northern Nevada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.

Cloud cover in advance of an expected atmospheric river event will
increase through tonight into Friday morning across much of
northwestern Nevada. Dynamic support aloft from a strengthening
upper-level jet will promote light precipitaion across northern
Nevada but snow levels will rapidly rise across central and then
into northeastern Nevada as Friday progresses limiting snow
impacts to summits and passes above 6500 feet. Even then,
precipitation rates will be light with no significant rain or snow
accumulations across the area through Friday night. Heavier
valley rain and snow is expected Saturday as deeper Pacific
moisture penetrates further into the Great Basin region.
Temperatures will be relatively warm, supporting a mixed
precipitation environment. Highs are expected to range from the
upper 30s across northern Elko county to lower 50s in lower
Nevada valleys to the west and south. Lows tonight will be in the
teens before the arrival or more widespread cloud cover. The
clouds and increased southwest winds bringing in warmer air aloft
will support lows only dropping into the 20s and 30s for Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday.

Active weather continues through the long term as multiple Pacific
systems impact the western United States. Rain and snow showers
continue across all but the southernmost edge of the forecast area
on Saturday. Snow levels near 5000 feet are expected near the
Oregon/Idaho border, with a sharp temperature gradient setting up
in the northern half of the forecast area and resulting in snow
levels between 7-8000 feet in the southern half of the forecast
area. Sunday and Monday look much like Saturday only slightly
warmer, with that gradient shifting closer to the Oregon/Idaho
border. That temperature gradient looks to be the defining factor
in rain vs snow in the valleys, but there is some model
disagreement on the precise location it will set up at and snow
totals in Humboldt and Elko counties during this period could
change significantly if that gradient shifts north or south. Snow
totals Saturday through Monday look to be confined to elevations
above 6000 feet and accumulations of 6-12 inches every 24 hours
are possible at mountain peaks over the weekend.

Models begin to diverge significantly on Tuesday, but what does
seem clear is that precipitation chances arent done. While the
southern half of the forecast area does dry out for a time early
Tuesday morning (PoPs <15%), broader shower chances (PoPs 15-50%)
return during the day Tuesday as an upper low in British Columbia
descends to the Washington and Oregon coasts. This system will
also decrease surface temperatures by 8-10 degrees by Wednesday in
most places and dropping snow levels as a result. Snow levels
gradually decrease from 5-7000 feet on Tuesday to mainly below
5000 feet on Wednesday, although levels up to 6000 feet linger in
northern Nye and White Pine counties until late Wednesday night.
Shower chances continue both days with PoPs generally between
30-70%. Its too early to confidently estimate snow totals for
this period, but widespread measurable snow is anticipated and
mountain tops can expect at least four inches.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Friday morning
across the area. Increasing upper-level cloud cover tonight into
Friday morning will signal the advancement of the next weather
disturbance in the form of a prolonged precipitation event across
northern Nevada including at KWMC, KBAM and KEKO going into late
Friday and the weekend. Mainly dry conditions will prevail across
central Nevada including KTPH and KELY with minimal expected
impact from light rain showers beginning Saturday. With relatively
high snow levels of 6000-7000 feet msl, probability of snow and
thus impacts to VIS is remains low along the I-80 corridor.
However, mountain obscurations will be widespread across northern
Nevada for the weekend.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/94/93