533
FXUS65 KLKN 220812
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
112 AM PDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Look for a slow moisture seep that will help to
introduce light showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, across
central and east-central Nevada by mid-week. Otherwise, pleasant
spring time weather will continue across northern and central
Nevada as high temperatures remain above normal with readings in
the 60s and 70s through the week. The chance at precipitation and
cooler weather returns across the forecast area for upcoming
weekend as a low pressure system impacts the Great Basin Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. Skies are clear at
this time across northern and central Nevada. Current synoptic
situation depicts a northwest flow aloft. Models are showing an
incoming weak upper trough moving southward across the west coast.
Through today, look for the upper flow switch to a more west to
east direction. A slight moisture increase is forecast across
central Nevada in the mid-levels this afternoon. Skies will
initially be mostly sunny this morning but clouds will be on the
increase. Sprinkles are possible in central Nevada but no
accumulations are expected. Highs today will be in the 60s and
70s with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Isolated, light sprinkles will be possible along US Highway 50 and
along the Utah border in the east during the early evening hours.
Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s with light winds.

On Wednesday and Wednesday night, models depict the open trough
closing off at 500 mb with a center of circulation in northern
California. A confluent 700mb to 500 mb axis is expected to
develop in the afternoon. CAPE values of 150 to 250J/kg and
slightly negative lifted indices are forecast to be coincident
with this axis. Have continued the trend for isolated
thunderstorms in central Nevada for the afternoon with isolated to
scattered rain showers in the central and eastern portions. Highs
will continue to be in the 60s and 70s with breezy west to
northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Look for the
isolated light showers continuing into the overnight with lows in
the 30s and 40s once again.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday

Warm and dry weather is expected to end at the end of the week as
ensembles show greater confidence that another low pressure cold
front makes its way over the western U.S. starting Thursday night
and impacting the silver state over the weekend.

Thursday, warm temperatures remain dominant over the region with
highs reaching into the 60s to 70s before the low pressure system
begins to enter the state Thursday night. Southerly breezy winds
at 10-15 mph. Chances for isolated rain overnight remain slim to
none as PW values remain around 0.3 inch, however cloud cover
begins to move overnight which will keep overnight temperatures
warm in the 40s.

Friday, cloud cover increases over much of the region, however
high temperatures still expected to reach into the 60s with
stronger winds in the afternoon as the front approaches. Southerly
winds at 20-25 mph, gusts 30-35 across central Nevada in the
afternoon with northern Nevada seeing 15-20 mph. Isolated showers
not expected, however chances begin to increase late night into
morning with overnight lows dropping into the 30s.

Over the weekend, the cold front is expected to impact the state
as early as Saturday morning before sunrise. Chances for isolated
showers begin to increase further up to 50-60% across northern
Nevada along I-80 corridor to the northern border, with central
Nevada from I-80 towards US-50 corridor seeing chances of up to
30-40% for some light showers. N. Nye County expected to receive
20-30% along the mountain regions while the southern part of the
county is expected to stay dry below 10% chance. The cold front
is expected to drop temperatures cooler at this time of year with
highs in the 50s. Southerly/southwesterly winds increase in the
afternoon at 20-25 mph mainly along northeastern Nye, and White
Pine Counties, 10-15 mph everywhere else while Sunday winds at
10-15 mph from the northwest across the region. Cold front will
aid in dropping Saturday overnight lows reaching near freezing
along the valleys with higher elevations and mountains further
cooling into the 20s. The low overnight temperatures may
transition overnight rain showers into snow mainly along the
mountains lasting until Sunday morning. The system is expected
head further east Sunday, however there is slight chances for the
back flow of the system to bring some more lingering showers
mainly across northeastern Nevada. Showers expected mainly as rain
with snow staying in the mountain tops, and is expected to clear
out overnight.

Monday and Tuesday, longwave upper ridging begins to move back
over the state, bringing in clearer conditions as well as warming
temperatures with highs Monday in the 50s to 60s, and warming to
the 60s to 70s Tuesday. Northwesterly breezes of 10-15 mph each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunny this morning across the region. Weak convection
builds across central NV this afternoon resulting in BKN-OVC CIGs
of 8-12K feet. Not expecting any TS activity at any TAF terminals
this afternoon, though there is around a 5% chance of VCTS for
KELY. SW-W winds of 10kts gusting to around 20kts are expected at
all terminals this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/97/96