Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
259 FXUS65 KLKN 242144 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 244 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 233 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025 * Wetting thunderstorms likely in much of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through Wednesday * Marginal risk of excessive rainfall in most of Northern and Central Nevada today through Wednesday * Cooling trend today through Wednesday && .UPDATE... Issued at 233 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Forecast remains on track. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across most of Central and portions of Northern Nevada this afternoon, with more convective activity expected into this evening. Thunderstorms today are capable of producing pea sized hail or brief periods of moderate rainfall, cloud to ground lightning, and outflow wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will remain parked over the Four Corners region of the United States today. This cyclone aloft will slides southward into the Desert Southwest Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will extend northward across the Great Basin Monday through Wednesday. An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will move eastward into California Thursday. This trough of low pressure will dissipate over the Silver State Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Northern and Central Nevada from 11 AM PDT this morning until 8 PM PDT this evening. Near record heat is expected in Elko this afternoon. The current record for maximum temperature measured in Elko on August 23rd is 100 degrees, initially established in 1919 and last recorded in 1967. Temperature records in Elko date back to 1888. An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is anticipated in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lighting strikes. Monsoonal moisture will surge northward into most of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday through Wednesday, resulting in the likelihood of wetting thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall may result in minor flooding of recent burn scars, streams, creeks, and low-lying areas. The heaviest rainfall should remain west of Humboldt County. A cooling trend trend is expected Sunday through Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be around five degrees below seasonal values. Temperatures will moderate and rain chances will decrease Thursday and Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding the Heat Advisory for Northern Nevada today. High forecast confidence in a moderate risk for heat-related illness in Northern Nevada today. High forecast confidence regarding wetting thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Sunday through Wednesday. Moderate forecast confidence in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for most of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday through Wednesday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... MVFR or lower conditions are expected in KELY and KTPH this afternoon due to thunderstorm impacts. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KWMC, KBAM, and KENV this afternoon into this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monsoonal moisture will surge northward into much of Northern and Central Nevada today through Wednesday, resulting in the likelihood of wetting thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts as high as 50 mph, dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. In addition, heavy rainfall may result in minor flooding of recent burn scars. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...87