Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
915 FXUS65 KLKN 040842 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 142 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025 * Much cooler temperatures expected through the beginning of next week with highs in the 50s and 60s, and overnight lows in the 20s to 30s. * Temperature will recover back into the 60s and 70s next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Most of the precipitation is expected to fall through Saturday morning, but some isolated showers may linger through Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the system exits to the east by Sunday morning, but temperatures will remain cool, with highs in the 50s and low 60s before beginning to warm on Monday. Models are currently in major disagreement beyond Monday, making it much more difficult to determine the forecast. Strong Fall trough to bring beneficial rainfall across Northeastern Nevada on Friday. The possibility still exists for a weak secondary trough on Tuesday but confidence in this solution has greatly decreased. The more favored option, and the one currently reflected in this forecast, is for a ridge to begin building over the west coast on Tuesday. This would lead to dry weather and warmer temperatures. A strong low pressure system is then expected to move onshore but the timing is very uncertain. The current indication is for it to begin impacting Nevada on Friday, but Thursday and Saturday are both supported as well. This system would likely be very similar to the one currently overhead, bringing cool temperatures and rain or possibly snow, but again, model agreement and forecast confidence are very low and this forecast could change dramatically by the next update. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in cool temperatures this weekend which begin to warm Monday. High confidence in ridging followed by troughing for next week but very low confidence in timing or track. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday. Strong upper level storm system bringing rain and a few thunderstorms for all terminals. Flight conditions through Saturday, along with CIGS/VSBY will drop to MVFR/IFR levels for period of time in the heavier showers. Winds have shifted northerly for I-80 terminals at 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible. Southern terminals of KTPH and KELY winds will start SW at 10 to 20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimal Fire weather concerns through Saturday night as rainfall, mountain snow, and a few embedded thunderstorms from a strong upper level storm system move across the Silver State. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Sunday through Thursday of next week will see temperatures recover back into the upper 60s but a second upper trough pushing into the region behind the first will keep conditions unsettled with a low 10% to 20% chance of showers. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98