412
FXUS65 KLKN 230925
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
125 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A quick moving system clipping the northern tier of
the Silver state Sunday afternoon into Monday will be the only
bug in the forecast this week as upper ridging brings a Springtime
preview as near record high temperatures with quiet conditions
move in for the week ahead.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Sunday

Sunday: Clouds will be building in across the Silver State as an
upper trough tracks through the Pacific northwest. The good news
is for most of NV, the slow building of long wave ridging from the
SW will keep the track of the upper trough well to the north with
most of the state staying dry. However the trailing boundary will
clip northern Nevada Sunday afternoon will act as a focus,
bringing a low 40% to 60% chance of isolated light showers across
the far northern tier of the state north of I-80. Snow levels
Sunday will start at 7500 feet and look to rise to 8500 feet
during the day, meaning any light precipitation that does fall
will be mostly rain and totals only in the trace to 0.15, with
the highest elevations seeing up to 1 to 3 of snow from this
system. For now the main impact of this system will be for
increased west to SW winds across Humboldt and Elko counties
Sunday afternoon with speeds in the 15 MPH to 25 MPH with
occasional gusts up to 35 MPH possible, wind across central NV
wont be as strong running at 5 MPH to 15 MPH. This system will
exit rather quickly Sunday night with quiet conditions returning
state wide by Monday morning. Monday looks to be mostly quiet with
ridging continuing to build across the Great Basin, Monday
afternoon a few models show a small piece of energy associates
with a very subtle shortwave transiting the SW flow will cross the
Sierras and bring a small 10% to 25% of a rain shower or two
across central Nevada. Amounts will be very light if any at a
trace to 0.05 of water. Highs Monday will start to warm with SW
flow and upper ridging, as highs soar well above normal, ranging
in the upper 50s to upper 60s with low Tuesday morning dropping
into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Winds Monday will still be elevated
Monday across western NV with SW winds at 15 MPH to 25 MPH with
gusts up to 35 MPH possible winds across central and eastern NV
will be lighter running a 5 MPH to 15 MPH with a few gusts up to
25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday

Look for more dry and warm conditions during the week as the
zonal flow Tuesday begins to strengthen into an upper level ridge.
Temperatures continue on a warming trend, increasing gradually
each day into the 50s to 60s by Thursday. Breezy westerly winds
Tuesday at 10-15 mph from the zonal pattern, then becoming light
Wednesday, followed by southerly winds at 10-15 mph on Thursday.
By Friday, models are showing an off- cut- low forming and heading
south towards southern California and Arizona, however this low
is expected to be dry and move far enough south, barely affecting
Nevada with the bulk of the upper ridge still in place, keeping
temperatures warm in the 60s across the region (50s for
northeastern Elko County) along with light winds.

Saturday, models are showing better agreement of a low pressure
trough moving over the western U.S. extending towards southern
California, bringing in cooler temperatures and increase in
moisture with a chance of seeing isolated rain and snow showers
over the weekend. Highs still expected to be warm before the cold
front, reaching into the 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the
30s.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hour
period. VCSH conditions at all northern terminals this morning
with low chance of showers reaching the terminals that could cause
MVFR or lower conditions. Showers will dissipate in the
afternoon, however ceiling and sky conditions persist. Breezy
westerly/southwesterly winds at 10-12 kts, gusts 20-25 kts at
northern terminals.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None. &&

$$

98/97/93