Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
078 FXUS65 KLKN 101925 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1225 PM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 PM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025 * Strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening * A few strong thunderstorms are expected in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening * Precipitation chances increase tonight into Saturday night as a trough of low pressure passes across Northern Nevada * Much cooler this weekend && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of low pressure will remain just offshore of Oregon today. South wind gusts near 40 mph are expected in Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Blowing dust will reduce visibilities at times. Travel will be difficult, particularly for high profile vehicles. A few strong thunderstorms could develop over Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards would be wind gusts near 45 mph, locally heavy rainfall, dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. A trough of low pressure will pass eastward across Northern Nevada tonight into Saturday night, resulting in elevated precipitation chances. Precipitation chances will be highest over Eastern Nevada. The majority of precipitation will fall Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Snow levels will start at around 10,000 feet tonight, before dropping to about 6,000 feet Saturday night. Here are probabilities of one tenth of an inch of rain or more for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada from 11 PM PDT Friday, October 10th, 2025 until 11 PM PDT Saturday, October 11th, 2025: Lages Junction - 68% Ruby Valley - 65% Ely - 64% Eureka - 60% Wells - 60% Jackpot - 58% Lamoille - 56% West Wendover - 55% Lund - 51% Spring Creek - 47% A cooling trend is expected this weekend. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will be around fifteen degrees cooler than this afternoon. Maximum temperatures Sunday afternoon will be about ten degrees below normal for this time of year. Sub-freezing temperatures are anticipated in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night. A cyclone aloft will move southward, just off the west coast of the United States Monday and Monday night. This upper-level area of low pressure will turn eastward and make landfall over Central California Tuesday. The cyclone aloft will progress northeastward across the Silver State Tuesday night and Wednesday. This atmospheric disturbance will be responsible for another round of valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday through Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Moderate forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. High forecast confidence regarding elevated precipitation chances tonight into Saturday night. High forecast confidence in much cooler weather this weekend. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KELY and KENV this afternoon into this evening. Showers are anticipated in the vicinity of KEKO this evening into tonight. South wind gusts near 30 knots are likely at KELY this afternoon through Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... South wind gusts near 40 mph are expected in Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few strong thunderstorms may develop over Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated in Eastern Nevada tonight into Saturday night as an atmospheric disturbance passes eastward across Northern Nevada. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 87